Vance and Lance: The Selection Begins

Just 31 days after his election, Jimmy Carter made his first Cabinet-level appointments and thereby offered the first solid clues as to the future shape of his Administration. As Secretary of State, he selected Cyrus Vance, 59, an urbane, methodical, Yale-educated Manhattan lawyer who had been Deputy Defense Secretary in the Johnson Administration and a familiar figure in and around U.S. foreign policy for more than a decade. At the same time, Carter also announced that a close personal friend, Thomas Bertram Lance, 45, a bulky (6 ft. 4 in., 235 Ibs.), blunt-speaking banker and college dropout from the mountains of north Georgia, would direct his Office of Management and Budget (TIME, Dec. 6). For all their sharp differences in background and style, Vance and Lance (reporters who had impatiently awaited the announcement cracked that the pair sounded like a vaudeville team) seemed to fit the emerging Administration's needs. They symbolized experience, directness, a concern for efficiency, but--so far at least--nothing to undermine confidence or shock conservatives.

To a world worried about the relatively unknown Carter's intentions, Vance's appearance in Plains was reassuring. "Cy Vance is well known and widely respected here," observed a British diplomat in London. "He is an able and tough negotiator and is well plugged into our own foreign policy establishment." France's Foreign Minister Louis de Guiringuad applauded Carter's nomination of "a man of finesse and tact and intelligence."

In the U.S., former Secretary of State Dean Rusk called Vance "a superb appointment," praising his "direct and exceptional experience, sound and solid judgment," as well as his administrative ability. Former Under Secretary of State George Ball said Vance was "a very natural choice because he is so well equipped; he is also a fellow without enemies." Even Henry Kissinger was known to approve of him. Lunching with TIME editors not long ago, Kissinger was asked whom he preferred to be his successor. He needed to think only a few seconds before saying, "Cy Vance. He has the experience, the intelligence and the ability."

Front Runner. Vance was the front runner for State from the start, mainly because so many of the people to whom the President-elect and his transition planners turned for suggestions almost automatically mentioned Vance first and with high praise. Said one Carter aide: "Vance received universally favorable comments across the whole spectrum of ideologies--including hawks and liberal, dovish types."

Partly Vance has had so few critics because he has never allowed himself to become cemented in fixed positions on issues. Carter first met Vance when he was Governor of Georgia and Vance was involved in promoting the United Negro College Fund. Over the years, Carter consulted with Vance on various matters, and the two developed a liking for each other. In 1973 they both became members of the Trilateral Commission, an organization sponsored by David Rockefeller that seeks to promote closer ties among the countries of Western Europe, North America and Japan.

Early this year, as Carter's primary campaign picked up momentum, the Georgian asked Vance to help prepare his foreign policy positions. He agreed. When Carter won the nomination and the election, Vance felt fairly certain he would wind up in the Administration.

George Ball, although often touted as a candidate for the State job, was probably never under serious consideration; his outspokenness did not seem to fit in with the measured Carter style. But Paul Warnke, an assistant Secretary of Defense under Johnson and an early dove on Viet Nam, was in contention for a while. So was Paul Nitze, another Pentagon intellectual and an arms-limitation negotiator; but Nitze was soon ruled out as too hawkish. James Schlesinger, the Defense Secretary dismissed by Ford in a policy dispute, remained a possibility, but his abrasive brilliance seemed less suited to diplomacy than to running herd on the Pentagon or U.S. intelligence organizations--jobs for which he is still being considered.

One tip-off that Vance felt he might have the State post clinched came a week ago Sunday, when he had a friend make some soundings about the personnel situation at the department. Then on Tuesday Vance flew unannounced to Plains, joined a meeting of economic experts, and conferred with the President-elect for 5 1/2 hours as he stayed overnight at Carter's house. The job was finally offered at that interview session.

No. 2 Man. Foreign affairs experts in the U.S. and abroad generally regard Vance as an ideal No. 2 man--a smooth and skillful executor as opposed to formulator of policy. This obviously is what Carter, who intends to be in complete charge of U.S. conduct of foreign affairs, wants in a Secretary of State.

Under Carter and Vance, the basics of U.S. foreign policy will not change much from the ones that Gerald Ford and Henry Kissinger leave behind. But there will be a substantial difference of style (see box). At the press conference in Plains at which Carter's appointments were announced, Vance put himself in line with one of Carter's campaign pledges by promising to be guided by "a deep concern for human rights" in his conduct of foreign policy. But he pointed out that "one has to deal also with the practicalities of the situation" --a reassuring note to many U.S. allies who feared that the Carter Administration might be too concerned with morality in a world where raw power is still the main arbiter in international affairs.

