"It All Hinges On Franco and God"

For an ailing man of 82, it was a heroic performance. For a full 90 minutes last week, General Francisco Franco, dictator of Spain for the past 36 years, stood at attention on a gold-railed rostrum, taking the salute as 11,000 troops and "Forces of Public Order" paraded down Madrid's broad Paseo de la Castellana on the annual "Day of Victory" celebrating the final Falangist victory. Franco, unassisted, then descended from the dais, climbed into his huge, pre-World War II Rolls-Royce and, again standing, was slowly driven off to cries of "Franco! Franco! Franco!"

The physically demanding public performance was clearly designed to demonstrate el Caudillo's remarkable recovery from a near-fatal stroke last summer. Yet even that performance could not overcome Spaniards' feelings that Franco's days in power are numbered--perhaps only until July 18, the anniversary of the Falangist uprising in 1936. From Madrid, Bureau Chief Gavin Scott cabled the following report:

The 17-month-old government of Premier Carlos Arias Navarro seems increasingly helpless in the face of Spain's mounting problems. In the country's four northern provinces, for example, Arias has been unable to check the terrorism of Basque separatists. After the small secret ETA, the most radical of the Basque groups, recently shot five policemen, the Guardia Civil retaliated by sweeping through the areas around Bilbao and San Sebastian. Madrid admits to the arrest of 200 suspects, but a group of Basque lawyers claims that the number jailed totals 2,000. In the past month the government has also detained and beaten two Catholic priests suspected of aiding the separatists. So explosive has the situation in Basque country become that the regime has banned "all information and commentary referring ... to terrorist activity."

Nomad Independence. Spain's sole remaining colony, the Spanish Sahara, has also been an increasing source of trouble for the regime. During the past five years, Madrid has invested $400 million in developing the colony's rich phosphate deposits. Now Spain is planning to abandon the whole area. The reason: threats by neighboring Arab states to liberate all or part of the sparsely populated (60,000 nomads), mineral-rich region. Pressure on Madrid intensified last month when ten Spanish soldiers based in the Sahara disappeared. Their fate remains unknown. It has also been reported that Moroccan troops fired on two Spanish helicopters. Another headache for Madrid is the Prolisario Front, an indigenous nomad independence movement thought to be backed by both Algeria and Libya; last week the Front captured 14 Arab members of the colony's territorial police.

Finally giving in to the pressure, Madrid last week declared its intention "to transform the sovereignty over the territory as soon as possible in the form and manner that best suits the inhabitants." While Franco must regret losing the valuable phosphate deposits, he has undoubtedly learned from the Portuguese experience just how costly an attempt to hang on to a colony can be. Moreover, as a Madrid University political scientist notes: "What this government does not need is a new international problem."

Older problems continue to plague the regime: strikes, 24% inflation, student unrest and increasingly sharp criticisms by the Roman Catholic hierarchy (TIME, March 31). Even the right has publicly protested; late last month, while police watched benignly, about 200 rightists marched through Madrid distributing leaflets calling upon Arias to resign in order "to prevent ugly things from happening."

In addition to its domestic difficulties, Spain continues to find itself isolated in Europe. All attempts at associating Madrid with either NATO or the Common Market are adamantly opposed. Europe's liberals and socialists abhor any link with Spain so long as Franco, the symbol of the anti-Republican forces in the Spanish Civil War, continues to reign in Madrid.

It thus appears that none of Spain's problems can be resolved until Franco steps aside or dies. "It all hinges on Franco and God," sighs a veteran Western diplomat in Madrid. Yet there is no one in the regime or in the dictator's immediate entourage with the temerity to suggest to el Caudillo that his hour to depart has arrived.

When Franco does go, his successor will be Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon y Borbon, 37, who has been personally tutored by el Caudillo for more than a quarter-century. At one point during last week's parade, Franco muttered something and the ever respectful prince leaped to the dictator's side, said a few words and then fell back into the shadow. The scene tells much about Spain's past and future rulers.

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