The Public: Little Confidence in Ford or Congress

As the recession has deepened, so has the gloomy outlook of the American people. One out of three now fears losing his or her job because of the economy, and a slightly higher proportion reports itself in serious financial trouble and deeply worried about unpaid bills and shrinking savings. Even worse, only about one in five Americans has much confidence in the ability of either President Ford or Congress to deal with economic problems. As a result, two-thirds of the public think that the country is in deep trouble; almost half fear that the U.S. is headed straight for a severe depression.

That pessimistic picture was drawn from the latest TIME Soundings, a quarterly survey of the mood, temper and outlook of Americans. Soundings consists of a series of political and social indicators that were developed for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc., the New York-based public opinion research firm. The most recent results were based on telephone interviews conducted in late January, tabulated and analyzed in February, with a representative sample of 1,046 Americans of voting age. Results for each individual survey have an error factor of plus or minus 3%; in estimating trends from one quarter to another, the error factor is plus or minus 4%.

ECONOMIC STRESS. In recent months, the focus of public concern has shifted from inflation to recession. Asked which they fear more, 52% of those surveyed said recession and 42% said inflation--almost an exact reversal of the figures tabulated three months ago. The reason seems to be that fear of unemployment has come to overshadow public concern about inflation's effects on savings and food, which peaked last fall and have actually declined since. This was shown when people were asked whether they worry a lot about the following:

Fall Winter

High cost of food: 80% 70%

Saving for the future: 50 40

Savings wiped out by inflation: 54 48

Not being able to keep up with bills: 36 38

Meeting rent and mortgage costs: 38 45

Loss of job because of the economy: 27 33

The number of Americans in immediate economic distress, as opposed to those merely worried about their economic future, has predictably continued to rise, but the rate of increase has slowed. The winter survey found that 35% of those interviewed were in serious economic trouble, up from 23% last spring and 33% last fall.

NATIONAL MOOD. The indicator that evaluates the state of the nation's morale and confidence in the future, the national mood, is now lower than it was even at the worst of the Watergate crisis. Some 77% said that they think things are going badly in the country, up from 69% in the fall and spring of last year.

The public, moreover, has become increasingly disenchanted with President Gerald Ford. Confidence in his ability to handle the economy has dwindled, while confidence in Congress has increased, though it still remains low.

This was shown when people were asked who they thought could best deal with economic problems. The responses, compared with those to the same questions last fall:

CONFIDENCE IN FORD

Fall Winter

A lot: 19% 21%

Some: 60 49

None: 15 28

CONFIDENCE IN CONGRESS

Fall Winter

A lot: 12% 20%

Some: 60 54

None: 25 22

ENERGY TAXES. Despite the low confidence in political leaders, people clearly want action from them on energy and economic policy. By 55% to 34%, those polled preferred gasoline rationing to a tax that would increase gasoline prices. Even Republicans looked with more favor on rationing than on proposed efforts to cut consumption through higher prices (45% v. 43%), while Democrats backed rationing by more than 2 to 1.

To stimulate the economy, 78% of those polled thought limiting a tax rebate to lower-and middle-income taxpayers would be best, while only 19% supported Ford's proposal of an across-the-board rebate up to a maximum of $1,000. There was strong sentiment for tax incentives for business to help the economy; 78% favored the idea, up eight points from last fall. By heavy majorities, people favored bringing back wage-price controls (69% agreed), cutting defense spending (72%), reducing foreign aid (82%) and loosening credit and mortgage money (82%).

THE CIA. Soundings also explored Americans' feelings on other issues. The analysts found that the accusations of illegal domestic spying by the CIA have left the public indifferent; 59% of those polled felt that the charges had been inflated out of proportion, while 29% believed that the agency had broken the law. Even if the charges are proved to be true, 52% said that the CIA affair would not upset them as much as they had been by the Watergate scandals.

VIET NAM. The analysts also found minimal support among those surveyed for increased military aid to South Viet Nam. Only 7% backed Ford's request for an increase in aid, while 30% wanted it kept at the present level and 54% favored a reduction. Even among Republicans, only 9% supported an increase in aid.

CANDIDATES. As the recession has deepened, it has sharply eroded public interest in electing Ford in 1976. As recently as last fall, 56% of those polled found Ford acceptable as a candidate, and only 24% considered him to be unacceptable. In the winter survey, 48% found him acceptable, and 41% called him unacceptable.

But there has been no parallel increase in enthusiasm for his potential Democratic opponents. The pollsters found that among the announced Democratic candidates, only Senator Henry M. Jackson is known to a majority of voters (59%). But of the 54% who expressed any enthusiasm for a candidate to oppose Ford, only 8% named Jackson. The favorite, with 34%, was Senator Edward Kennedy.

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