Three Candidates Look Strong--Now

If the election was held today, Gerald Ford would handily defeat any of the major Democratic contenders.

In the contest for his party's nomination, Ford is preferred over Ronald Reagan by a 2-to-1 margin among Republican and independent voters.

On the Democratic side, Hubert Humphrey runs first for the nomination among Democratic and independent voters, but Jimmy Carter has pulled almost even with him, and those two are far out in front of George Wallace, Henry Jackson and Morris Udall.

These are the major findings of a poll conducted for TIME last week by Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., the opinion-research firm. The results were obtained in telephone interviews with a national, representative sample of 1,016 registered voters in the two days immediately following the Florida primary.

The voters were asked for their choices in a series of two-man races. Ford would beat Humphrey decisively, 52% to 37%, with 11% undecided. This is a marked improvement for Ford over a TIME poll taken last January, when he led Humphrey, 46% to 40%, with 14% undecided.

Surprisingly, last week's TIME survey finds that Ford would have a tougher time against Carter than against Humphrey. The President would beat the Georgian, 46% to 38%, with 16% undecided.

Ford would decisively beat Jackson now, 53% to 30%, with 17% undecided. And the President would wallop Udall, 60% to 21%, with 19% undecided.

Ford's turnaround with the voters has been spectacular. In a TIME-Yankelovich survey last fall, only 46% of the public found him acceptable as the next President. Today he is acceptable to 63% of the public. In the struggle for the nomination, Ford now runs ahead of Reagan among Republicans and independents by a whopping 56% to 28%, with 12% undecided and 4% preferring neither. In January, Ford led Reagan by 43% to 30%, with 22% undecided. As evidence of the eroding Reagan candidacy, in TIME'S survey before the New Hampshire primary, only 35% of the registered voters found Reagan unacceptable. The poll now finds that 47% see him as unacceptable, an ominous turn for the Californian.

A striking finding in the survey is the gulf that Democrat Carter has opened between himself and his two most serious declared rivals, Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall. Democrats and independents were asked, "If you had to make a choice among Jackson, Carter, Udall, Wallace and Humphrey as the Democratic candidate for the presidency, whom would you choose?" The result: Humphrey, who has long run high in such polls, draws 32% of the voters and Carter runs second at 28%. Far behind the two leaders are George Wallace at 14%, Henry Jackson at 11%, and Morris Udall, still largely unfamiliar, at 5%. Party professionals, who expect the nomination fight before the convention to narrow down to a contest between Carter and Jackson, do not concede Carter such a resounding lead, but the voters, for the present at least, see the two candidates otherwise.

The TIME survey finds that Carter's recognition among voters has increased from 41% four weeks before the New Hampshire primary to 65% at present. Among those voters who are familiar with Carter, the percentage who feel he has a good chance of becoming the Democratic candidate has increased from 18% to 45%. Of all the Democratic contenders, Carter has the most favorable acceptability ratio: 42% of the voters find him acceptable as the next President while only 23% do not. Humphrey, by comparison, is acceptable to 45% but unacceptable to 47% of the voters. Jackson is acceptable to 29% and unacceptable to 32%. The comparable figures for Udall are 20% and 31%. Wallace runs worst by this measure: acceptable to 29%, unacceptable to 65%.

Humphrey still carries some familiar scars. Of the people who say he is unacceptable as a candidate, 20% consider him too wishy-washy, 28% do not like his views, 7% think he talks too much and another 7% think he is too old. His running sore over Viet Nam seems to be healing; only 2% are critical about his support of the war.

On more current issues, the argument advanced by candidates like Carter and Reagan that the country would be better off with a President who has not yet been identified with the Federal Government and Washington, D.C., is rejected by the voters, 56% to 26%, with 18% not sure. On a major foreign affairs issue, 48% of the people in the sample said that the U.S. has been "too soft" with the Soviets, while 41% thought the U.S. has to do everything it can to improve relations if there is to be any progress in reducing the arms race.

Ford has some trouble with the voters regarding his ability to handle foreign affairs.

Last month 68% expressed confidence in the President on this matter. Now only 57% do.

Though the economy has improved, the survey shows there has been only a slight increase in voters' confidence in Ford's handling of economic issues, from 66% earlier in the year to 69% now.

His greatest asset, on the other hand, and the factor that singularly influences the President's high standing, is the continuing increase in the nation's optimism. The national mood and confidence in the future are still moving upward. The social-resentment indicator, which measures the alienation and anger of the public because values are changing too fast, is moving sharply down. And for the first time in more than two years, one out of two people now feels that things are going well in the country.

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