Monday, Aug. 11, 1975

Departure of a Symbol

Guido Carli, it has often been said, is the Italian economy. In 14 years as governor of his country's central bank, he became the embodiment of economic responsibility, rescuing Italy from three near fatal crises and earning for the Bank of Italy a reputation as one of the few Italian institutions that function properly. So, when Carli, 61, announced in May that he intended to quit, few people believed it--especially since he added that he had been trying on and off to do so since 1970. But he did mean it, and last week the bank's general assembly accepted his resignation.

Carli chose his moment well. A year ago, Italy was on the edge of bankruptcy --the victim of higher oil prices and mismanagement by a succession of governments. Since then, the situation has improved dramatically. Italy's balance of payments deficit narrowed from $4.5 billion in the first half of 1974 to $493 million in the same period this year, inflation has been more than halved (to an annual rate of 10%), and the lira is holding steady. The main reason: tough measures dictated by Carli, including a tight credit policy (interest rates up to 20%), higher taxes and fuel prices, and temporary import restrictions.

It was the kind of rescue Carli had pulled off before, and the strain of dealing with crises apparently left him with a feeling that he had gone stale in his job. Born in the northern Italian city of Brescia, he was educated as an academic economist, but switched to banking when he discovered in 1937 that he could become a professor only by taking the job of a Jew who had been sacked by the Fascists. At the Bank of Italy, Carli learned to shrug off criticism: for a central banker, he once said, "the first quality is to be cold-blooded." But he obviously tired of the role. On the wall behind his desk hangs a portrait of St. Sebastian tied to a stake and riddled with arrows; Carli often compared the martyr's fate to his own, adding that the only difference was "that he's bound and I'm not." A few months ago, he told an interviewer that "one of the biggest ills in Italy is the immobility of top people in the world of economics and politics."

Carli's replacement will be a triumvirate headed by his longtime deputy, Paolo Baffi, 64, a retiring monetary expert whose views are not known to differ from Carli's. The others are Rinaldo Ossola, 61, a former chairman of the International Monetary Fund's Group of Ten, who is credited with the invention of Special Drawing Rights, and Mario Ercolani, also 61, until now head of the bank's foreign exchange operations. The new team appears to have won the approval of Italy's business community. Says Tire Maker Leopoldo Pirelli: "While one regrets that Carli is leaving, his successors represent the best solution." For his part, Carli vows that he will not follow the customary practice of lingering in the bank's corridors as an honorary governor. Instead, some observers suggest, he may become a politician.

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