Those Friendly Russians

Despite his unusually low-keyed manner, Portuguese Premier Vasco dos Santos Gonc,alves could not conceal his anxiety about the troubled days his country faces. In a wide-ranging press conference last week in Lisbon, the intense, hard-driven Premier 1) announced a plan to make the Armed Forces Movement and its 28-member Revolutionary Council a formal part of the government for up to five years; 2) pledged that Lisbon would continue its commitment to NATO, although he added that the Lajes airbase in the Azores could not be used to resupply Israel in the event of a new Middle East war; and 3) warned that multinational corporations opposed to Portugal's "transition to socialism" have tried to damage the country's economy by withdrawing investment, and that a financial boycott by Western powers might follow.

The Armed Forces Movement's insistence upon a pact guaranteeing its control of the country's immediate political future came inopportunely in the midst of campaigning for the constituent assembly to be chosen next week. Gonc,alves explained that the pact was necessary in order to preserve "the victories we have obtained in various fields, political and economic." Six of the country's twelve legal political parties ratified the plan, but some did so simply to prevent the M.F.A. from becoming a "prisoner of the Communist Party." That may happen anyway. Under the present terms of the pact, the M.F.A.-dominated Revolutionary Council will be the highest body in the land, with powers to both legislate and administrate. The new President of Portugal will be chosen by an electoral college composed of 240 civilians and 240 military men. The Communists are not expected to win the election (the polls give them only about 10% of the vote), but they do have strong support within the armed forces.

Washington has adopted an exceedingly low profile toward Portugal, hoping that the West Europeans would take the diplomatic initiative. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt has proposed that the European Economic Community mount a joint effort to support Portugal's moderates with increased aid, trade ties and cultural links, but so far it has not got off the ground. What worries many Western observers is the growing attention paid to Lisbon's leftist government by the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

Within three months after last April's revolution, the Soviets had established a skeleton embassy staff under Ambassador Arnold I. Kalinin, 45, a smooth diplomat who had previously served as charge d'affaires in Havana. Today the Russian embassy has an official staff of 15--roughly the same size as the American mission. Perhaps more important, there are about 120 Russians and non-diplomats employed as administrative staff and as representatives of Aeroflot, Tass and the Novotny Bank.

Little Help. How much help the Soviets are giving to Portugal's resurgent Communist Party is a matter of conjecture in Lisbon. Some estimates put the figure at $40 million to $50 million over the past year, much of it donated by Russian and East European trade union movements. Most Western diplomats believe that the highly organized Portuguese party, which survived five decades of underground existence under right-wing dictatorship, needs little outside financial help. "The Portuguese Communist Party does not need money," insists one diplomat. "The party is getting money from the banks, from private businesses. Since the banks are now operated by Communist-controlled unions, no one is going to say anything about it."

Octavio Pato, Portugal's No. 1 Communist after Party Chief Alvaro Cunhal, told TIME'S Martha de la Cal, "The money the party receives comes from its members and from contributions we get at rallies." The party's exact membership is a secret, but Western diplomats estimate it to be about 15,000. Pato added that when the party needs furniture or a car with driver, a notice asking for volunteers is simply put up on the headquarters' bulletin boards, and they always come forward.

Credit Terms. Soviet embassy staffers have established close relations with senior officials in such key ministries as finance, agriculture, fisheries and labor, offering advice and technical help. Says one Western analyst: "The main effort of the Soviet diplomats in Lisbon is being channeled in this direction rather than in guiding the Communist Party or engaging in large-scale KGB [Soviet secret police] activities." Beyond that, Warsaw Pact nations, led by Moscow, are now giving Portugal considerable economic aid in the form of favorable trade agreements and generous credit terms. Lisbon recently agreed to buy 1 million tons of crude oil from Russia, and has made other deals with East bloc nations for the purchase of commodities.

Despite the Soviet Union's pursuit of economic and political influence, few diplomats in Lisbon see the immediate danger of a Czechoslovakia- or Cuba-style coup. For one thing, foreign observers think it unlikely that Moscow would want to assume the burden of supporting the poorest country in Western Europe. For another, a Communist triumph in Portugal would threaten Moscow's policy of accommodation with the West. Indeed, London and Washington have warned the Soviets that an attempted Communist takeover in Lisbon would not only strike a "severe" blow at detente but might jeopardize the upcoming European Security Conference summit and Moscow's long-sought aim to formalize its borders with Europe.

The Russians would probably be satisfied with a coalition of left-wing militants and moderates pursuing a neutralist foreign policy. This does not mean that Portugal would necessarily pull out of NATO, in which it is a militarily feeble partner. Lisbon's contribution to European defense strategy has always been minimal; the Lajes base in the Azores and the Iberlant communications center are useful but are not today regarded by NATO experts as essential to the Continent's defense. Nonetheless, Portugal's loss to NATO could be serious, both symbolically and psychologically, should it come about either through formal withdrawal or because of anti-Western policies in Lisbon.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.