After the Vance Mission: Signs of Hope

"Henry Kissinger was Henry Kissinger and Cyrus Vance is Cyrus Vance. They don't have to be the same. We like them both." Thus spoke the grand old lady of Israeli politics, former Premier Golda Meir, after meeting with the new Secretary of State during the first stop of his first foreign mission. Her conclusion was shared by just about everyone who met the lanky, soft-spoken Vance along the route of his six-day, six-nation swing (not to be called a shuttle) through the Middle East last week.

He lacked the dazzle of his flamboyant predecessor, but his low-key, almost reticent manner and his quiet sense of competence impressed his hosts. By his very visit, so early in the new Carter Administration, he restored momentum to the long-stalled peacemaking process. At Israel's Ben-Gurion Airport he proclaimed that his would "not be an easy task nor one which is quickly achieved." But he arrived in the Middle East when hopes for peace were higher than at any time since the 1973 war.

Vance did not come bearing any grand new schemes, and he listened more than he spoke. At each of his stops, his approach was basically the same --except for Lebanon, where he concentrated almost exclusively on the internal problems of that war-torn country. In Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria, he was the persistent interlocutor, running through his list of prepared questions in an attempt to discover new subtleties in the Arab and Israeli positions. How much occupied territory, for example, should Israel relinquish? When and how ought the Geneva talks to be reconvened? What role should the United Nations play? What about the Palestinians' participation at the talks and the shape of an eventual political entity for them?

It was this last question that brought the most startling and encouraging response. With the approval of Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat told Vance that his country now favors "an official link between the Palestinian state and Jordan--even before Geneva [talks] start." This link, Sadat explained, could be "some sort of confederation." The proposal was highly significant for various reasons. Arafat's apparent concurrence probably signals that he is now prepared to mend his bitter, six-year-old rift with Jordan's King Hussein; if so, this would remove one of the Middle East's major irritants.

Moreover, if a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation really came about, Israel might regard it as far safer than a completely independent Palestinian state. In the shorter run, a confederation might also satisfy Israel's publicly stated conditions for dealing with the P.L.O. In Jerusalem, on the day before he went to Cairo, Vance was persuaded by passionate Israeli arguments that Israel could not be expected to sit down with a P.L.O. delegation so long as the P.L.O. covenant explicitly rejects Israel's right to exist. But Israeli officials also told the Secretary that they would tolerate Palestinians at the bargaining table if they were there as part of a Jordanian or united Arab delegation. The proposed confederation would seem to meet these demands. There is also the chance that the P.L.O. will soon drop the most offensive passages from its covenant; in his meeting with Vance, Sadat said he would press moderate P.L.O. leaders to revise the document when the Palestinian National Council meets next month in Cairo.

Jordan's King Hussein has long favored Unking his country with a Palestinian state. Earlier this month, in an interview with TIME (Feb. 14), he said: "Some years ago we had the vision to suggest a federation of Palestine and Jordan. Now maybe this plan can be looked at again." The King, of course, envisages two states, each with its own Parliament, united under his Hashemite crown. The Israelis were particularly cautious in their reaction to the Sadat proposal, arguing that they could not comment until they discussed its details with U.S. officials. Vance, however, told newsmen that Sadat's plan is "constructive. There appears to be a narrowing of the different positions, [though] I don't want to say there aren't still very serious substantive differences."

Secure Frontiers. But on the crucial question of border adjustments, Vance heard almost nothing new. The Israelis continued to insist that security considerations require them to keep some of the land that they have held since the 1967 war. At a state dinner for the American diplomat, Israeli Foreign Minister Yigal Allon declared that "Israel must be allowed to live within defensible borders." While U.N. resolutions also insist that Israel is entitled to "secure" frontiers, there has been no consensus on what constitutes security. The Israelis' meaning has generally been indicated by the pattern of their settlements in the occupied lands: the former Arab sector of Jerusalem has been annexed and declared Israel's undivided capital; 32 Israeli villages now flourish on the West Bank of the Jordan, and most Israeli leaders insist on retaining that river as their eastern border; Israeli settlements have begun mushrooming in the Sinai.

