On to the Super Bowl

For the old Michigan center and the Hollywood halfback, as well as for all those candidates who have never tackled anyone tougher than an elusive voter, June 8 will be Super Bowl day. At stake in California, New Jersey and Ohio on the final day of the long season of primaries is a total of 540 Democratic and 331 Republican delegates--and that may just be the ball game. Those potentially climactic contests are examined here by TIME West Coast Bureau Chief Jess Cook, New York Bureau Chief Laurence I. Barrett and Midwest Bureau Chief Benjamin W. Cate.

California

Democrats: Until this week, when the campaign came to neighboring Oregon and Nevada, the primaries seemed far away and out of mind for most Californians. Suddenly, television screens are endlessly spewing political spots. They bounce off voters less interested in issues than itching for vigorous leadership. Governor Jerry Brown's popularity is enormous, his record respected, his organization overflowing with volunteers and endorsements. Triumph in Maryland immunized him against favorite sonstroke, certified his national bona fides and effectively ended the risk of being flattened by a Carter steamroller on his own turf. Says Brown: "This is an opportunity for Californians to renegotiate my contract."

His problem is one of margin. A large majority of the vote would be required to capture the bulk of the 280 delegates under the state party's proportional and balkanized selection rules. Lingering feelings that the freshman Governor needs more experience and that he has neglected the Sacramento store could prove to be minor difficulties. Frank Church, and even Scoop Jackson, may siphon off a few delegates.

The main opposition comes from Jimmy Carter, who is carefully organized and hopes to outspend Brown $500,000 to $200,000. Even if Brown beats him 2 to 1 in the popular vote, Carter could carry as many as 90 delegates and put his total beyond competitive reach. But Carter has dire disabilities. He is not well known; his appeal to blacks, so vital elsewhere, is muffled by Brown's near monopoly of the black political establishment.

Republicans: In the winner-take-all race for 167 delegates, Reagan has many advantages: he is on familiar ground, parading leadership qualities that have produced five wins without a defeat in California primary and general elections. In a state where campaigns are largely electronic, he is by far the superior TV performer. He has the endorsement of the largest G.O.P. volunteer organization, the fealty of most of the Federated Republican Women, who supply precinct shoe leather. Beginning this Wednesday, he can devote complete attention to California, stumping by day and still sleeping in his Pacific Palisades bed at night. Ford's own lieutenants admit that his support is lukewarm and concentrated among moderates with erratic voting habits. Reagan's hard conservative core will vote, come sun or smog.

For all that, Ford could eke out a narrow victory. Chief asset: indications, persuasive even to some Reagan admirers, that the horse in the stable is the best horse against the Democrats. Chief hope: a large turnout. Chief weakness: widespread perception that he supplies wobbly, uninspiring leadership. "I hope he spends a lot of time here," snipes Reagan California Campaign Manager Lyn Nofziger. "The more he's exposed, the better it is for us." But Ford supporters, who include most of the G.O.P. notables, want him back for at least another three days following last weekend's 2 1/2-day swing.

New Jersey

Democrats: In this state of gray industrial cities and green bedroom suburbs, Jimmy Carter so far has built a comfortable lead. Though he has been an absentee contender, his surrogates include Governor Brendan T. Byrne, some of the liberal reformers who were McCarthyites in '68 and McGovernites in '72, and independent centrist Democrats. Their main bond is the mutual conviction that Carter can carry the state in June and defeat the Republican nominee next November. They have put together a strong organization and aim to bring out a larger-than-usual primary-day vote.

Carter's people are wise to run hard. Though he seems unbeatable in the popularity contest--Morris Udall is not even entered in that phase of the primary, and the Scoop Jackson and George Wallace campaigns are moribund--there will be a lively scrap in the separate competition for 108 delegates. Udall plans to divide most of his remaining time and money between New Jersey and Ohio. He will probably win some delegates in affluent suburbia.

Carter's stiffest competition for delegates will come from a nominally uncommitted slate led by two highly popular politicians, Senator Harrison Williams and Jersey City Mayor Paul Jordan. Like most of their running mates, they are Humphrey fans. The former Vice President retains a large following in the state, particularly among blue-collar workers and blacks. The Williams-Jordan slate is getting strong organizational help from the party's state chairman, James Dugan, who is feuding with Governor Byrne.

Republicans: The New Jersey G.O.P. had its exercise in fratricide three years ago in a gubernatorial primary battle, and recently has been on a unity kick. Seeking to avoid a serious fight over delegates, party leaders put together an uncommitted slate headed by Senator Clifford Case. Though the slate contains a few supporters of Ronald Reagan, a large majority favors Gerald Ford. The President has the separate popularity contest to himself because Reagan declined to enter. The Case group faces competition, however, from a partial slate running under the logo "former Governor of California."

Ohio

Democrats: Carter continues to have a comfortable lead over Mo Udall and three other major candidates on the ballot (Church, Jackson and Wallace). But, of course, almost anything can happen this year. Says Democratic State Party Chairman Paul Tipps: "It's been confusing, and it will continue to be confusing. We're in a brand-new ball game where historical precedents don't apply any more."

One confusing factor is that Carter is again being haunted by the specter of Humphrey. The Minnesota Senator showed up at a fund-raising dinner last week for, not surprisingly, Congressman Wayne L. Hays, who strongly backs him. A giant banner proclaimed: H.H. HUMPHREY OUR NEXT PRESIDENT. Hays, a conservative, announced that he will spend $25,000 in funds raised in a last-minute drive. He will campaign for Humphrey in six districts where the Congressman heads favorite-son slates of delegates. If elected, they would support Humphrey at the convention.

Hays' drive could also cut into Carter's moderate and conservative support, which would benefit Udall. To further cloud the primary, there are four other favorite-son slates running in selected congressional districts and a statewide uncommitted slate headed by Favorite Daughter Gertrude Donahey, the state treasurer. The popular Donahey is a stand-in for Senator John Glenn, who backed away from running as a favorite son when he was named the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention.

Republicans: Says Reagan's Ohio campaign director, Peter E. Voss: "It's guerrilla warfare down here. I can't build bridges or highways. We're fighting the king." The king, of course, is Ford, who already has 24 of the state's 97 G.O.P. delegates, since there are no Reagan delegate slates in one-third of Ohio's congressional districts. Ford also enjoys the backing of Governor James A. Rhodes and other G.O.P. bigwigs. They have an elaborate campaign operation and ten telephone banks across the state.

Even so, Voss feels that Reagan has a chance in Ohio if he campaigns there. So far Reagan has not decided whether it is worth the money and effort. Taking no chances, Ford's Midwest campaign director, Jon Holt, says: "We're going to run just as hard and scared here as we did in Michigan."

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