No Time for Post-Mortems

As Tory M.P.s trickled into Committee Room 14 of the House of Commons last week to vote on the leadership of their party, former Prime Minister Edward Heath had every reason to feel confident that he would be reelected. After all, the polls showed that he was the first choice of 63% of all Tory supporters; he had been endorsed by virtually every member of the Conservatives' shadow Cabinet, as well as by hundreds of local Tory associations across Britain. But the results of the secret ballot were a shock: maverick M.P. Margaret Thatcher (see box) received 130 votes to 119 for Heath and 16 for patrician M.P. Hugh Fraser (there were eleven abstentions). After consulting with friends and political aides, Heath announced that he would not be a candidate in the second and third rounds of voting--required because Mrs. Thatcher failed by nine votes to get an absolute majority.

"It has been a great privilege to serve my party as its leader and my country as its Prime Minister," said Heath as he stepped down as Tory chief. "I should like to thank all those who through the years, in hard times as well as good, have given me their support and friendship."

To some political observers, the real surprise was not that Heath went down to defeat but that he had stayed in command of the party as long as he had. His general-election record was poor (one win and three losses to Harold Wilson's Labor!tes). He also had a largely well-deserved reputation for refusing to take anyone's counsel but his own, as well as an unendearing public image as a prickly, self-righteous schoolmaster. Paradoxically, some of the handicaps that led to his downfall had helped keep him in power. After ten years of Heath's lofty exercise of party leadership, the Conservatives were left without anyone of even vaguely comparable experience or stature to turn to. In a recent pro-Heath editorial, The Economist magazine labeled all of Heath's Tory colleagues "pygmies"--adding that Heath had made them so. In a sense, anyone who toppled Heath would have had to be a dark-horse candidate.

One Nation. Some of Mrs. Thatcher's support undoubtedly came from disgruntled backbench M.P.s who felt that their talent had gone unrecognized and untapped by Heath. Most of her votes, however, came from the party's right wing, which believed that Heath's Disraeli-inspired "one nation" policy --particularly his publicly expressed willingness to join Labor in a coalition government--constituted a betrayal of traditional Tory principles. Although Heath's gruff confrontation tactics with Britain's powerful miners' union cost the Tories the general elections last February, his more mellow conciliatory tone in the unsuccessful October campaign cost him the support of party hardliners. The right wing also bridled at Heath's use of government intervention to prop up ailing firms and restrain wage demands.

Despite her impressive showing last week, Mrs. Thatcher is not ensured a victory in the next rounds of balloting. She may have drawn a sizable number of protest votes that will now be split between the four candidates who did not enter the first round out of personal loyalty to Heath. Her strongest opponent is William Whitelaw, 56, who became party chairman last year after a universally acclaimed performance as Heath's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. The jovial, bushy-browed Whitelaw's greatest asset may be his incorrigible amiability. But his critics contend that he lacks both the temperament and the intellect to deal with the heated polemic exchanges that characterize parliamentary debate. Especially in the critical field of economics, Whitelaw would have a hard time standing up to the combined dialectics and expertise of Prime Minister Harold Wilson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey.

The other candidates are: James Prior, 47, a liberal Tory who is shadow Secretary of Employment; John Peyton, 56, a traditional, partisan Tory who is shadow leader of the House; and Sir Geoffrey Howe, 50, a liberal opposition spokesman on social affairs. Of these three, only Prior is considered a serious contender, but all of them could siphon off support from Mrs. Thatcher.

Although they will split the "stop Thatcher" vote on the second ballot, they are expected to rally behind White-law--the odds-on favorite--in the third.

In stepping down as party chief, Heath is not abandoning politics. He will retain his seat in Commons and will serve as the Conservatives' chief pro-Common Market spokesman in the national referendum that Wilson plans to hold before the end of June. Behind the scenes, Heath will be working hard to see that the Tories do not drift too far to the right. In this endeavor, he will have plenty of backbench support; even M.P.s who voted against Heath were touched by the personal sadness of this formidable, lonely man going down to unexpected defeat. But with the focus turning immediately to the next phase of elections, there was little time for sentimental postmortems. As the notoriously hardheaded Mrs. Thatcher put it, "I'll always be fond of dear Ted, but there's no sympathy in politics."

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