Harold Wilson's Stunning Last Surprise

His last surprise was his biggest.

Only a few family members and close aides knew that when Prime Minister Harold Wilson climbed into the front of his official black Rover shortly after ten one gray morning early last week, he was on his way to Buckingham Palace to inform the Queen of his intention to resign from office. An hour later, when he broke the news to his Cabinet of his "irrevocable" decision to step down this month, the ministers sat in stunned silence; tears rolled down a few cheeks. So great was the disbelief by the BBC that it delayed telecasting the flash bulletin from 10 Downing Street for 32 minutes until it had been double-checked.

It was true. After three decades in the front ranks of the Labor Party and a total of almost eight years as P.M., Wilson was resigning as the Crown's first minister and moving to Labor's back benches in the House of Commons. He would delay only so long as it took the 317 Labor M.P.s in the Commons to select a successor.

Personal Decision. The resignation, Wilson told his Cabinet colleagues, had been planned for some time. Immediately after he returned to office for the third time in March 1974, he had made a personal decision to serve only two years. Last December, he explained, he informed the Queen that he would step aside on March 9, two days before his 60th birthday; plans for an orderly transition of power were then drafted and in fact locked in a safe. The resignation was ultimately delayed one week to avoid affecting Labor's chances in two parliamentary by-elections (the Tories won anyway).

Why was he quitting? He insisted that he had simply been around long enough, noting that he had already answered 12,000 parliamentary questions and presided over precisely 472 Cabinet meetings. Although he recognized that his age was itself no bar to continuing in office (Churchill retired at 80, Gladstone at 82), he concluded that because he came to power early in life--he was the youngest P.M. in this century when he first moved into 10 Downing at 48 in 1964--60 was the "right age" for a change. He now felt, moreover, that the country was beginning to come to terms with inflation and the balance of payments deficit--a debatable assertion. Finally, to stay on any longer, he emphasized, would deny others the chance to serve as Prime Minister.

Most Britons tend to accept Wilson's explanation at face value. As the Liberal Party's elder statesman, Jo Grimond, put it: "He came to the end of what he could do." Indeed, attempts to find hidden motives for the resignation do not hold up. His health apparently was not a factor. He looked ruddy and vigorous last week, belying rumors that he has been plagued with various maladies. Nor is there any evidence that he felt he was losing his grip on the party, even though he was embarrassed and angered by the rebellion earlier this month of the so-called Tribune Group, composed of 37 far left Laborites. They balked at a new Wilson stratagem to tamp down inflation through deep cuts in social service spending and forced Wilson to call for a vote of confidence. He won it handily.

Even if Wilson was being candid in his explanation, however, it did seem strange for him to resign just when currencies were in turmoil (with the pound dipping below $2 for the first time ever) and the British economy was afflicted with rampant inflation (23.4%) and rising (now 5.6%) unemployment. It would have seemed that Wilson would have wanted to stay at least until April 6 for the presentation of a new budget that will reflect his new austerity policy. But Wilson may have wanted to step down early so as to give his successor maximum time to build a track record in Parliament before the next mandatory elections in 1979. Some also thought that Wilson might have reckoned that his departure at a time of high tension between moderates and leftists in the party could enhance the chances of his being followed as prime minister by Foreign Minister James Callaghan, a skillful, avuncular politician who enjoys wide popularity.

Under Labor Party procedures, candidates for Wilson's post must announce by the beginning of this week. The first candidate who receives a majority of votes (159) from the Labor M.P.s wins. If no winner emerges on the first ballot, later this week, weaker candidates will be eliminated and the voting will go into a second and possibly third round.

Bookies' Favorite. At week's end there were six Cabinet members in the race. The early favorite--with London bookmakers as well as political analysts --is Callaghan, who, like Wilson, could best hold Labor's warring factions together. Yet he will probably have to face a runoff, perhaps against another moderate--Home Secretary Roy Jenkins, who is the hero of many Laborites disillusioned with old-style politics. Less likely is Employment Secretary Michael Foot, a stalwart of Labor's left wing. The chances of Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey, another moderate, were damaged by his verbal abuse of the leftists during a recent parliamentary debate. Two others not given much chance to survive: Environment Secretary Anthony Crosland, who is not well known among British voters, and Energy Secretary Anthony Wedgwood Benn, the extreme left apostate peer who has long been a burr to Labor moderates, notably including Wilson. Indeed, Wilson probably would not have stepped down had he thought a leftist like Benn or even Foot might succeed him and wreck the new counterinflationary economic strategy.

Since the Tories will find it hard to win the support of all Liberals, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and M.P.s from Ulster, the overall majority of one now enjoyed by Labor theoretically enables Wilson's successor to hang on until late 1979, when the present Parliament reaches its statutory limit. But lacking a popular mandate, he will probably decide to seek an election, possibly in 1978. While this will not give him very much time to demonstrate an ability to tackle Britain's deep social and economic problems, if he needs help, Wilson will not be far away. "You will be able to count on my full support, especially when the going is rough," Wilson last week assured his yet unchosen successor. Then, to allay fears that he may become an annoying meddler, he added quickly: "But I do not intend to offer gratuitous advice."

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