A Raging War on the Horn of Africa

"We will fight until there is only one bullet and one Eritrean left. After that, Ethiopia can take our country back."

So says Mohammed Abu Baker, 21, a partisan in a bitter civil war that rages today on the politically volatile Horn of Africa. On one side is the army of Ethiopia's despotic military rulers, who are struggling to hold together the empire of the late Haile Selassie, whom they deposed in 1974. On the other are the 4 million people of Eritrea, Ethiopia's northern province. But also involved in the drama are the Soviet Union, Cuba, most of the Arab states, and the U.S.--and at stake is who will eventually control the strategic oil routes of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

A onetime Italian colony that was captured by the British in 1941, Eritrea was federated with Ethiopia, under a United Nations decision, in 1952 and a decade later was formally annexed by Selassie--an action that the Eritreans still regard as outright colonialism. Their outrage sparked a tiny guerrilla uprising that eventually became a full-scale war, perhaps the largest war now being fought anywhere in the world. In the process, reports TIME Correspondent Dean Brelis after touring the savanna and highland battlefront, the Eritreans have built an extraordinarily effective fighting machine of at least 25,000 men equipped with artillery and rockets. They control at least 85% of the province and all but 300,000 of its people, and their eventual victory appears assured. Says Ahmed Mohammed Nasser, 32, chairman of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), largest of the three Eritrean nationalist movements: "I cannot tell you what day or what year we will be independent. But I am sure Eritrea will become an independent state. That is why our people are fighting."

The Ethiopians fear that the loss of Eritrea could become the first important step in the disintegration of their country. They have been training 200,000 peasant militiamen to make a sort of human-wave assault on Eritrea, reinforcing the 25,000 hard-pressed regular troops on duty in the province. But the Eritreans are far more highly motivated. "We didn't see any reason to fight and die here," explained one of the 500 Ethiopians who surrendered during their recent losing battle for the city of Tessenei. "The Eritreans wanted a victory, and they got it. We want to go home."

Two Tanks. Two years ago, the Eritrean forces had no vehicles at all; they relied on hundreds of camels for transporting supplies and ammunition and for evacuating their wounded. Today they have trucks, Land Rovers, an ambulance and two tanks, most of them hijacked from the Ethiopians. The Eritreans have learned to combat Ethiopian airpower effectively with everything from rifles and machine guns to captured missiles and conventional antiaircraft guns. In the territory they control, the rebels run schools, clinics, plantations and even small factories. At present, they are engaged in an all-out offensive to capture what they do not yet control: the provincial capital of Asmara and four other cities and towns.

In Asmara, the city that Benito Mussolini called "the gem of the Horn of Africa," the Ethiopian army is increasingly nervous. The vital 56-mile highway to the port of Massawa, as well as all other roads, is frequently cut, if not actually controlled, by Eritrean forces. The railroad from the port of Assab carries no traffic; its bridges have been destroyed by guerrillas. Ethiopian army units dare not travel unescorted more than a few miles outside the capital. When they do go farther, they move by convoy with tank protection and air cover. Their supplies arrive only by air--at an airfield that is well within the capital city.

There are 150,000 Eritreans in Asmara, and every one is a potential saboteur--"our Trojan horse," says one Ethiopian commander, referring to the civilian population. Two weeks ago, the E.L.F. sent a radio message to its units inside Asmara advising them that buses were urgently needed to carry wounded soldiers to a field hospital. The response came 24 hours later: eight large Ethiopian buses were hijacked just after midnight, spirited out of the city and driven to an E.L.F. aid station 20 miles away.

High Morale. Because of their common cause and recent victories, the E.L.F. soldiers' morale is high. By tradition, they have no specific ranks; all are known as "fighters," even 14-year-old recruits, and commanding officers are elected by their men. Each fighter dresses as he pleases, but all wear black plastic sandals that are said to be good in any weather and any terrain. Every recruit receives two months of basic military training and a heavy dose of Marxist political indoctrination; recent emphasis has been on the writings of Mao Tse-tung and on vague plans for a socialist state after independence. "Socialism will be dominant," Chairman Nasser told TIME'S Brelis, "but we will have to define it as we go along."

Among outside powers, who supports whom in the conflict? To keep track of this, you need patience, a scorecard--and a map. Eritrea is backed by neighboring Sudan, which has long been at odds with Ethiopia and which provides most of the Eritreans' supplies via truck convoys. Radio Ethiopia regularly beams anti-Sudanese broadcasts to Khartoum, threatening to behead Sudanese President Jaafar Numeiry if and when the Ethiopian peasant army manages to roll into Sudan. In response, Khartoum-based Radio Eritrea advises Ethiopians: "We surround your troops in every city they illegally occupy. The war is doomed to end in a disastrous effort."

The Eritreans today are also supported by most of the other Arab states--Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and Kuwait. The Arabs have always tended to favor the Eritreans over the Ethiopians because they wanted the region to be Arab-oriented. Today the Arab states support Eritrea for an additional reason: the Soviets support Eritrea's enemy, Ethiopia. The Arabs are anxious that the Horn of Africa should not become a Russian zone of influence.

In the past three years, the Soviet position in the region has undergone a diplomatic battering. The Russians have lost the important role they once played in both Egypt and Sudan, but have built a new bastion in Ethiopia. (The U.S., at the same time, has strengthened its ties with Cairo and Khartoum but, with the fall of Haile Selassie and the rise of the leftist military regime in Addis Ababa, has lost out there.) The Soviets have given the Ethiopians $100 million in military aid, while Libya's Strongman Muammar Gaddafi--ever the Arab world's odd man out--has done the same. Moreover, an estimated 3,000 Cubans are now in Ethiopia helping to prepare the peasant army for its assault on Eritrea.

Ancient Enemies. The Soviet position on the Horn is highly vulnerable. Moscow has previously paid a heavy price--in military and other aid--for the friendship of Somalia. But the Somalis and the Ethiopians are ancient enemies, and the Soviet backing of Ethiopia is sharply watched in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital. When Cuban Premier Fidel Castro visited Mogadishu two months ago, he proposed that Somalia join Ethiopia and Southern Yemen in a federated state--an alliance that would have vastly strengthened Moscow's influence. Somali President Mohammed Siad Barre said no thanks, and complained bitterly about the Soviet Strela (SA-7) missiles that the Ethiopians had begun to receive from Moscow.

The Somalis' irritation is nothing compared to the bitterness of the Eritreans, who once received help from both the Soviets and the Cubans. Says an E.L.F. officer who was trained in Cuba: "All my feelings about Cuba have changed. I hate them, and that goes for the Russians too. The Arabs have proven themselves to be our brothers. That's why we are a democratic revolution, and not a Communist one."

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