Vance shares Carter's belief that the U.S. must collaborate more closely with its European allies and Japan. He favors maintaining strong conventional forces in Europe. In the Middle East, Vance will probably push for an overall settlement between Israel and the Arab countries, perhaps at a new Geneva Conference, rather than try to revive Kissinger's step-by-step approach. While the Carter Administration will remain committed to detente with Moscow, Eugene Rostow, Under Secretary of State in the Johnson Administration, predicted that Vance "will be polite and firm [with the Soviets]. He will not be desperate for an agreement at any price."

The Russians, for their part, seemed eager to start off on agreeable terms with the Carter Administration. Early in the week, at a Kremlin dinner for 150 U.S. business and Government leaders attending a trade meeting in Moscow, Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev talked over their heads toward Plains in urging a speedup in the arms limitation negotiations. At least partly, Brezhnev's remark seemed to reflect Soviet sensitivity over speculation in the West that the Kremlin would aggressively move to test the toughness of the new Administration (TIME, Nov. 29).

Treasury Secretary William Simon, one of the guests at the Moscow dinner, carried home a direct message to Carter from Brezhnev, who sought to assure the President-elect that he had no intention of "testing" or embarrassing him after he moved into the White House in January. While welcome, the Brezhnev message did not signal any shift in negotiating specifics.

Where Carter does face immediate testing is in the area of domestic economic policy. As unemployment climbed to 8.1%--the highest level since December 1975--and concern about the pause in the recovery persisted. Carter declared that "in all likelihood" he will seek some means of stimulating the economy shortly after he assumes office.

Conciliatory Step. Meanwhile, Carter made a halfhearted and probably ill-advised attempt to persuade the steel industry to cut back its announced price increases (see ECONOMY & BUSINESS). Taking a conciliatory step back from his campaign talk. Carter later reiterated that he would not seek authority to invoke wage and price controls ("I believe in the free-market system") but might try to establish voluntary guidelines in close consultation with industry and labor.

Lingering uncertainty about the new Administration's attitudes toward business and economic policy added to pressures on Carter to move swiftly in lining up his full economic team. In a letter to the New York Times last week, Gabriel Hauge, chairman of Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co., urged Carter to appoint officials quickly that had the confidence of businessmen, who have been wary about pursuing expansion plans. If Carter did so, Hauge argued, he might touch off a burst of spending that "could be worth $10 billion to $20 billion" in terms of economic growth by the time any policy action Carter might take after assuming office could have an impact.

Carter, in fact, might name his Treasury Secretary as early as this week. The leading contenders apparently included Economist Charles Schultze, a former Budget director under Johnson; Andrew Brimmer, perhaps the nation's most prominent black economist and a former member of the Federal Reserve Board; and Michael Blumenthal, chairman of the Bendix Corp. and a former deputy assistant Secretary of State. Another possible choice was Irving Shapiro, head of Du Pont.

Those four were among a group of 16 business and economic experts Carter summoned to Plains last week for a four-hour brainstorming session. The Commerce Secretary and the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as well as several lesser economic officials, may also come from this select 16--who had the potentially unnerving experience of offering their views in one another's presence even as Carter studied them to help determine his final choices.

Special Rapport. As a few of the experts left the meeting early, Press Secretary Jody Powell joked, "It's an elimination process up there. Every 15 minutes they take a vote, and everybody who gets less than three votes leaves." Some thought they detected a special rapport between Carter and Schultze. Most of those present had frequently been mentioned for top economic jobs in the Carter Administration, although there were a few surprises, notably Duke University Vice President Juanita M. Kreps and Laurence Lynn, professor of public policy at Harvard.

Carter has said he "hoped" to have all his Cabinet announcements made by Christmas. Compared with past incoming Administrations, the pace of the Carter transition has been somewhat sedate.* But Carter aides argue that the quality of the choices will be far more important than the speed with which they are selected.

* In 1952, Dwight Eisenhower filled his first Cabinet jobs (State, Defense, and Interior) on Nov. 20, and completed the nominating process on Dec. 1. In 1960, John Kennedy made his first Cabinet announcement (Health, Education and Welfare) on Dec. 1 and his last on Dec. 17. In 1968, Richard Nixon withheld his choices until he could present his entire Cabinet on television on Dec. 11.

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