Turned Off, Not Tuned Out

Americans have not been so turned off by a presidential election since 1948, when only 51.1% of the people of voting age went to the polls. According to the Yankelovich survey, 61% of the voters say they have little enthusiasm for either Carter or Ford. At the same time, voter registration is stagnating or declining in every region except the South, where people are excited about a presidential candidate from Dixie. Despite drives to sign up new voters, the registration totals, compared with 1972 figures, are expected to drop by well over 1 million people in New York and 600,000 in California. Said a Bostonian who has been trying to enroll voters: "It's shoveling against the tide."

Nonetheless, the Yankelovich study challenges the widely held belief that Americans are apathetic about politics. Three-quarters of the people in the poll were sufficiently interested in the election to watch the first Ford-Carter debate. The same proportion feel that the outcome of the election will make a difference to the country, two-thirds believe the outcome will personally affect them.

Only 22% of those polled said they may not vote on Nov. 2. But this figure is probably an understatement and certainly not a reliable guide to what people will actually do on Election Day. Thus the experts who predict that only about half the electorate will vote may be right. The turnout of voters has steadily declined since 1960 (see chart). The drop was particularly sharp in 1972 because people aged 18 to 21 were eligible for the first time, and they are less inclined to vote than others. This year, says Daniel Yankelovich, "the election bears all the earmarks of 1948, except that we don't yet know which candidate will play Harry Truman's starring role." Studies of the 1948 election found that voters who are vacillating between unexciting choices for President tend either to put off making a final decision until the last minute or not to vote at all. Says Yankelovich: "This is what is happening today." The voters may be turned off at this point, but they have not yet tuned out the election.

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