Coming Out Swinging

It was a helluva convention. It will be a helluva campaign. Moreover, it will matter, for it will give the nation a clear-cut choice between opposing economic and social policies that will influence America's course for decades. The Republican Party came away with one more, possibly last chance to sell its programs to the country and avoid a later, fatal schism or the danger of fading into insignificance.

Certainly it was the most dramatic convention since the Republicans in 1952 chose Dwight Eisenhower over Robert Taft; indeed it was one of the most fascinating conventions of this century. As the G.O.P. assembled in Kansas City, a sitting President, albeit appointed as a result of Watergate, was facing revolt from the faithful in his own party. The battle was ideologically murky, for Gerald Ford and Challenger Ronald Reagan are both basically conservatives. In the damp Midwestern summer heat, Ford pleaded for support with a steady stream of delegates. He finally won this brawl on the precipice by a painfully close 1,187 to 1,070 votes. But even after that outcome was clear, nobody was certain how the conservative fundamentalists would take their hero's defeat and how enthusiastically they would back the President in the election.

Then, on the final night, the President in his acceptance speech performed at his strongest, appeasing much of the party's inner anger and directing its passions toward the fight against the Democrats. It was the best speech Jerry Ford ever made. He seemed transformed--vigorous, authoritative. He brought even the diehard Reaganites in the Texas delegation to their feet. For the first time, the hall previously turbulent with divisive cheerleading resounded in a unison of "We want Ford!"

The speech changed the atmosphere; but it would take much more than one platform triumph to turn the party around. The Republicans are still racked by divisions and face a tough, intelligent opponent, Jimmy Carter, who has come out of rural Georgia to lead a revitalized Democratic Party. While the Democrats were flaunting their new faces, the Republicans at the convention almost symbolically paraded such figures of yesteryear as Alf Landon, 88, and Barry Goldwater, 67, the badly defeated presidential candidates of 1936 and 1964. (Another face from the past, Movie Star Gary Grant, 72, made a relentlessly cute appearance to introduce Betty Ford.)

The fractious Republican Party faces a twofold dilemma: How can it reach out to the independents and Democrats it needs and still keep its own restive conservatives, who control so much of the party's machinery? Given the political realities, odds are heavily against the Republicans in November. But Ford does have a fighting chance, and the Democratic strategists know that Carter is no shoo-in.

The President managed to communicate this sense of optimism, however limited, and offer a foretaste of his campaign theme: a mixture of give 'em hell and emphasizing the record of his Administration. He began forcefully and with a surprise, injecting a note that had not been in the text: "This year the issues are on our side, and I'm ready and eager to go before the American people and debate the issues face to face with Jimmy Carter." That unusual challenge from an incumbent to an opponent brought the audience to their feet for one of 65 ovations.

Throwing aside any remaining reticence about proclaiming his own accomplishments, Ford declared: "From August of 1974 to August of 1976, the record shows steady upward progress toward prosperity, peace and public trust. It is a record I am proud to run on." Where an underdog Harry Truman ran in 1948 against a "do-nothing Congress," Ford will take on "the vote-hungry, free-spending congressional majority [of Democrats]." The speech was essentially, though mutedly, conservative, an evocation of Eisenhower themes. "I see Americans who love their country for what it has been and what it must become. I see Americans who in their own quiet way pray for peace. My fellow Americans, I like what I see."

For all of his criticism of Democratic overpromising, Ford made some pledges of his own. He called for programs to reduce crime, improve health care for the elderly and provide for the needs of the poor. At the same time, he promised less Government, a fairer tax structure and a balanced budget. It was a pretty tall order--a combination of social compassion and fiscal conservatism.

After that, the Republicans emerged from Kansas City with at least a public display of unity. Ford's treatment of the defeated Reagan had much to do with the reconciliation. About an hour after he was nominated, Ford at 1:30 a.m. visited Reagan's suite, where the challenger promised to campaign for the President in the fall. Then, after his acceptance speech, Ford brought his opponent down to the podium to have the last word--a wise peacemaking gesture.

Ford's selection of Kansas Senator Robert Dole as his running mate also appeased the conservatives, but at the risk of exasperating many others in and out of the G.O.P. Some suspected that the Reaganites had all but forced the President to choose Dole--or someone else from the right. Actually, Ford had his own reasons for picking the Kansan.

Pennsylvania's Senator Hugh Scott said that Ford had told him Dole would have strong appeal to the farm-belt of the Midwest and Plains states. His background as Republican National Committee Chairman from 1971 to 1973, added Ford, has given Dole an extraordinarily wide acquaintance with Republicans in all states. And he has been an able Congressman and Senator. U.N. Ambassador William Scranton added another reason: "He is an excellent campaigner of the type we need. The President is not the attacker type, but Bob can do that kind of campaigning." He also can be abrasive and slashing to opponents, though his sense of humor alleviates some of the sting. Cracks Minnesota Republican Chairman Chuck Slocum: "We've got righteous Jimmy, dull Walter and stuffy Jerry. Bob Dole will add some zip to the campaign and prevent it from being dull."

