Monday, Feb. 23, 1976

An Easy Rout-- and an Olive Branch

After a decisive five-day military blitz, the Soviet-backed Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (M.P.L.A.) last week triumphantly announced that it had won the seven-month-old Angolan civil war. In a Luanda interview with the Yugoslav news agency Tanjug, President Agostinho Neto held out an olive branch to former members of the two Western-backed opposition forces, the National Union for the Total Liberation of Angola (UNITA) and the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (F.N.L.A.). They would have "no problem" under his government, he insisted. But he offered virtually no hope for a conciliatory settlement with UNITA Leader Jonas Savimbi or the F.N.L.A.'s Holden Roberto. Said Neto: "We regret being forced by the treason perpetrated by [these] leaders to take steps in order to prevent new cases of slaughter, murder and unreasonable destruction of human life."

Defeat Conceded. Neither Savimbi nor Roberto had any response to Neto's victory claims. But UNITA Foreign Affairs Secretary Jorge Sangumba, in a statement from the Zambian capital of Lusaka, acknowledged that UNITA had been defeated on the field of battle. He vowed to fight on, however, and said that UNITA was already organizing guerrilla-warfare cells throughout southern Angola. But barring a direct confrontation of the M.P.L.A. and its battle-hardened Cubans with some 5,000 South African regulars dug in around the Cunene River hydroelectric complex just inside Angola, large-scale fighting appeared to be over. At week's end the M.P.L.A. was in control of all but a sparsely populated desert area in the south and a single pocket in the north (see map).

The rout began early last week when M.P.L.A. units overran Huambo (pop. 65,000), Angola's second largest city and the provisional capital of the F.N.L.A.-UNITA government. Despite UNITA claims that it had mounted a tough fight, Savimbi's forces had actually evacuated the city several hours before the M.P.L.A. entered it, possibly to avoid civilian casualties in an armed confrontation. A day later, Luanda radio announced the "glorious capture" of the key Atlantic ports of Lobito and Benguela, which with the capture of the east central Angolan town of Luso late in the week gave the M.P.L.A. full control of the strategic Benguela Railway, which spans Angola from the Atlantic to the Zaire border. The M.P.L.A. then drove eastward to take Silva Porto (now renamed Bie), site of UNlTA's military headquarters. Mean while, M.P.L.A. units in the north easily defeated a motley force of mercenaries (see following story) and F.N.L.A. troops at the Congo River port of Santo Antonio do Zaire. They were also closing in on Sao Salvador, the F.N.L.A.'S last remaining toehold.

The M.P.L.A. 's southern column, supported by Soviet T-34 tanks and helicopter gunships and spearheaded by Cubans, then rolled 200 miles beyond Huambo without opposition. The column occupied the major southern city of Sa da Bandeira (renamed Lubango), the Atlantic port of Moc,amedes, and a potential UNITA fallback headquarters at Serpa Pinto, putting them within 150 miles of the South West Africa border and the South African defense line.

UNITA was said to be carrying out a desperate contingency plan--tearing up the Benguela rails and burying them in order to delay the M.P.L.A. from putting the railroad back in operation. That scheme would not only hamper Angola's economic recovery but also inflict more punishment on Zambia and Zaire. Both countries have been strong UNITA supporters and depend heavily on the railroad for copper exports.

Equally worrisome was the fate of thousands of civilians who fled before the M.P.L.A. advance. Some 80,000 refugees were heading south, threatening to overrun four camps South Africa maintains just inside Angola, already crowded with 12,000 earlier refugees. Last week the United Nations refused to give South Africa money to deal with the additional flood, but the Red Cross promised an airlift of blankets, tents and medicine.

The rout of UNITA raised the ominous prospect of a border war between the combined M.P.L.A.-Cuban forces and the South Africans, who have now withdrawn to a 1,000-mile-long strip stretching up to 35 miles deep inside Angola. British Foreign Secretary James Callaghan warned late last week that the world faces the prospect of a "terrible war in southern Africa" unless urgent action is taken to prevent it. The most acute danger, he indicated, would be "hot pursuit" by the Cubans into South West Africa, following a successful firefight with the South African troops in the border area.

Diplomatic Coup. South African Defense Minister Pieter W. Botha insisted that his troops could hold their own against the M.P.L.A.'s powerful Soviet weaponry. Significantly, Botha did not rule out the possibility of "an understanding" with the Luanda government. The South Africans are anxious to avoid a battle around the $300 million Cunene complex, in which they have heavily invested. The project, which is scheduled to begin producing power next year, is the key to industrial and agricultural development of the disputed territory of South West Africa (also known as Namibia). Under the original plan for Cunene, which was drawn up when Portugal ruled, relatively little of the power was intended for Angola. South African officials now say that project plans could easily be modified to benefit southern Angola.

At the height of its triumphal victory march last week, the M.P.L.A. also scored a notable diplomatic coup when the Organization of African Unity recognized Neto's regime as Angola's sole legitimate government. Uganda President Idi Amin, who is chairman of the O.A.U., praised the move shortly after his own country became the 26th member of the organization to recognize the M.P.L.A. Last month an O.A.U. summit meeting in Addis Ababa was deadlocked 22 to 22 on the question of recognizing the M.P.L.A. It now seems probable that Portugal, which transferred power jointly to the three liberation movements under the Alvor agreement last year, will also recognize Neto's government. At week's end there were predictions that Britain and France were also considering recognition.

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