Sheep to the Fold

"When war breaks out," observed Britain's Laborite Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey, "truth is the first casualty."

What prompted his observation was a charge by left-wing Industry Minister Anthony Wedgwood Benn that membership in the Common Market had already cost Britain 500,000 jobs, about half the current unemployment. This fanciful statistic (simplistically based on Britain's trade deficit) was only one of the wild "facts" that flew to and fro as Britain prepared to vote this week on whether to remain in the Common Market. Pro-European zealots hinted ominously that a no vote would benefit the Communists. Anti-Europeans countered by charging that the American CIA, which helped to finance some European-unity groups back in the 1950s, has been secretly marshaling the yes vote. In a sermon at St. Paul's Cathedral, the Bishop of London tried to elevate the level of debate. Taking his text from the Gospel of St. John ("There shall be one fold and one shepherd"), the bishop implied that the Lord himself was a staunch pro-Marketeer.

No Firm Evidence. On the more mundane penny and pound level, the pro and con arguments seem to consist, as Tory Shadow Foreign Secretary Reginald Maudling put it, "of diametrically opposed conclusions drawn from the same inadequate facts." Pro-Marketeers, rather indifferently led by Prime Minister Harold Wilson, himself a convert to that position, argue that continued membership will lead to more jobs and lower food prices for Britons. Anti-Marketeers on both far right and far left say that it will lead to fewer jobs and higher food prices. And an exhaustive study by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research shows that, 2 1/2 years after Britain joined the Common Market, there is still no "firm evidence" that its entry affected the country's economy one way or the other.

Despite the cloud of conflicting claims, British voters seem to have made up their minds on the issue. In February of 1974 when Wilson first proposed the unprecedented referendum (Parliament had,.after all, legally and officially approved the treaty to join Europe), the anti-Marketeers enjoyed a 58%-to-28% majority, with an important 14% undecided. Since last March, however, pollsters have reported an amazingly consistent 2 to 1 majority in favor of continued membership. The latest Gallup poll showed 61% intending to vote yes, 29% no and only 10% undecided. Most political analysts see the turnabout as a sign that many formerly skeptical Britons are now prepared to believe that "Harold knows best." The pro-Europe forces also profited from world market fluctuations that at least temporarily have made food prices lower within the EEC than outside it.

One of the most striking aspects of the debate is that the broader, historic issues have been so little discussed. In a recent letter to his constituents, Tory Maudling urged voters not to "rest the future of England upon this week's price of grain in Chicago, or butter in New Zealand. There are greater and more lasting issues at stake." Maudling's advice notwithstanding, it may well turn out that Wilson's deliberately low-keyed and uninspiring approach was the one best suited to produce a historic, positive result.

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