How the Masters Will Be Won

Can Jack Nicklaus keep up his recent winning pace to collect his fifth Masters title? Can Johnny Miller, who missed the cut at the Heritage Classic, regain the winning touch that earned him three titles earlier this season? How will Lee Elder handle the pressure of being the first black to compete for the winner's green jacket? These are among the tantalizing questions that will draw thousands of fans to Augusta, Ga., this week, and millions more to their television sets to view golf's most notable rite of spring--the Masters tournament.

Most will look for answers on the glamorous closing holes of the difficult 7,020-yd., par-72 course. If so, they will not see how the Masters is likely to be won. The tournament's toughest holes are far out on the course. That is the conclusion of Sam Snead, who has won the Masters three times (1949, '52, '54), and of Bill Inglish, tournament statistician. After studying the 1,292 individual rounds and more than 95,000 shots played at the Masters in the past five years, Inglish found that Augusta's six most difficult tests are not where they are supposed to be. For example, the long par fives, including holes 13 and 15, play under par more frequently than any other holes. And Augusta's two closing holes, both notoriously troublesome par fours, have not ruined as many scores as fans think. On the eve of the 39th Masters, Snead played and analyzed the six most challenging holes for TIME with Senior Correspondent (and twelve-handicapper) John Steele. Here is Snead's personal vade mecum:

HOLE 4: 220 yds., par three (average score: 3.27). This hole often makes you think you're playing in a wind tunnel because of tall trees behind and alongside of the green. The wind is usually against you, but it shifts quickly, and you've got to watch it like a sparrow hawk. Once when I was paired with Hogan, Ben hit a full drive into a gale and he was short. Moments later when I hit, my drive carried the green and almost landed out of play in the azaleas behind. The wind had died. It takes a 195-yd. hit, often with a one-iron, to carry the front bunker. The green is so big you've got to hit directly to the pin or risk three putts.

HOLE 5: 450 yds., par four (average score: 4.32). This dogleg can be a horrible hole. It's the kind where you like to make your par and go on about your business. On the drive, you've got to skirt the left-hand traps if you're going to get home in two shots. By hugging the left you can cut at least 25 yds. off your second shot, but it's a dangerous business because of trees on the left, and if you have a hook, forget it. Even with a well-placed drive, you've got to burn your second shot--usually a one-or two-iron for me. You have to drop the ball right on top of the plateau on the green or face a 45-ft., nerve-tester approach putt that will break in two directions.

HOLE 7: 365 yds., par four (average score: 4.26). This is one hole on which you've got to ease it right down the middle of the fairway. Right or left won't do because branches on the trees there aren't cut back and you've only got about a 25-yd.-wide landing strip to have a clean second shot at the green. Jack Nicklaus uses a one-iron here for accuracy, but I'd rather take a chance with the driver and leave myself a pitch with the wedge rather than a seven-or eight-iron approach. On the green there's only 35 ft. between the front and back traps, so you've got to put some teeth on the ball. Bob Jones once saw Nicklaus wedge his second shot two feet from the cup here and said, "Mr. Nicklaus plays a game with which I am not familiar."

HOLE 10: 485 yds., par four (average score: 4.34). This is one of the holes that make Augusta National a long-driver's course. You've got to flirt with the trees on the left, but gently. Too much left and you're in the woods. The ideal tee shot is a low, running draw that goes slightly left of center in order to catch a steep slope tilting toward the green, leaving you a two-or three-iron home. If you fade your drive to the right, you've got an impossible downhill-sidehill shot that is at least two club numbers longer. From the right side you can't hit the green, even with a three-wood, and you may bury yourself in the big fairway bunker. Because there's usually a pretty good wind sweeping the green, you should cut your second shot a bit to hold the green, and you must hit high or you'll roll off the back edge.

HOLE 11: 445 yds., par four (average score: 4.32). Here you really want to crank it up because your drive has to carry the crest of a hill. It's another hole favoring the big hitter, and your tee shot should be dead straight--the hardest kind of golf shot to hit. But it's the second shot that's the real tester here, 185-200 yds. if the pin is placed on the back edge of the green or to the left near the pond. But forget the pin placement and always --I mean always--hit to the right side of the green. If you hit to the left and miss, you're in the pond and have an automatic six.

HOLE 12: 155 yds., par three (average score: 3.36). I agree with Arnold Palmer that this is the toughest par three in golf. It hurts more of us in Masters play than any other hole on the course. First you've got to keep reminding yourself that the wind may blow from behind you off the tee, but you can be sure it's against you at the green. If it's a choice between a six-and seven-iron off the tee, always grab for the six-iron so you can clear the creek. The right side of the green is a coffin for me because if the pin is cut to the left it's impossible for me to get down in two putts for par.

If you can make the 10th, 11th and 12th holes in par, you'll pick up a stroke on the rest of the field. I won it all on the 12th in 1952 on the final round. I hit a six-iron into the water, took my penalty shot, and then skulled the ball into the grass bank in front of the green. It looked like a certain six or worse, but I wedged out stone-dead into the cup and saved my lead.

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