Sliding Down the Polls

A TIME survey shows doubts about Carter's ability but faith in his idealism

Jimmy Carter likes to tell the story about a drunk hauled into a Georgia court, accused of starting a hotel fire while smoking in bed. He admits being drunk but denies igniting the blaze. "Your honor," he tells the judge, "the bed was already on fire when I got in it."

That Georgia thigh-slapper provides the President with a metaphor to explain the trouble he has faced for almost a year. When he took office, his desk was piled high with work undone, needs neglected, problems postponed. Such urgent tasks as creating an energy policy, stopping the drain of Social Security funds and reforming the tax and welfare systems had been ignored or put off, largely because nobody had solutions that seemed workable or politically feasible. Like a quarterback who prefers the long bomb to the drudgery of three yards and a cloud of dust, the President threw a lot of comprehensive programs at Congress. Often his timing was poor, his leadership inadequate, his grasp of the politics shaky. But unquestionably Carter has made gains along with his celebrated setbacks.

Congress recessed last week for a month-long holiday without enacting his energy bill, and Carter called that the "only major failure" of his legislative program in 1977. But he had reason to believe, as he told his press conference, that Congress would complete action "early next year." Indeed, Senate and House conferees were coming closer to compromise. While Carter certainly would not get all he wants, and industry would not get all it wants either in terms of incentives, he had set the nation on the path toward sensible conservation and development of energy.

Meanwhile, the Congress agreed to legislation that would restore financial stability to the Social Security system--at the cost of a huge payroll tax increase (see following story). Partly to make up for it, the President said that next year "we'll have a major [income] tax reduction for both business and individuals" as well as "substantial tax reform."

Though he has abandoned his idea of eliminating tax benefits for capital gains, at least in 1978, businessmen remained uncertain and apprehensive about what tax reform might bring. Through word and deed, Carter has also antagonized many other key voting groups. Farmers were disturbed because he had proposed lower price supports than a more generous Congress decided they merited. (At his press conference Carter expressed sympathy for the plight of many farmers but said that he would not have participated in their strike if he were still working the land in Sumpter County, Ga.) Labor was miffed because he did not put up protectionist walls against imports, and wanted him to endorse a larger increase in the minimum wage. Many women were antagonized by his opposition to federally paid abortions for the poor. Blacks and big-city mayors were upset that he did not call for more big-spending programs for federal jobs and urban revival.

Small wonder then that Carter has taken a pasting in the public opinion polls. His Gallup popularity rating, which rocketed to 75% in March when the public was enamored of his folksy style, dropped to 56% in late November. By that measure, Carter fell farther in his first ten months in office than any of his five immediate predecessors, except for Gerald Ford.

TIME has now confirmed Carter's slide in a more detailed poll, one of a series conducted for the magazine by the opinion-research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc. But the telephone survey of 1,050 registered voters also turned up some favorable portents. It indicated reviews as mixed as Carter gets in Washington--some good, some bad, some mystified.

The poll showed that disappointment over Carter's performance and doubts about his ability to handle some problems, notably those involving the economy, are growing quickly and significantly. The President has been unable to enlarge or harden his base of support; but he still has the opportunity to do so because most citizens continue to believe he is highly intelligent, industrious, idealistic, moral and supportive of the average person's interests. In short, the public remains captivated by the virtues that won him followers during the election campaign. Even the Bert Lance affair made almost no dent in the popular perception of Carter's probity. Further, responses to broader questions unrelated to Carter indicate no significant change over the last several months in the public's feelings about the country's general condition and prospects.

What if, knowing what they know now, voters could choose again between Carter and Gerald Ford? Asked that question, 44% chose Carter, 41% supported Ford and 15% were not sure. This means the voters would elect Carter with just about the same plurality they gave him last year. The South and the Northeast are still the regions friendliest to Carter, while the Midwest is the region least hospitable to him in a test match against onetime Mid westerner Ford. The racial breakdown shows that blacks, despite criticism of Carter by their leaders, remain his strongest supporters; 66% would vote for him, 18% for Ford.

That Carter gets such a small edge over a defeated rival who has substantial opposition within his own party is a sign of the President's difficulties. That 15% made no choice is an even bigger indication of the electorate's uncertainty. On all counts Americans in the late fall of 1977 appear to be ambivalent, inward-looking and far more concerned with pocketbook problems than any other issue.

Though the inflation rate has moderated and 3.5 million more Americans have jobs than a year ago, the voters still cite high prices and unemployment as their biggest worries. Those saying that they have "a lot" of confidence in Carter to cope with these issues have diminished from 33% in March to 18% last month, while those with "practically no" confidence have increased from 12% to 23%.

Disappointment of a more general nature also forms a bearish trendline for Carter. In each of the three Time/Yankelovich surveys starting in mid-March, voters were asked if their impressions of the President had changed since Inauguration Day. Over the eight months, those with more favorable impressions have decreased from 48% to 17%, while those whose views of him are worse have quintupled to 29%. The people who said that their feelings had grown more negative were asked to explain why. The two reasons mentioned most often were that Carter has not lived up to his promises and seems unable to get things done. These and other responses to the survey add up to disappointment that Carter is not a stronger leader.

Many voters appear to have contradictory feelings. Carter's leadership on energy has been more vigorous than on any other issue, and the percentage of those acknowledging the severity of the energy problem has grown steadily. That should be a plus for the President. Yet, confidence in his ability to deal with the issue has declined. Carter's largest slippage has been in those areas where he promised the most in the campaign: making Americans feel good about themselves, providing jobs for those who want to work, reforming the welfare and tax systems.

Another inconsistency shows up in comparing the diminishing approval of Carter with the voters' sense of the nation's condition and their own economic security. They show no increase in distress. Yankelovich has-developed an economic insecurity indicator that measures the proportion of people who say that they are seriously worried about losing their jobs and paying their bills. This indicator has dipped since March from 31% to 28%, meaning that fewer individuals feel financially threatened now. Asked whether they had a higher or lower standard of living than a year ago, 30% said that they are better off, while only 20% felt worse off, the balance felt no change.

The overall state-of-the-nation barometer, based on questions that measure how people feel about the country's condition and their confidence in its future, has fluctuated in a narrow band since the first post-Inauguration sampling. Now at 45, it is two points below the March figure, but still five points higher than at the time of the 1977 election.

The poll makes clear that the status quo, while tolerable to many, is not enough to generate enthusiasm for a President who fostered such high hopes. What would be enough is not certain. For example, responding to a question on taxation, 69% said that they felt cheated in terms of services received. Yet 61% favored a federal employment bill that would guarantee a job to everybody who wants one--a step that would surely demand more taxes and presumably raise the possibility of increasingly inferior services.

TIME'S poll suggests strongly that Carter, who ran for office as an unconventional, nonEstablishment politician, is paying a price for that aloof status. He remains an enigmatic figure and one who has yet to learn the amorphous art of building constituencies to get things done.

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