Many moderate and big-city Republicans were deeply distressed, thinking Dole is too conservative. Moreover, Dole is a crony of Ford's, a fellow Midwesterner with an almost identical ideology. By picking him, Ford appeared to be looking inward instead of reaching out as the G.O.P. must do. Illinois Republican Senator Charles Percy believed that the selection of Dole compounds Ford's problem of winning in November. Said he: "If you are trying to reach voters in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New England, where a lot of the people are, the question is: What can he contribute? How do you reach independents and Democrats with a former chairman of the Republican Party?'1

The choice of Dole also signaled to many that the Republicans have written off most of the South to Jimmy Carter. If Ford meant to contest Carter on his home turf, he might more plausibly have picked Tennessee's Howard Baker or Texas' John Connally. Jimmy Carter expressed approval: "Senator Dole is an excellent choice. It would be very difficult for the Republicans to challenge me successfully in the South, and it may be that President Ford just decided not to try."

Can Carter-Mondale beat Ford-Dole? The familiar arithmetic, according to the Gallup poll, is that only 22% of U.S. adults list themselves as Republicans, v. 46% as Democrats and 32% as independents. Last week Ford's minions trumpeted a new Gallup poll showing that Carter's lead over the President had narrowed by a remarkable ten points since late July. But Carter remains ahead by an impressive margin --56% to 33%.

Among his other problems, the President is burdened by Watergate; memories of Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon will surface often in the next ten weeks. In his keynote address, Baker tried to bury the issue by contending that the Republicans had faced up to it "with honor and dignity." And he carried the battle to the Democrats: "Since then, America has learned a lot about other political abuses in prior Democratic Administrations, and even in the present Democratic Congress--abuses of personal liberties, invasions of privacy and political mischief of the most shocking type. But there is one big difference. We faced ours, and in so doing, we raised the country's expectations for honorable government. But we are still waiting for the Democrats to face theirs."

Following tradition, the campaign will formally start on Labor Day. Confident of carrying the South, Carter will spend most of his time in the West, industrial Midwest and Northeast--particularly California, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Ohio. To shore up his campaign in the urban Northeast, Carter has set up at his Atlanta headquarters an "ethnic desk" staffed by Terry Sunday, formerly a staffer at the National Conference of Catholic Bishops, and Victoria Mongiardo, a nun who used to work for the National Center for Urban Ethnic Affairs.

Ford's advisers, meeting with him this week during a working vacation in Vail, Colo., also seem to have settled upon an overall "big state" strategy. Under this plan, Ford would concede the cotton South (Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina), and make a pass at the peripheral South (Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Louisiana). He would concentrate on the Midwest, notably six states that would give him a total of 104 electoral votes (needed to win: 270). They are: Michigan (21), Ohio (25), Illinois (26), Indiana (13), Wisconsin (11) and Iowa (8). If he can put those together with California (45), Texas (26) and one or two of the large industrial states of the Northeast, then he might win. That would be something of a political miracle. The President could win Ohio, which has a strong Republican organization. Illinois may be the key state for both Carter and Ford. As Chicago Mayor Richard Daley likes to point out, no presidential candidate since Warren Harding in 1920 has been elected without carrying Illinois. There, as in Iowa and Wisconsin, Ford should be going against the odds. But he might do well in farm states like Kansas and Nebraska.

The West is Carter's weakest region and thus may be a promising target of opportunity for Ford, even though he starts out far behind Carter in states like Texas and California. (The latest Field poll in California shows Carter ahead of Ford, 53% to 33%). In the Northeastern states, Ford prospects are obviously dim to dismal. He might carry Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont. Besides, as Massachusetts Congresswoman Margaret Heckler observes, "Neither party has chosen a ticket that has particular appeal [in the area]." Though states like Pennsylvania and New Jersey have overwhelming Democratic strength, Carter will have some trouble getting hold of the urban ethnic vote because of his Southern Baptist evangelicalism, middle-of-the-road stand on abortion, and appeal for blacks. But it is hard to see now how such Carter weaknesses can be translated into Ford majorities in these states.

Still, as Proudhon once said, "The fecundity of the unexpected far exceeds the statesman's prudence." Jimmy Carter is himself part of a trend of political surprise in the U.S. One specter that haunts Carter's campaign strategists is that he could sweep the South by large margins, win a majority of the popular vote nationwide, and lose the election in the Electoral College because of some narrow victories by Ford in some Northern industrial states. Says Carter's campaign manager, Hamilton Jordan: "It's not a farfetched possibility at all."

In Ford's favor now is a variety of factors in the American psychology. On the whole, Americans have a greater sense of well-being than they have had in years. Despite the memories of Watergate and Viet Nam, at least a semblance of trust has returned. Ford can claim credit for restoring openness and candor to the White House. So the campaign may well focus upon the question of whom the voters trust more, Ford or Carter.

The outcome may depend almost entirely on how Carter campaigns and is understood in the next 2 1/2 months. Carter is an unknown quantity, while Jerry Ford is not. Ford's best hope may be the air of stability and predictability that he projects, his sane and reliable image.

