There's Life in the Old Party Yet

Even while suffering presidential defeat, the Republican Party displayed an extraordinary capacity for comeback. Only last August political obituary writers were busily anticipating the G.O.P.'s demise as an effective part of the nation's elective system. In the wake of Watergate and the divisive struggle between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, surveys showed that a paltry 22% of voting-age citizens were willing to identify themselves as Republicans. Ford's Silky Sullivan stretch run changed the equations even though it resulted not so much from his own strength as from Carter's weakness. But the Republicans' fairly good showing in races for the Senate, House and governorships gave them hope for the future.

Probably not for 1980--unless Jimmy Carter turns out to be a singularly inept President, suffering foreign reversals, mismanaging the domestic economy and defaulting on his many reform promises. But what are the Republicans' longer-range prospects? There is surely a conservative strain in the country, but it is not easily exploited. The older "social" conservatism that was a reaction against radicals and the counterculture is fading. Economic conservatism--limited Gov- ernment spending to avoid inflation, no social programs that would cost middle-income people too much money--remains powerful. But against this must be weighed such general and even global factors as higher energy costs and the slowing of growth in industrial societies, which conservative economists (or liberals for that matter) have not yet been able to cope with.

The groups to which the G.O.P. appeals--the affluent, the well-educated, the suburbanites and white-collar workers--are growing. But to recapture the White House, the Republicans will have to solve several problems. First, they must smooth over divisions between conservative true believers and the moderate wing. Second, they must broaden their appeal to win more votes from nonwhites, city folk and the young.

These are formidable conditions. The right-wing diehards, far from recognizing any need to move toward the middle to win broader support, already argue that Ford's defeat "proves" that they were right in the first place and would have done better with Reagan. Yet, most important of all, the Republicans must find a candidate who can appeal to diverse constituencies, notably the rising independents.

Gerald Ford, after his heartbreaking defeat, will probably retire to private life. re-emerging at rubber-chicken campaign banquets and on Old Timers' Night at future national conventions (see box). But even though he will probably not run again for public office (he will be 67 in 1980), his surprising showing this November will enhance his stature as a party spokesman and senior adviser. Ronald Reagan will play a similar, if perhaps lesser role. He will be 69 in 1980--which may be too old to try again--but he will retain great influence, particularly through his weekly columns in 80 newspapers and his five-minute broadcasts every weekday on 187 radio stations. If Reagan anoints some chosen successor as the conservative champion, he can give that person a tremendous lift.

The choice will probably not be Robert Dole, though he insists, "I don't intend to fade away." The defeated vice-presidential candidate will go back to the Senate, where his term expires in 1980. Having presented a bad-mouth image and fared poorly in the polls during the campaign, he may well receive blame for the party's defeat and stands little chance of being nominated again for the G.O.P. ticket.

For a minority party, the Republicans have a formidable flock of other vote getters, mostly young moderates. Tennessee's Howard Baker Jr., 50, the ranking Republican on the Senate Watergate committee, was passed over by Gerald Ford for the vice-presidential nomination--in what now seems to have been a blunder. Baker, intensely ambitious and able, may well become an active candidate for the top job. Still another possibility, though he begins from a small base, is Iowa's enormously popular Governor Robert D. Ray, a tireless campaigner who often ends a day of politicking with a family snack at an ice-cream parlor. He will be only 49 when his fourth term--an Iowa record--ends in January 1979.

Missouri's attorney general John C. Danforth, 40, easily won the U.S. Senate seat long held by Democrat Stuart Symington; by the size of his victory, Danforth almost automatically becomes a G.O.P. force to be reckoned with. So does Illinois' new Governor James R. ("Big Jim") Thompson, 40, the tough prosecutor who swamped the hand-picked nominee of the Daley machine.

Some moderate veterans inevitably will be talked about: Illinois' Senator Charles Percy, 57, who has never quite caught on in the Presidential sweepstakes; Commerce Secretary Elliot Richardson, 56, who has a fussy image; and William Ruckelshaus, 44, who, along with Richardson, resigned from the Justice Department during Richard Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre, and who now lacks a political base.

The Republicans may also cast an eye toward Texas, where former Governor John Connally, 59, the backslid Democrat, has his eyes on 1980. A spellbinding speaker who looks as well as talks like a President (at least a Texas-style President), he stumped the Lone-Star State with Ford and traveled nationwide on behalf of his new party's congressional candidates. Big John has many assets, including an idea (usually conservative) to match almost every problem and plenty of free time and money. But Ford's loss of Texas, on top of Connally's old wheeler-dealer reputation, has hurt him badly.

At some lower elective levels, Republicans have lesser prospects. There is no chance that they can overcome the huge Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in 1978. In the Senate, elementary arithmetic will work against the G.O.P.: two years from now, more Republican seats (17) than Democratic (16) will be at hazard. But Republicans will have a chance that year to make dramatic gains in Governors' chairs. Only seven G.O.P. incumbents will be up for reelection, but fully 22 incumbent Democratic Governors must place their performance records on the line by '78. Possible G.O.P. gains include Maryland, where Marvin Mandel is still trying to stay out of jail on corruption charges and Colorado, where Richard Lamm has seen his support steadily erode.

In one sense, the Republican loss of the White House may be turned to an advantage. At least until 1980, the G.O.P. will be able to concentrate its fire on Democrats in control at all levels of government. Explains Political Analyst Richard Scammon: "With uni-government, monopoly control by one party, people can blame everything, anything--from inflation to the fact that their daughter ran away with the postman--on the Democrats. Then the Repubicans can make gains again."

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