NUTCRACKER SUITE

En route with Vance on a mission almost impossible

The mission confronting Secretary of State Cyrus Vance was to learn as he put it, "how to crack the hard nuts that have to be cracked So last week Vance flew in and it of the familiar way stations of Middle Eastern diplomacy--Alexandria Beirut, Damascus ... En route he heard a revised and promising version of a formula for indirect negotiations between Israel and the Arabs--but in almost no time at all the region's quarreling states proved that this solution would not be acceptable. Thus by week's end, with his eleven-day trip mostly over, all that the top U .S. envoy could say with certainty about Middle East nutcracking was that few world problems have so tough a shell as the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Vance's first stop was Alexandria, the 2,300-year-old metropolis of the Nile Delta, to which nearly 2 million Cairenes--among them Egyptian President Anwar badat--flee each summer to escape the capital's stifling heat. The Secretary, who suffers from a chronically bad back arrived fatigued from his 13-hour flight. Although he was limping slightly because of a calf muscle he had pulled the previous day in a tennis game with World Bank President Robert McNamara, he headed directly for Sadat's lavish four-story seaside villa. As Vance approached, Sadat began opening his arms for the traditional Arab embrace with which he used to greet Henry Kissinger; he quickly checked himself when the very reserved American thrust forward his arm for a handshake.

Sitting by moonlight in overstuffed wicker chairs on the manicured lawn Vance and Sadat surveyed the Middle East situation for 3 1/2 hours-more than twice as long as the American had anticipated. During the session, which was later characterized in American diplomatic phrases as "very useful" and "constructive," Vance put forward some of the proposals" he had brought with him from Washington. Among them: that the Palestine Liberation Organization be allowed to participate in a Geneva Peace Conference only after it recognizes Israel s right to exist; that the boundaries of Isarel be a matter for negotiation; that "real peace" include not only an end to the state of belligerency but also full diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and the Arab states.

Sadat rejected Vance's suggestions and repeated a number of now familiar Arab positions: Israel must pull back from all the territories it captured in 1967; the Palestinians must be represented at a Geneva Conference; full relations between the Arabs and Israelis can only come a few years after the end of belligerency.

But despite that stalemate on specifics, Sadat was full of optimism and ebullience, and he proposed a series of alternatives. The only one that was made public was a plan known as "working group. According to this scheme, the foreign Ministers of Egypt, Syria and Jordan would go to New York or Washington to bargain indirectly with Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan, with Vance acting as a go-between. Because the working group" would fall short of being a formal conference, the P.L.O. probably need not be included. That would neatly circumvent Israel's refusal to negotiate with the P.L.O. as well as the Arab commitment to having the P.L.O. at Geneva

In all, Vance had two sessions with Sadat and one with Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy before departing Egypt for a four-hour stop in Lebanon, where he pledged $142 million in military and economic aid. Then on to Damascus for a 3 1/2hour session with Syria's President Hafez Assad who promptly shot down the whole idea of the working group." In a 45-minute news conference, the Syrian leader explained: "There is a possibility that this working group would be looked upon as a competitor to the Geneva Conference, and I do not think that any of us would like to look at it in this way." More ominous was Assad' s general rejection of the other suggestions that Vance brought. When asked if the American's visit had advanced peace the Syrian replied: "Not necessarily There are no new data that make us closer to Geneva than we were two days ago " Insisting that the fate of the Palestinians is the"mother question," Assad refused to budge from his long-standing demand that the P.L.O. be included at Geneva. Although he refused to rule out a Geneva conference for this year. Assad's general attitude belied the flexibility that President Carter claims to have perceived during their May meeting.

Vance did not not meet with any Palestinians, but P.L.O. Chief Yasser Arafat preceded (and in some places also followed) the U.S. diplomat at every stop except Jordan. Arriving in Alexandria after Vance had departed, Arafat convinced Sadat to modify the "working group" idea by including--as a smiling Arafat described it--"a new paragraph on the Palestinians." Added an Egyptian official: "It leaves no doubt that the Palestinian rights will be respected."

But by the time Vance had finished his three-hour meeting with Jordan's King Hussein at the luxurious Hashimiyeh Palace outside Amman, he had scrapped the working group" idea. The Syrians and Jordanians had apparently convinced him that any talks this fall will be strictly bilateral. More significantly, Vance said that the U.S. now preferred the kind of Geneva Conference the Arabs have in mind. Despite major differences on the question of Israeli withdrawals and the Palestinians, the Jordanians were happy with the results of the talks, now sensing that Washington is coming around to the Arab view on both issues. Jordan felt, said one senior official, "increasing support internationally and in the U.S. for the Arab demands."

After having touched base with the key Arab leaders, Vance this week arrives in Jerusalem to brief the Israelis. They do ot quite know what to expect, for the Sectary has not been consulting the Israeli leaders. Stated Naftali Lavie, Foreign Minister Dayan's spokesman: "We are totally in the dark." In his talks with Vance Premier Menachem Begin will probably balk at negotiating any substantive issues of a potential peace settlement. As he did during his summit with Carter last month Begin will focus on procedural points insisting that substantive points are better solved at a conference with the Arab states.

At the moment, however Vance seems to be concentrating less on how to get to Geneva than on the possibilities of a peace settlement. Though far more disagreements than agreements remain between the Arabs and Israelis, Vance said in Jordan that there is "some narrowing of differences"--though only about the terms of peace, not about the Palestinian question. Moreover, the Secretary of State has managed to secure at least one positive sign: the Arabs genuinely want to keep talking. Nonetheless, the odds of a Geneva Conference by October are virtually nil, though Vance still hopes that a reunion will occur by the end of the year That, however, will depend upon a tremendous amount of work--and luck.

Unless Vance, in the time remaining on his tour begins to crack some of the Middle East's hard nuts. Jimmy Carter's optimism will be heavily discounted. Administration officials already have grim forebodings; the region's leaders warn that time is running short. Sadat has said that if this is not the year for peace, hate and war will again be in terrible, senseless ascendancy," while an Israeli Cabinet minister added: "If the situation freezes again, we will face another crisis."

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