Sadat reiterated his longstanding position on the occupied lands. He told Vance that if Israel would quit all the territories it has taken since 1967, including Jerusalem, he would end the state of belligerency. But open borders, full diplomatic ties and the other elements of full-fledged peace demanded by Israel, Sadat repeated, could not be written into a peace treaty; they must evolve.

As always, Sadat was eager to maintain good relations with the U.S. While in Cairo, Vance was elaborately thanked for the $500 million aid the U.S. granted Egypt immediately after the January food riots, and for Washington's decision--announced during the Secretary's visit--canceling the transfer to Israel of the devastatingly powerful CBU-72 concussion bombs. But Sadat emphasized that his country's crippled economy needs continued financial support from the U.S. and that his armed forces require new weapons and spare parts, since they are no longer being supplied by the Soviet Union.

Sadat seemed determined to begin forging a close personal relationship with his visitor. He just about memorized all available magazine and newspaper clippings about Vance and devoured a fat dossier, describing the American's personality and negotiating techniques, that had been prepared by Cypriot Archbishop Makarios, who dealt with Vance during the 1967 Cyprus negotiations. Restraining himself from the bear hugs with which he used to welcome Henry Kissinger, Sadat greeted Kissinger's successor as Secretary of State with warm handshakes and friendly grabs of his shoulders.

While the Israelis were not quite so effusive, Premier Yitzhak Rabin did declare that "I'm not nervous about the basic attitudes of President Carter or Secretary Vance toward Israel." The American diplomat had taken great pains to assure Israelis that the new U.S. Administration was fully committed to their country's survival.

Still, there were some touchy moments. Vance had to listen patiently to his hosts complain about Washington's blocking the sale of 24 Israeli-made Kfir warplanes to Ecuador (the jets would be powered by American-made General Electric engines). Jerusalem was also smarting under the Carter Administration's criticism of Israel's oil prospecting in the Gulf of Suez.

In some respects, Vance's arrival in Israel was extraordinarily inconvenient for his hosts; they were almost totally distracted by domestic political turmoil. The Labor Party of Premier Rabin was reeling from the latest in a series of scandals; Asher Yadlin, a former high-ranking Labor Party member, had just pleaded guilty to kickback charges and allowed that the money he received had gone into the party's coffers. Rabin was uncertain of his tenure in office. Not only is he facing a strong challenge from opposition parties in the national elections scheduled for May 17, but he may not even be Labor's standardbearer. There is a possibility that this week's Labor Party convention will dump Rabin and nominate Defense Minister Shimon Peres.

Scent of Conciliation. Vance found a turmoil of a different and more embarrassing sort in Jordan. Just as the Secretary arrived, the kingdom was rocked by reports from Washington that King Hussein has been receiving payments from the CIA for the past two decades. Vance refused to comment on the matter, but it clearly cast a pall on his talks with one of America's oldest and most reliable friends in the Middle East.

Vance will now have to decide how the U.S. can best exploit the accumulating signs of hope for peace. Perhaps more important than the specific policy positions he heard--most were probably no more than opening maximum bargaining stances--is the increasingly powerful scent of conciliation that seems to be permeating the region. According to TIME Correspondent Wilton Wynn in Cairo, Sadat seems genuinely interested in peace and has been missing no opportunity to demonstrate that he is a moderate. From Jerusalem, TIME Correspondent Donald Neff notes that Israeli officials, while still insisting on retaining some occupied territories and familiar conditions, readily admit that the Egyptian and Syrian leaders are not madmen but rather rational figures with whom Israel "can do business."

Soon Vance will have to go beyond mere listening and fact finding to hard negotiating. This he is certain to do when Arab and Israeli leaders come calling at the White House. Israel's Rabin is scheduled to arrive next month (even if he fails to be renominated by the Labor Party); the Arab heads of state are expected by late spring. If all goes well, momentum could be created for the "Geneva-type conference" that Vance expects will be convened "in the second half of 1977."

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