Most Likely to Succeed

For nearly a half-century now, Mao Tse-tung and Chou En-lai have loomed large on the world's stage. Who will eventually replace them?

Occupying prominent front-row seats on the rostrum at the recent National People's Congress were sixteen Chinese leaders, any one of whom could one day rule their country. They are the je-hsin--the Chinese expression for the ambitious, the zealous, the hot-hearted. Most likely to succeed: the diminutive (5 ft.) Teng Hsiao-ping, 70, who has achieved the most spectacular political comeback in Communist China's history. The congress named him first among Chou's twelve Vice Premiers, just two days after the Central Committee had made him a Vice Chairman of the Communist Party. This adds significantly to the power Teng acquired last year when he again became a member of the Politburo. Except for Chou, no one else holds such an influential combination of state and party posts. Yet only 21 months ago, Teng was in oblivion. Denounced by the Cultural Revolution's Red Guards in 1966 as the "No. 2 capitalist roader," he was forced to give up his duties as Vice Premier and General Secretary of the party. He was reduced from one of the half a dozen or so most important figures in China to a nonperson.

Teng suddenly reappeared in April 1973 as a Vice Premier. He has since been photographed with Mao, sat in for Chou at a dozen or so state banquets for foreign dignitaries, and last year led the Chinese delegation to Manhattan for a U.N. special session on raw materials.

After his return to power, Teng at first seemed unsure of himself. During meetings with foreigners he perched on the edge of his chair (a traditional Chinese sign of subservience), speaking quietly and only when spoken to. In recent months, all that has changed. Visitors have observed Teng lounging casually and sounding off in extremely earthy language. His quip that the U.S. is a "fat man" who is gradually being "carved up by the Soviets" has been repeated all over China.

During a discussion last November with a delegation of U.S. university presidents, notes Boston University Sinologist Merle Goldman, "He seemed to be totally in control, saying anything he wanted." He described himself as a product of "the university of life, and that university has no date of graduation." Then Teng startled his guests by adding: "The day I meet God is when I will graduate, but who knows what grades I will get from God?" Later, the delegation's Chinese translator pointedly emphasized that "Mr. Teng might see God, but the rest of us are going to see Marx."

Throughout his career, Teng has shown little respect for ideology. "It does not matter whether a cat is black or white," he has said, "so long as it catches mice." This irreverent pragmatism has earned him the hatred of the radicals. Yet even his critics acknowledge his intelligence and ability as a skillful administrator; he is credited with having helped restore China's economy after the Great Leap Forward.

Teng is thought to support Chou's policy of improved relations with the U.S. and has emphasized that "it is the Soviet Union that is China's enemy." Although some Western experts argue that Teng is overrated and that his power depends almost completely on Chou's patronage, most feel that if Chou's health should deteriorate further, Teng will be the front runner for the premiership; if a collective leadership should follow Mao's meeting with Karl Marx, Teng will almost certainly be a major participant.

Teng's most formidable rival appears to be Politburo Member Chang Chun-chiao, 64. Not only has Chang just been made Second Vice Premier, but he was also given the symbolically important task of presenting the new constitution to the congress.

Chang used his position as editor of Shanghai's Liberation Daily to back the Cultural Revolution. As head of Shanghai's Communist Party (in effect, mayor of China's biggest and most industrialized city) from 1968 until last year, however, he grew increasingly pragmatic. He may play a key role in bridging differences between radicals and moderates.

Chang shares with Teng the day-to-day running of China. He is also thought to be the de facto General Secretary of the party--the position Teng once held.

Other possible, though less likely contenders:

> Yeh Chien-ying, 76, the new Minister of Defense (a post that had been vacant since the death of Lin Piao in 1971). A member of the Communist Party since 1927, Yeh drafted the military plan for Mao's legendary Long March. Though he is a grizzled old soldier, he shares the firmly held belief of Mao and Chou that the army must always be subordinate to the Communist Party. Yeh once told Henry Kissinger that he had never dreamed that the Chinese revolution would come so far. Although Yeh's advanced age is an obstacle, he too could go farther than he ever dreamed--as head of a caretaker regime.

> Chiang Ching, 60, the onetime movie actress and Mao's fourth wife, is the most prominent of the radicals who rocketed to power during the Cultural Revolution. Many have long regarded her as a leading candidate to succeed her husband. From her seat on the Politburo, she has wielded considerable power and was probably a major sponsor of the anti-Confucius campaign. But the military distrusts her, and the moderates hate her vengefulness and capriciousness. In China's current sober climate, Chiang Ching has become the butt of salacious jokes and comparisons with the notorious 7th century Empress Dowager Wu. At the recent congress she not only was denied the Ministry of Culture, which she coveted, but according to all reports did not address the delegates. When Mao dies, his wife's political power may expire with him, although she may continue to play some public role.

>Wang Hung-wen, 39, in theory has been the No. 3 man since his meteoric rise in August 1973, when he was suddenly named to the Politburo, made a Vice Chairman, and listed just below Mao and Chou. Not much has been seen of Wang since; he made no public statement during the anti-Confucius campaign. A committed radical and protege of Mme. Mao, he may feel that a low profile is the best policy for survival at this time. He played no role at the People's Congress and was given no government post. Nonetheless, Wang retains his powerful position in the party; his good looks, humble background, lack of college education and magnetism make him popular with China's big labor groups and--perhaps most important --with Mao. And with his youth, Wang can afford to wait a long, long time.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.