A Big Bird in a Land of Hawks and Doves

The political aviary of Israel includes hawks and superhawks, doves and superdoves.* It also contains at least one vulture. That is what "peres" literally means in Hebrew, and Defense Minister Shimon Peres, 53, judging by last week's events, is most likely to be Israel's big bird after next month's general election. The adroit, self-confident Peres (see box) easily won the Labor Party's nomination for Premier at a special caucus of the central committee. Yitzhak Rabin, forced to step down after disclosures that his wife had illegally maintained bank accounts in the U.S. (TIME, April 18), was among those who lifted hands in assent amid shouts of "Mazel tov [good luck], Shimon."

Disappointing Leader. Although there were a few grumbles from Labor's dovish coalition ally, the leftist Mapam group, the virtually unanimous vote for Peres seemed to unite the splintered Labor Party. Voters accepted Rabin's abdication with mixed feelings. He had been an uncertain and disappointing leader. But he was also the first sabra (native-born Israeli) to become Premier; the abrupt downfall of one of the "sons of the founders" had tragic communal overtones.

Outside Israel, there was speculation on what the change in leadership might mean in terms of Middle East peace negotiations. Although Peres has a reputation for being rather hawkish, some Arab observers concluded that the Defense Minister was potentially a stronger leader than Rabin--a plus from their viewpoint. But they also wondered whether Peres--if indeed he manages to form a government--will have a mandate to accept the kind of territorial concessions that may be necessary for peace.

A Polish-born immigrant, Peres speaks French better than English, and he seems almost Continental in style and outlook. But the Defense Minister also prides himself on his American connections made as a student at Harvard and the New School for Social Research, and as an arms negotiator for Israel during the Kennedy Administration. U.S. diplomats will probably find that Peres is a more imaginative negotiator than Rabin but equally unbending in his defense of Israel's need for security.

Flash polls last week indicated that Peres' selection had improved Labor's previously sagging election chances; expectations were that the party might take 43 of the 120 Knesset seats, instead of 39. But the Defense Minister still has two large obstacles to face. One is Rabin's continuing presence on the Labor slate as a candidate for a Knesset seat. Voters will be reminded that the party has not totally repudiated a man whose administration was plagued with scandal and who seemed incapable of handling Israel's endemic inflation. Peres' other problem is the strength of Labor's main political opposition. No fewer than 23 parties are contesting the election. They range from the Communists (who will pick up most of the Israeli Arab protest vote) to a weird fringe group whose main platform plank demands sexual satisfaction for women. Labor's strongest challenger is the Likud (Unity) coalition, which had 40 seats in the last Knesset. Next is the brand new middle-of-the-road Democratic Movement for Change. Polls indicate that it might win at least 12 seats.

No Successor. Likud, a union of hawkish groups that insists on retaining the occupied territories, is led by a right-wing former Irgun terrorist, Menachem Begin. Hospitalized last month by a heart attack, Begin, 63, will miss the campaigning. Ironically, many voters who detest Begin might be drawn to Likud if he were to resign as the leader. But since he has no logical successor, the coalition could fall apart.

By contrast, the new Democratic Movement for Change seems to have too many leaders rather than too few.

Founded by Dead Sea Scrolls Archaeologist Yigal Yadin, Israel's onetime Chief of Staff, the party has an imposing roster of intellectuals and former generals on its slate. Although voters fancy Yadin's attacks on corruption and demands for reforms in Israel's complex, indirect election system, many are puzzled by the new party's lack of ideological focus. Even so, pollsters predict that the D.M.C. could hold the balance of power in the new Knesset.

That would certainly present Peres with his first political crisis: if the new party does well, Peres might have to hand over some key Cabinet posts in order to create a victorious Labor coalition.

Meanwhile, Rabin last week was characteristically uncertain about his future plans. Rather than seek a trial that might demean the office of Premier, he readily paid a token $ 1,600 fine for having been the co-signer of his wife's illicit bank account. His wife Leah, however, was formally indicted; if found guilty, she could be fined up to $63,000 and sentenced to three years in prison. Although he quit as Labor candidate for Israel's top job, Rabin could not resign office immediately; as head of a caretaker government, he was bound by law to stay on until a new government is formed after the May 17 elections. Sensitive to the situation, Attorney General Aharon Barak suggested a loophole in the law that would allow a caretaker to step down if the Premier were "absent from the country or temporarily unable to fulfill his duty." Rabin at first refused to take advantage of this option, which fueled rumors that he might be planning a political comeback. At week's end, however, Rabin indicated that he would take an extended vacation. This cleared the way for Shimon Peres to move in as caretaker Premier and get a little advance training on the job he expects to hold after May 17.

*Superhawks are distinguishable by feathers that ruffle at the thought of returning any occupied territory to Arabs, while superdoves would cooingly surrender most of the territory in exchange for a firm peace. Ordinary hawks and doves would make only minor adjustments of Israel's present borders.

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