The Importance of Sounding Earnest

Two separate and distinct political campaigns were under way in Washington last week. One, of course, was the gearing up of machinery that staffers hope will bring Gerald Ford a second term. The other was the President's campaign to convince worried leaders of Pacific nations that despite the fall of South Viet Nam, the U.S. intends to remain a superpower in the region and that its commitments and promises can still be relied upon.

In rapid succession the President met with four Prime Ministers--New Zealand's Wallace Rowling, Australia's Gough Whitlam, Britain's Harold Wilson and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew--all on their way from a British Commonwealth meeting in Jamaica. To each, Ford gave the same basic message: despite widely voiced doubts in Asia and Europe (see story page 29) about America's dependability as an ally, in the wake of Communist victories in Cambodia and South Viet Nam, those "setbacks in no way weakened U.S. resolve to stand by its allies and friends in Asia and elsewhere." At his press conference last week, Ford forcefully struck the same note, stressing that the U.S. "can move ahead even in the Pacific ... It's my aim to tie more closely together South Korea and the U.S., to reaffirm our commitment to Taiwan, to work more closely with Indonesia, with the Philippines and with other Pacific nations."

Some of the Asian nations he cited nonetheless have valid reasons for fearing that the Communist victories have created not just ripples but potential shock waves. Laos is already feeling the impact (see story page 28); Korea could be next, in the opinion of many South Koreans. "It is obvious that the Communists will attempt to create another Indochina situation in the Korean peninsula," noted a resolution adopted last week by the [South] Korean Newspaper Association. North Korean Dictator Kim II Sung has done nothing to alleviate the South's fears; in Peking last month he warned that "we are prepared for war. We will not hesitate to launch even war for the revolution in South Korea."

Mutual Defense. Washington feels that Seoul's anxiety is at least slightly exaggerated; many experts expect Peking or Moscow (or both) to restrain Kim (TIME, May 12). Seoul, however, still has cause for concern. Communist victories in Indochina may so embolden North Korea that it will once again send its forces across the 38th parallel, perhaps gambling that South Korean President Park Chung Hee's repressive regime (TIME, April 28) has alienated the populace. Kim may also feel that the U.S., which has a mutual defense treaty with South Korea (backed by the presence of nearly 40,000 American soldiers), is temporarily so weakened in its foreign policy that it would not respond effectively on Seoul's behalf. Undoubtedly, Pyongyang is aware of a recent U.S. poll that shows 65% of those questioned would oppose U.S. intervention in a new Korean war; only 14% would back it.

As President Ferdinand Marcos explained last week, the Philippines are directly threatened not by external aggression but by "indigenous rebel forces" that get "arms, funds and supplies" from outside. Marcos was referring to two movements. One is the 2,000-member Maoist New People's Army, which may be receiving weapons and ammunition from Peking for its terrorist activities in the hill country of southern Luzon. More serious is a Moslem insurgency movement in western Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago, which demands creation of a Moslem-run semiautonomous state.

For two years Marcos has been trying to suppress the nearly 20,000 Moslem rebels, but his troops have suffered heavy casualties in the unfamiliar terrain; moreover the fighting has imposed a heavy drain on the national treasury. In recent weeks Marcos has questioned the value of the U.S.-Philippine mutual defense treaty. Some observers believe that he wants the existing treaty strengthened so that it unequivocally commits Washington to aid the Philippines if they are attacked and perhaps even provide some help in suppressing the insurgents.

Australia and New Zealand face neither threats of external attack nor internal insurgency, but both nations are concerned with maintaining stability in the western Pacific. That means preventing any major power--such as China, the Soviet Union or even Japan --from dominating the region; this goal requires an active American involvement. During his talks at the White House, New Zealand's Rowling told Ford that his country "welcomes American interest in the region."

Clear Terms. The form that interest takes will in large part be determined by the outcome of the reassessment of Asian policy now under way in Washington. It will surely reaffirm the credibility of U.S. commitments; a top presidential aide acknowledges, however, that "there can be no ultimate reassurance until we demonstrate by our actions that our words mean what we say."

Yet Asian leaders are now well aware that Congress has the power to oppose any new U.S. military involvement in the Orient. Thus the uncertainties of the congressional response to some future challenge to an American commitment complicated Ford's attempts to sound reassuring. Singapore's Lee, who has called the events in Viet Nam and Cambodia "an unmitigated disaster," sampled sentiment on Capitol Hill and was far from reassured. As a result, in his toast at the formal state dinner given for him at the White House, Lee bluntly urged the President and Congress to "speak in one voice on basic issues of foreign policy, and in clear and unmistakable terms. Then friends and allies will know where they stand, and others will not be able to misunderstand when crossing the line from insurgency to open aggression."

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