Teddy: Running or Not?

Teddy Kennedy took advantage of the congressional Easter recess to go back to Massachusetts and keep his fences well mended with the adoring home folks last week. His suits were uncharacteristically rumpled, his shoes unshined, his waistline bulging more than it did a few months ago. But he was tan, handsomely graying and in top political form. Meeting high school students, he did not lecture them but sounded out their opinions on national policy. At Grafton, a local policeman mumbled about Chappaquiddick and complained that Kennedy had swiped his Bic pen to sign autographs. But when he caught sight of the Senator, the cop shook his hand enthusiastically and said,

"You're the greatest." When Kennedy was speaking at Newton, a baby started to cry, and his mother got up to take him out of the room. Quipped Teddy: "That's all right, let him stay -- maybe we'll make a Democrat out of him."

Was Senator Edward Kennedy, 43, running for the presidency? Despite his "firm, final and unconditional" announcement last September that he would not accept the nomination, the talk that he will run is stronger than ever. The speculation results partly from some Democrats' yearnings for a return to Camelot, but mostly from the failure of any of the party's five announced candidates to excite much support.

Party Rules. "The Kennedy candidacy idea comes up in every conversation about 1976," says New Jersey Democratic Chairman James Dugan. Phoenix Attorney William Mahoney Jr., a Kennedy confidant, echoes the feelings of many Democrats: "I see no chance whatever that he will campaign for the nomination. But he could literally be compelled to let his name go to the convention floor." Adds a Republican state chairman from the Midwest: "He's the most exciting thing they've got."

Kennedy holds a long lead over other Democrats in many polls. The latest TIME Soundings conducted by Yankelovich, Skelly & Wright listed eleven possible candidates from both parties; 34% of those who responded positively toward any candidate said that they were enthusiastic about Kennedy. The next highest Democrat was George Wallace, with 13%; President Ford got 12%.

The new party rules also enhance the possibility of a brokered convention, which might draft Kennedy. At their miniconvention in Kansas City, the Democrats did away with the winner-take-all formula in primary elections, replacing it with proportional representation. Delegates from each of the more than 25 states that hold primaries will support candidates in proportion to how well each does in the primary race. Unless a candidate wins big in most of the primaries, it will be tough for him to get enough delegates to win on the first ballot of the national convention. Says a top aide to Democratic National Committee Chairman Robert Strauss: "I can see the convention going to the seventh or eighth ballot, with Scoop Jackson and George Wallace holding the largest blocs of delegates, but neither able to make it over the top, and neither willing to give in. Then I can see the convention turning to Kennedy -- and I can see him accepting the nomination."

For all this, friends and aides are convinced that Kennedy does not want the nomination, at least not next year. Wife Joan, 38, continues to suffer from emotional problems. Teddy Jr., 13, has adjusted manfully to the amputation of his lower right leg in 1973 to arrest bone cancer; he continues to undergo treatment. Kennedy also must go on serving as surrogate father to Ethel Kennedy's eleven children. Above all, if Teddy were a candidate, the many unanswered questions about Chappaquiddick would be reopened. But if he were nominated at the last minute, there would be much less time to probe them thoroughly than if he were running hard now.

Kennedy has raised no money for a presidential campaign and has formed no nationwide organization. Yet he is the candidate who would have the least trouble doing so. He has, however, privately assured other candidates -- including Washington's Jackson and Georgia's Jimmy Carter -- that he will not run.

During his politicking back home in Massachusetts last week, Kennedy issued no press releases, made no major policy statements. His largest press conference was attended mainly by reporters from Newton North High School. The only national reporter who accompanied him was TIME'S Stanley Cloud. Kennedy told Cloud: "I'm not running for President, and I will not accept the nomination at a deadlocked convention. I don't think it will be deadlocked. There'll be a sifting out of the various candidates, and someone will win a first-ballot victory." Are any of the announced candidates unacceptable to him? "Just Wallace."

Kennedy is resigned to the fact that pressure on him to enter the race -- or, conversely, to withdraw even more decisively -- will continue. "It's going to go back and forth like that," he says. "I can't worry about it." He does not intend to make an even more emphatic Shermanesque disclaimer. Even if he did, it would not be totally believed by either those who most fear him or those who venerate him. As the last male family member of his generation, Edward Moore Kennedy in some minds will always be marked out for the presidency -- whether he is running or not.

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