So Far, a Personality Test

TIME CITIZENS' PANEL

To track how the voters make up their minds this election year, TIME has commissioned the public opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc. to interview periodically members of a TIME Citizens' Panel. A similar panel was used to measure the mood of voting-age Americans in the months before the 1972 presidential election. The 1976 panel consists of 300 registered voters chosen at random out of a carefully selected sample of 1,500 people who are a cross section of the national electorate. The first report follows:

More than anything else--the economy, national defense and Big Government--voters this year are concerned with the two candidates' personalities. Only three out of ten panelists believe that Americans will vote primarily on the basis of the campaign issues. The majority see the election as being a choice between two men and their abilities to handle the Oval Office job. But one out of two panelists has not yet irrevocably decided how to vote and could be swayed in either direction. This group includes nominal supporters of both Carter and Ford, though Carter's backing tends to be particularly thin.

The Debates. Regardless of whom they support, eight out of ten panelists were eagerly looking forward to this week's verbal duel as a way to get to know the candidates better. Said Marie Silence, a Republican from Jacksonville: "I want to see who is quickest answering [questions] and who will be caught off guard." Predicted Harvey Hartter, a pro-Ford laborer in Fairview, Kans.: "I'll find out a lot of things about them when they are on the spot. You can find out what they really stand for."

By 4 to 3, the panelists expect Carter to do better than Ford in the debates. Explained Mrs. Howard Cable, a moderate Democrat in Hyattsville, Md.: "I think that Carter has a stronger personality." Said Eleanor Squeglia, a conservative Democrat in Medford, Mass.: "He can express his feelings better than Ford. Ford can't make speeches without a written [text] in front of him. You can't have a debate off a piece of paper." Nevertheless, many of the panelists believe Ford will benefit in the debates from his 28 years in Washington. Said Clyde Bullington, a blue-collar liberal from Madison Heights, Mich.: "Ford has the experience. Ford's been in politics longer. He knows the ropes." But many panelists believe this will be offset by Carter's legwork during the campaign. Said Alvin Harris, the black manager of a housing project in Danbury, Conn.: "Carter is more knowledgeable of the needs of the American people. Carter has done his homework, visiting different areas of the country."

Doubts about Carter. The debates are particularly important to Carter. One out of three Ford backers on the panel said he might be willing to switch to Carter, but only if Carter can demonstrate in the debates that he is clearly the better man for the job. Carter also still has to prove himself to many of his own supporters, even to some of those who cannot imagine themselves actually voting for Ford.

One out of five Carter backers is not yet certain who the Democratic candidate is and where he stands. In addition, two out of three panelists fault Carter for being fuzzy on the issues. Paul Pizzini, a white-collar worker from Baltimore, likes Carter's fresh face, self-confidence and "Southern-fried charisma" but complained that "he changes his mind." Said Faith Foss, a college professor from Northampton, Mass.: "I think he goes with the wind." Some voters suspect that Carter is deliberately obfuscating. Said Leila Rohde, the wife of a postman in Sun Valley, Ariz.: "He speaks half-truths. He talks like a lawyer, undermining what he said so that you don't know what to believe after a time." Still others would agree with the skeptical view of Douglas Ross, a moderate Republican from Jacksonville, N.C., that "all candidates are fuzzy on the issues." Added Rosemary Werner, an elderly conservative Republican from Lancaster, Calif: "It's very risky to vote for anyone, really."

One out of five panelists fears that Carter would turn out to be a big spender. Said Judith DeWilde, a moderate Republican from Doylestown, Pa.: "He's promising all things to all people. Somebody has to say who is going to pay for the guaranteed wage program and the national health bill." A third of the panel shared the feeling that Carter is too much of an unknown, and that makes it risky to vote for him. Said Marie Silence: "I'm afraid of Carter and the radical changes he might make. Nobody really knows what he will do." Carter's strong religious beliefs also come in for criticism, though mostly from Ford supporters on the panel; 20% of them raised it as an issue. But Claire Briones, a liberal Democrat from Staten Island, N.Y., argued that even if Carter "might get carried away because of his religious beliefs, his common sense will take over and guard him."

At the same time, Carter has demonstrated many strengths to the panelists. Among them is the fact that he is a new face and his election would mean a change in Government. Said Gerald Levy, a college professor from Norfolk, Va.: "He's the sort of person who could run the Congress. He's not a party to the mess in Washington, scandals, Watergate." Added Opal Lafayette, a blue-collar Democrat from Flint, Mich.: "Carter knows what it is like to work, and we need somebody to understand the little guy."

Doubts About Ford. Many of Ford's supporters on the panel have doubts about him. One out of five of them questions whether he has leadership ability, and one out of ten questions whether he is smart enough for the job. Said Francis Lindgren, a white-collar worker from Wayland, Mich.: "I don't look at Ford as being a truly great leader. When he gives a speech, it sounds like it came out of a can." Added Bill Mills, a plant manager from Denison, Texas: "I don't think he is as smart as other Presidents we've had. I think that he might be talked into something and he won't realize what he is doing."

One out of ten panelists backing Ford has doubts about him because of his pardon of Richard Nixon. Voicing many of these suspicions, Marie Flaherty, the wife of an insurance salesman in St. Petersburg, Fla., said: "I think it was planned between Ford and Nixon." The pardon also rankles with two out of three panelists supporting Carter. Said Dorothy Duncan, a conservative Democrat from Salem, Va.: "Nixon should have been treated like any other man and gotten the punishment that any other man would have gotten." In addition, six out of ten Carter supporters shared the complaint of Isabelle Sullivan, a blue-collar Democrat from Geneva, N.Y., that "Ford does use his veto power so much--and not for the good of the country." But only one out of six Ford supporters has similar misgivings about the vetoes.

According to the panelists, Ford's chief strengths are experience, honesty, sincerity and reliability. Said Harvey Hartter: "I think he's done a good job with what he had to work with." Added Lorraine Tally, a young conservative Republican from Oklahoma City: "He's been in Government for a number of years. He's very strong--able to make decisions."

The Issues. Although the campaign thus far appears to center mostly on the candidates' personalities and their abilities to handle the presidency, issues do matter to about a third of the panelists. Further, when all of the panelists were asked to describe the issues of greatest concern to them, half mentioned the nation's economy. Said Agnes Jueschke, a moderate Democrat from Edgewater, Colo.: "I would like to see more employment. I would like to see all the prices stabilized."

But the panelists showed little interest in the other issues. Only one out of six, most of them Republicans, mentioned foreign affairs and national defense as an important issue. One out of ten brought up Government spending and a balanced budget. Terrell Swimer, a restaurant owner in St. Augustine, Fla., thought that a Republican President could "cut out some of that spending --we'll never get out of debt." Fewer than one out of ten panelists said their votes would depend on issues such as the candidates' positions on abortion, amnesty for draft dodgers and welfare reform.

The Mood. One reason why voters were paying more attention to personalities than issues may be their somewhat ambivalent mood about conditions in the country. While almost two out of three panelists feel that things are going fairly well these days, they are almost evenly divided on whether the worst is behind the nation. Most Ford supporters think that this is the case; most Carter supporters are worried about what lies ahead. Said Mrs. De-Wilde: "Industry is beginning to build. Housing developments are going up. This is a good sign that the worst is behind us." On the other hand, Nellie Hohnke, a Carter supporter from Kalamazoo, Mich., maintained that "the war is at least behind us, but I don't think the economy will get any better unless there are some changes." Whether the mood of the electorate swings will have an important bearing on the election. Increased optimism about the future would probably help Ford. But any growth in voters' worries about the future would greatly benefit Carter.

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