A Country Waiting for the Roof to Fall In

Portugal's headlong plunge toward Communist rule was suddenly stalled last week, first by an outbreak of violence in the northern and central regions of the country, and then by an open split in the ruling Armed Forces Movement (M.F.A.). The split was so serious that it could easily lead to the resignation of the Communist-lining Premier, Vasco dos Santos Gonc,alves, and the beginning of a more moderate national policy that the vast majority of the Portuguese people would wholeheartedly welcome. But it could also widen to the point of civil war.

Growing Anarchy. The break in M.F.A. ranks was brought about by moderates determined to halt the gathering momentum toward Communist dictatorship. Led by former Foreign Minister Ernesto Melo Antunes, the moderates issued a petition of protest blaming the radicals--and indirectly the ruling junta--for growing anarchy, political drift and loss in confidence by the majority of the people.

Signed by nine members of the 30-man Revolutionary Council and at least 400 other officers, the manifesto quickly received the support of the commandos, the cavalry school and the paratroopers, as well as the commanders of the central and southern military regions. The junta immediately retaliated by suspending the nine dissident members of the Council for signing it. But at week's end the document was reportedly being circulated freely throughout all three branches of the armed forces, and gathering more and more signatures.

The manifesto flatly rejected as a model for Portugal a "socialist society of the East European type." Yet it warned that the country "will be fatally led" to precisely that model unless it rids itself of "a political leadership that obstinately believes that a vanguard with a very narrow social basis can make the revolution on behalf of all the people." This cannot be achieved, the document went on, "with the present leadership team, in view of its lack of credibility and manifest inability to govern."

The document was aimed point-blank at Gonc,alves, the orthodox Communists, the Communist-controlled press and labor unions. Equally determined attacks on the same targets were taking place in the tradition-bound, church-oriented regions of the country. In several towns, bloody clashes between attacking moderates and conservatives on the one side, and Communists and soldiers on the other, left at least three dead and many more wounded.

At Vila Nova de Famalic`ao, a prosperous market town 20 miles north of Oporto, Communists shot at attacking conservative militants, wounding several. Two days later, troops dispatched to protect Communist headquarters there opened fire and killed two people, a 34-year-old rightist militant and a 19-year-old male nurse named Luis Barroso, a member of the centrist Popular Democrats. Furious, hundreds of anti-Communists broke through an infantry cordon and ransacked the building.

Similar incidents took place elsewhere. In Santo Tirso, some 3,000 people attacked Communist headquarters, ripped down the party flag and set fire to office materials, chanting, "The people are against the M.F.A." and "Death to Otelo"--meaning Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, the extreme leftist head of COPCON, the country's security forces. In Fafe, Communists fired at an attacking crowd, killing one and wounding seven. Just 40 miles north of Lisbon in Bombarral, 300 demonstrators trashed the local Communist headquarters. Saraiva de Carvalho finally sent 140 naval fusiliers and 140 light-artillery men north to help restore order and prevent further outbreaks.

Ruling Troika. The members of Lisbon's junta, especially Saraiva de Carvalho, faced still other difficulties. At the Amadora commando regiment, unit members voted in Saraiva de Carvalho's presence to restore their commander, Colonel Jamie Neves, to his position; Neves, a moderate, had been ousted two weeks ago with the security chiefs approval.

With his country beset by violence. Premier Gonc,alves, a member of the ruling troika appointed two weeks ago, finally managed to put together a new cabinet. His problem had been to placate the radical, ambitious Saraiva de Carvalho and at the same time attract enough non-Communists so that the Cabinet would enjoy at least some credibility with the population. He was only partially successful. Gonc,alves, it was announced at Belem Palace, would remain as Premier; there would be no direct participation by political parties in the Cabinet--thus excluding Communist Leader Alvaro Cunhal, among others. In general, the ten-member Cabinet was split between military officers and civilians. But almost all of its members were thought to have Communist sympathies. While Saraiva de Carvalho will not serve in the Cabinet, he will remain one of the troika members as well as security boss.

Irreconcilable Positions. As the members of the new government were being sworn in at a nationally televised ceremony, Gonc,alves stood by glumly, staring at the ceiling. As one observer quipped: "You always look upward when the roof is about to fall in."

For Gonc,alves, assuming that he can manage to cling to power for a while, the immediate problem is the breach within the Armed Forces Movement. That split, however, only reflects the rapid hardening of Portugal's various political groups into irreconcilable positions. The leftists are still unwilling to share power with anybody, and the moderates show no signs of yielding meekly to leftist domination. The leading moderate, Socialist Leader Mario Soares, returned last week from a European Socialist conference in Stockholm and once again called on Gonc,alves to resign. Soares damned the ruling triumvirate as unconstitutional and issued a grim prediction for it. "Troikas never work," Soares said. "They haven't worked since Roman times."

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