Air Bags: Will They Ever Sell?

I studied the technical data, and then I made up my mind that air bags work. But they cannot be imposed instantly on people.

Thus did Secretary of Transportation William T. Coleman Jr. explain an odd-sounding ruling last week. He admitted that air bags--which inflate instantly upon impact of a collision, keeping the driver and front-seat riders from being hurled against the dashboard or windshield--might save an estimated 12,000 lives a year if installed on all U.S.-made cars. Nonetheless, he refused to order such universal installation. Instead, Coleman asked the car companies to outfit 500,000 cars with air bags during the next two model years, in what would amount to a mass test.

His decision will keep alive a controversy that has been raging for seven years. Advocates of air bags, led by Ralph Nader and some insurance companies, especially Allstate, have demanded that the Government order the bags put in all cars. Allstate's argument: use of the air bags would mean fewer deaths and serious injuries, thus also fewer lawsuits, smaller claims payments and, ultimately, lower insurance rates. Automakers regard the bags as vastly overrated.

Failed Fiat. The automen are relieved that they will not have to spend the $600 million that would have been necessary to equip all 1978-model cars with air bags. But they are none too happy about Coleman's request that they put up $48 million of their own money to conduct a demonstration project over the next two years--which they regard as an offer they cannot refuse.

The automen's misgivings paled in comparison to Nader's fury. He shrilly denounced Coleman's caution as "a massive act of irresponsibility that will doom thousands of Americans to needless death and injury on the highway." Nader vowed that he would ask the Secretary of Transportation in the Carter Administration to reverse the ruling.

Coleman caustically noted that under a previous chief, his department had ordered the "interlock" system (the engine would not start unless a combination lap-shoulder belt was fastened) on 1974-model autos, but that public anger against this federal fiat caused Congress to repeal the requirement for 1975 models. Coleman argued that a similar Washington mandate concerning air bags would have the same result.

In sales experiments so far, air bags have indeed proved unpopular. General Motors offered air bags as an option on some models in 1974 at $225 per car and at slightly higher prices for the next two model years. GM thought it might sell 300,000 air-bag autos per year, but total sales were only 11,000.

No Panacea. Actually, while they may indeed save some lives, air bags are no panacea for auto safety. They are most effective in frontal crashes taking place at less than 30 m.p.h., such as occur when a car hits a tree or light pole--but most head-on collisions between two cars are much more violent. Air bags are not effective in side swipes, back-end collisions, or multiple jolts (they deflate in a fraction of a second after the initial impact).

Air bags also occasionally inflate when there is no collision, startling and possibly interfering with the driver. Such misfires occurred on ten of the 11,000 air-bag cars that GM sold--a tiny proportion but still worrisome. The most convincing argument against the bags, however, is that at present the driving public just does not want them--a point that Coleman concedes, though he thinks the attitude can be changed.

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