On the Verge of Stalemate

Another Vance mission, but the peace process is near breakdown

Cyrus Vance flew off to the Middle East again last week. This time, the ever cautious Secretary of State conceded that his chances of achieving anything substantial were almost nil. Reason: the peace process, so carefully nurtured by the U.S., is one step short of total breakdown. Last week Egyptian President Anwar Sadat informed State Department Troubleshooter Alfred Atherton Jr. that Egypt would not participate in any new talks until Israel agreed to return the occupied territories. Meeting Vance at the Tel Aviv Airport, Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan sounded an encouraging note when he said: "In order to get a settlement, everyone, every party, has to make compromises and concessions."

Washington had been fully aware of Sadat's dismay at the outcome of the Foreign Ministers' meeting at Leeds Castle last month. Matters worsened when Premier Menachem Begin rejected Sadat's discreet suggestion that Israel might return Saint Catherine's Monastery and El Arish, the capital of the Sinai, to Egypt as a token of good will. Begin seized on the proposal, which Sadat had never intended to be publicized, as an opportunity for public defiance. "Nobody can get anything for nothing," said Begin. Sadat, embarrassed, accused Begin of deliberately sabotaging the peace talks.

Until Sadat's flat veto on further talks, Vance had hoped to meet with Dayan and his Egyptian counterpart, Mohammed Ibrahim Kamel, at the U.S. watch station in the Sinai and had even hoped that the Defense Ministers of both sides would attend. Sadat had insisted all along that there must be "new elements" from Israel before Egypt would participate in more talks. Washington expected that Dayan's hint at Leeds that Israel would be amenable to discussing "territorial compromise" in the West Bank would be sufficient. Instead, Sadat denounced the concept as fraudulent and negative. The Egyptian President's tough stand stunned the Carter Administration. "We are very disappointed," declared State Department Spokesman Hodding Carter. After talking over the situation with President Carter, Vance announced that he would go to Jerusalem and Alexandria anyway in hopes of achieving a "better understanding of where we stand."

High-level officials in Washington believe that there are a number of reasons why Sadat decided to dig in his heels. In addition to his deep personal antipathy toward Begin, Sadat has grown increasingly impatient over Israeli stalling and U.S. reluctance to put forth a plan of its own, which Cairo thinks would serve to pressure Israel into some concessions. The most important factor, however, is believed to be a new Saudi Arabian campaign for Arab unity, aimed at reconciling Sadat and Syrian President Hafez Assad, who broke with Egypt over Sadat's visit to Jerusalem last November.

A few hours after Atherton left the Egyptian summer capital of Alexandria last week, Saudi Crown Prince Fahd arrived there for talks with Sadat. His aim was to persuade Sadat--and later Assad--to meet during the fast of Ramadan (which began last week) in Medina, a suitable holy place for a brotherly reunion. The plan calls for Jordan's King Hussein to join them there. Thus, by early September, when the Arab Foreign Ministers are scheduled to meet in Cairo, the groundwork would have been laid for an Arab summit to follow.

The split among the confrontation states never sat very well with the Saudis, though they adopted a wait-and-see attitude toward Sadat's peace initiative. As hopes for progress diminished, the Saudis--who give financial support to both Egypt and Syria--decided that the time had come to press for unity. They reasoned that before the Arabs could hope for a stronger American participation in shaping a Middle East settlement, it was necessary for Syria and Egypt to present a united front. The political significance of a Sadat-Assad reconciliation would not be lost on Israel, and it would enable King Hussein to enter the talks to help solve the Palestinian question. A united Arab front, of course, also involves the potential for concerted economic pressure on the U.S. to pressure Israel in turn.

In an interview with TIME Correspondent Dean Brelis last week, Egyptian Foreign Minister Kamel insisted that Sadat's decision does not mean the collapse of his peace initiative. "[But] we do not feel that negotiations are an end in themselves," he said. "We think that negotiations should lead to something constructive and positive, and on this we might differ from the U.S. approach." Kamel added that he had mentioned to Atherton that "this approach of trying to find where the Israeli proposal of self-rule and the Egyptian proposal for the West Bank and Gaza have common grounds will lead to nothing. The philosophy and objectives of both proposals are totally contradictory and opposite. The Israeli proposal of self-rule is based on the continued Israeli occupation of the West Bank. Our proposal is based on [U.N. Security Council Resolution] 242, and the starting point is withdrawal. I told them it is like saying that there is a resemblance between a cobra and a gazelle."

For their part, the Israelis were overjoyed by Washington's expressed "disappointment" with Sadat and what they perceived to be the onus being put on Egypt for scuttling the peace talks. "The truth that Israel is not intransigent has begun to dawn," proclaimed Begin. But the Premier's ebullience was not shared by some other members of his Cabinet, notably Defense Minister Ezer Weizman, or by his top intelligence officials, who see Begin's handling of the negotiations as inept and dangerous.

Most observers believe that neither Egypt nor Syria is in any military position to mount a new war any time soon. But Washington does not altogether rule out that possibility or the likelihood of new Arab economic pressure. Thus Vance hopes to leave Israel for Alexandria with some promise of flexibility that he can present to Sadat. Failing that, the U.S. may soon have to lay its own cards on the table--in the form of a Washington plan for peace. -

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