CARTER TAKES A NARROW LEAD

In the up and down battle for the presidency, Jimmy Carter last weekend moved ahead of Gerald Ford by 48% to 44%, with 8% of the U.S. electorate still undecided. Even before the third presidential debate, voter sentiment had shifted in Carter's favor by 3 percentage points. In late September a surge for Ford turned the race into a dead heat, with 43% of the vote going to each candidate. But the final 90-minute debate firmed up Carter's slim lead over Ford in a week that saw substantial numbers of undecided voters begin to take sides. These conclusions were drawn from two nationwide polls conducted for TIME by the opinion-research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White Inc. The findings:

1) A telephone survey, which was conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 19, of 1,578 registered voters showed Carter leading Ford by 45% to 42%, with 13% of the voters undecided.

2) Interviews held immediately after the debate with 608 voters--a cross section of the original nationwide sample--indicated that Carter's margin had grown slightly to 4 percentage points.

The debate apparently helped many of the undecided voters to make up their minds about the candidates. Two out of three people interviewed in the second survey had watched the debate; they backed Carter by 49% to 45%, with only 6% undecided. When those polled were asked who won the debate, 33% said Carter, 26% said Ford, and 41% called it a draw. Reflecting the closeness of the debate, voters with an opinion of who won were almost equally impressed with the personalities that the candidates displayed during the debate, the stands they took on the issues, and the way in which they handled the questions. Further, while debate watchers thought, by 47% to 38%, that Carter had come out better than Ford on questions about the economy, the President struck them, by 56% to 26%, as stronger on questions dealing with foreign affairs.

THE TRENDS. According to the survey before the debate, voters by 48% to 37% now expect Carter to win the election, a reversal in their perceptions two weeks earlier. At that time, by a margin of 44% to 40%, they predicted a Ford victory.

Carter's gains came chiefly from outside the South. In the eleven states of the old Confederacy, his lead over Ford has held almost steady at 48% to 39%. But the Georgian has moved up 3 points in the rest of the country, where he now edges Ford by 44% to 42%. Carter has also increased his majority of the Democrats' vote by 3 points, to 68% (v. 20% for Ford). His share of the independents' vote has gone up by 2 points, to 33% (v. 45% for Ford). Further, he continues to have a solid 50% (to 36% for the President) grip on the blue-collar vote, and also has made some inroads among professional and managerial voters. But he still trails Ford in that category 43% to 46%.

Carter's lead held up even when the Yankelovich analysts figured in the support for Eugene McCarthy. Though McCarthy could conceivably have a spoiler role in some states, the poll showed that he is actually losing ground in the 29 states in which he is on the ballot. In the nationwide sample, McCarthy wins the backing of 7% of the voters surveyed, the same proportion as in late September. But when the analysts subtracted his strength in states where he is not on the ballot, the presidential race shaped up as follows:

Sept. Oct.

Carter Sept. 41% Oct. 44%

Ford Sept. 42% Oct. 41%

McCarthy Sept. 5% Oct. 3%

Lester Maddox Sept. 1% Oct.1%

Undecided Sept. 11% Oct.11%

Nonetheless, two factors indicate that Carter's lead is still quite volatile. First, among the hard core, who the analysts concluded would be the most likely to vote, the race remains a draw, with 42% for each candidate. Second, the electorate is still dissatisfied with both candidates. One out of five independent voters is undecided about which candidate to support, compared with 13% of the total Oct. 16-19 sample. In addition, almost half the Carter backers have some doubts about whether he is the right man for the job, as compared with two out of five Ford supporters who have similar misgivings about their candidate.

THE CAMPAIGN. One result of the final debate was to mend somewhat the public images of both candidates. Of those polled, 41% said their impressions of Carter have improved, and 26% reported a similar rise in their opinions of the President. But this effect may prove to be fleeting because the pre-debate survey found that many voters' opinions of the candidates had actually grown worse during the course of the campaign. Asked in the Oct. 16-19 poll how their impressions of the candidates have changed, they gave these responses:

Carter Improved 30% Same 35% Worse 31% Ford Improved 20% Same 54% Worse 22%

In particular, voters are displeased with the way in which Ford has handled the issue of providing jobs, dealing with the Soviet Union and reducing the federal bureaucracy. They give him notably high marks only for the way in which he has stated his views. In Carter's case, voters are unhappiest about his stand on the defense issue. But Carter has scored well with his promise to make the Government more efficient and has come through to voters as a fairer campaigner than Ford.

Each candidate's campaigning has done more to hurt his opponent's image than to improve his own standing with the voters. More than half those polled still regard Carter as overpromising and too fuzzy on the issues; slightly fewer people accuse him of changing his stands. About half those surveyed fault Ford for pardoning Richard Nixon and for being too close to business; almost the same proportion of people charge that he cannot deal with Congress. About a quarter of those polled feel Ford is not intelligent enough for the job; almost the same proportion believe his mistake during the second debate in saying that the U.S.S.R. does not dominate Eastern Europe is reason enough to vote against him.

THE ISSUES. The economy continues to be the subject that most concerns voters, but the poll found that neither candidate has been able to take substantial advantage of this. Only 22% of the people surveyed have a lot of confidence in Ford's ability to deal with the economy; only 26% have a high opinion of the way Carter has handled the issue. The poll found that the proportion of people who felt they were in economic distress has remained almost stationary for two months at 30%, while TIME'S State of the Nation indicator, based on a series of answers to questions that measure people's confidence in America, has slipped 4 points, to 40%. Somewhat paradoxically, however, those surveyed tend to be bullish about the economic outlook for the next few months; while 45% believe the economy will stay the same, 31% think it will improve, and only 20% expect conditions to worsen.

Voters are also weighing the different leadership qualities exhibited by Ford and Carter. Those surveyed regard the two men as equally trustworthy, but, by 44% to 21%, they rate Ford as more realistic than Carter about what can be done by Government. On the other hand, the voters believe Carter would do more than Ford to reduce unfairness in American life (41% for Carter, v. 21% for Ford), restore respect for law and cut down crime (33% v. 26%), encourage average citizens to participate more in Government (45% v. 22%), and protect the average person from special-interest groups (45% v. 22%).

THE ELECTION. No poll can predict the results of an election, especially a race as close as this one. The outcome may largely depend on the answer to the tantalizing question of who will bother to vote. Black voters prefer Carter to Ford, by 75% to 16%, but the survey indicated that they are the least likely of any voting bloc to go to the polls. Union members back Carter by 55% to 32%; thus an all-out drive planned by organized labor to get its people to the polls would help Carter more than Ford.

Among other factors that may work in Carter's favor, the Yankelovich analysts found evidence of a strong Democratic tide in the congressional elections, raising the possibility of a reverse coattail effect that will aid Carter. Of those questioned, 52% said they would vote for Democrats in these races, and 28% said they back Republicans. The voters who were undecided about whom to support in the presidential race favor Democratic congressional candidates by 44% to 20%. Moreover, by 42% to 27%, the voters prefer Carter's running mate Walter Mondale over Republican Nominee Robert Dole. But Mondale's help may be of only marginal benefit to the Democratic ticket. The reason: most voters are deciding solely on the merits of the presidential candidates.

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