Carter succeeded in his astonishing run through the Democratic primaries by defeating a crowded field. Now he is one-on-one with Ford, and the techniques that succeeded for Carter before --the atmospherics of "decency," "love" and "trust" and "I'll never tell a lie" --will undoubtedly have to change. His essential message in the primaries was very nearly spiritual, having much to do with American morale. In TV debate with Ford, he would have to be more specific.

Many voters in the primaries understood Carter to be fairly conservative; yet at the New York convention, he chose a deeply liberal running mate, Mondale, and virtually dictated many parts of a party platform considerably to the left of the Carter image.

Voters on Nov. 2 can make a very clear ideological choice--at least on the basis of the two parties' platforms. Examples:

THE ECONOMY: The Republicans want a commitment to end deficit spending as a means of reducing unemployment. They reject wage-price controls and "make-work" public employment programs, favoring instead tax incentives for investment and relying on the private sector for new jobs. The Democrats want a strong domestic council to moderate wage and price increases by jawboning, and would link the minimum wage to the cost of living. Their platform also pledges the Government to take on necessary tax and spending measures to reduce adult unemployment to 3% within four years--the intent of the Humphrey-Hawkins bill. It would be inflationary and a nightmare to enforce, but less so than before it was recently revised. Carter supports the bill, but has serious doubts about it; in particular, he is cool to the idea of public employment.

ABORTION: Republicans endorse "a constitutional amendment to restore protection of the right to life for unborn children." The Democrats oppose any such amendment.

SOCIAL SERVICES: The G.O.P. opposes a compulsory national health insurance program, but supports extending private insurance to cover all Americans for catastrophic illness. The party also opposes a guaranteed annual income. The Democrats favor a federally financed, comprehensive national health insurance program, and a plan for minimum-income guarantees for the poor and aged.

DEFENSE: Republicans want development of new missile-launching submarine forces and the B-l bomber, and would increase the size of the armed services. The Democrats propose a reduction of from $5 billion to $7 billion in defense spending and would postpone any decision on production of the B-l bomber until February 1977.

The Republican platform is, to a large extent, a Reagan manifesto to which the Ford forces acquiesced in the interests of party harmony. Still, about the only part of the platform that Ford will have trouble living with is the foreign policy plank's implied rebuke of detente with the Soviet Union. One large question for the Ford campaign now is to what extent the Reagan forces are satisfied and will actively work for the ticket. William Rusher, publisher of the National Review and an ideological force behind the idea of a third-party breakaway, admitted last week at the Kansas City convention: "I don't think we're going to find many bolters in this hall."

This week in Chicago, the tiny right-wing American Independent Party will hold its own convention to nominate its choices for President and Vice President. The candidates include former Georgia Governor Lester Maddox and Conservative Digest Publisher Richard Viguerie. "It is now time for conservatives to file for divorce," says Viguerie. "Who needs the kind of victory where both parties support socialism--the Democrats by design and the Republicans by default?" The A.I.P. effort will not amount to very much. But it symbolizes the disgust of some Republicans with even the Ford-Dole ticket, which is almost as far to the right as two-party tolerances will bear these days.

Ford may benefit from another splinter movement--the independent candidacy of Eugene McCarthy, whose name on the ballots of 16 states so far (he aims for at least 45 by Election Day) may drain off enough votes from Jimmy Carter to make a decisive difference. Some of Ford's campaign advisers have discussed the possibility of inducing wealthy Republicans to give money to McCarthy's campaign and thus encourage McCarthy's spoiler role. Since Ford intends to finance his campaign with $25 million in federal election funds and can raise no more under the law, some Republican contributors may spend their money elsewhere, indirectly to assist the Ford-Dole ticket.

Now Ford and his advisers plan to move quickly to shake and upgrade the often lax leadership of the President's campaign and to get some of Reagan's sharpest aides on board. For many weeks, Ford's headhunters have been discreetly inquiring about the abilities of various Reagan workers, and there have been quiet contacts between the two staffs.

At local levels in many states, where wounds from the primaries are still hurting, the switch of loyalties will be difficult--but necessary for Republican success. Reagan's Washington state chairman, Warren McPherson, warns that "west of the Rockies, Ford is going to lose every state if he doesn't set up new structures that incorporate the Reagan organizations in their entirety and on the basis of parity."

In the weeks ahead, Ford will try to persuade tens of millions of people that he is a safer choice than Carter. Hammering again and again at last week's themes of peace, prosperity and personal trust, he will take credit for the restoration of integrity at one end of Pennsylvania Avenue and condemn the follies at the other end. But to prevail in November, the man who heads the minority party will have to win the votes of farmers who are angered by his Administration's grain embargoes, of blue-collar workers who are sore about unemployment and of a lot of big-city dwellers who feel that Ford has not done well enough by them. If Ford can do that, then the most engrossing convention since 1952 may be followed by the biggest political upset since one of Ford's fighting heroes, Harry Truman, turned the trick in 1948.

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