Brezhnev: A Comfortable Hero

By Marsh Clark

Not since Stalin became a septuagenarian in 1949 has there been such an outpouring of praise in the Soviet Union. Newspapers daily headlined Party Chief Leonid Brezhnev's long record of accomplishments. He was festooned with medals from the Communist states of Eastern Europe. His life was depicted in a documentary film, his collected speeches were issued in new editions, and the official news agency Tass carried a synopsis of his career that covered eleven feet of Teletype paper. These celebrations underscored Brezhnev's position as the sole survivor among the big-power leaders of the past decade. Lyndon Johnson, Charles de Gaulle and Mao Tsetung are dead. The two men with whom he fashioned the concept of detente--Richard Nixon and Willy Brandt--no longer lead. Last week, as Brezhnev reached his 70th birthday, TIME'S Moscow correspondent Marsh Clark cabled this assessment of the Soviet leader:

Brezhnev at 70 looks in robust health, negating rumors over the past three years that he was nearing the end of the road because of cancer or leukemia, gout or heart trouble. He has given up smoking at the insistence of his doctors. He puts in a busy schedule. His one concession to age is that he now wears a hearing aid in public. There is no indication that he plans to retire voluntarily, which would be an unprecedented action for the top Soviet leader.

Potential rivals have been dealt with ruthlessly. One, the relatively youthful Alexander Shelepin, 58, was dismissed from the Politburo almost two years ago and has not been heard of since. The sin of Whiz Kid Shelepin was that he tried to build a political base from which to promote his own post-Brezhnev candidacy for the top post. Another highly regarded younger man. Dmitri Polyansky, 59, had the misfortune of presiding as Minister of Agriculture during last year's disastrously poor grain harvest. Brezhnev blamed the harvest on bad weather but sent Polyansky packing as Ambassador to Japan anyway.

Brezhnev's departure from power could set off a struggle for succession, since there is no designated heir. The closest thing to a favorite has been Andrei Kirilenko, a colorless functionary who sometimes stands in for Brezhnev when he is on vacation. But Kirilenko is also 70.

It would be reasonable to look for Brezhnev's heir among leaders now in their middle or late 50s. In this age group, though, the Kremlin's cupboard is nearly bare. Only three of the 15 Politburo members are under 60; only one of these. Fyodor Kulakov, 58, appears to be correctly positioned for a run at the top job. Kulakov, an agronomist and highly visible Brezhnev protege, delivered the keynote speech at this year's traditional observation of the Bolshevik Revolution.

Brezhnev inherited many problems from his rambunctious, buccaneering predecessor, Nikita Khrushchev--icy relations with the West, a desire for more freedom in the Soviet satellite states of Eastern Europe, an economy retarded by the chaotic situation in agriculture brought about by Khrushchev's constant tinkering.

Brezhnev did not make the mistake of moving all the way toward one-man power, as Khrushchev did during his last days. Therefore, responsibility for success or failure could be shared with other members of the Politburo. Brezhnev--praised by Richard Nixon more than once as the shrewdest of shrewd politicians--accomplished "collegia!" rule with astonishing success. He has nonetheless had mixed results in foreign policy, his principal achievement having been to convince his colleagues that detente with the West is desirable and necessary. The thriving state of Communist parties in Italy, France and elsewhere is taken by Moscow as proof of capitalism's weakness--although Brezhnev is less pleased that these par ties are successfully resisting the notion that all ideological truth emanates from Moscow. Brezhnev's main failure has been in the Middle East, where two of the Kremlin's most trusted clients, the Syrians and the Palestinians, spent much of this year shooting at each other. Another old ally, Egypt, has abrogated its Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union.

Brezhnev has approved increases in the Soviet military budget that have financed an unparalleled improvement in Russian missilery and a vast enlargement of the Soviet navy. This has sparked a lively debate about the need for strengthening NATO and has undoubtedly caused the U.S. to keep its defense spending up.

Nonetheless, observers in Moscow detect a distinct mellowness in some Brezhnev-dictated policies. Last month he passed word through outgoing Treasury Secretary William Simon to the President-elect that the Soviet Union has no intention of testing Carter in the early days of his Administration.

In the wake of the death of Archenemy Mao, Brezhnev has guided Soviet policy toward China along distinctly conciliatory lines. Said he recently: "There are no issues that could not be resolved in the spirit of good-neighborliness [between Russia and China]."

There remain nagging problems at home. Despite what appears to be a record grain crop in 1976 (about 223 million metric tons), Brezhnev was forced to announce this fall that he intends to plow $228 billion more into the farm sector in the next five years, acknowledging that this would crimp other sectors of the economy. He attacked shortcomings in efficiency and quality, and the "puny, partial improvements" in production of consumer goods, but offered little hope for improvement.

With his new marshal's uniform decked out in numerous awards and medals, with his name glorified in official journals and his words studied by every Russian schoolchild, Brezhnev can scarcely avoid the charge that he has created a cult of personality that may soon rival that of Stalin or Mao. Brezhnev is comfortable in his hero's role, but, particularly in the Soviet Union, fame is fleeting. Stalin's name is not often mentioned, and Khrushchev's has been expunged from the official language. Yet when Khrushchev celebrated his own 70th birthday in 1964, it was Brezhnev who led the cheering: "Dear Nikita Sergeyevich, your marvelous deeds have won you the love of all our party, the whole Soviet people. This fills our hearts with joy and pride in you." Six months later. Khrushchev was unceremoniously pitched out of office, and Brezhnev took over.

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