The Undeclared Campaign

Neck-and-neck jockeying for an autumn election

The posters that sprang up across Britain last week showed long lines at an unemployment office and carried a stinging message: LABOUR ISN'T WORKING. The posters drew howls from ruling Labor Party benches in the House of Commons--thereby letting the opposition Conservatives know they had struck a raw nerve or two. The Tories had fired the first salvo in an undeclared campaign for the election that Prime Minister James Callaghan is expected to call some time in the autumn.

The five-year Labor government mandate does not run out until October 1979, but as Parliament adjourned last week, the campaign lines were clearly drawn. Both of Britain's major parties-expect the election to be fought primarily over economic issues.

The signboard assault made clear that Tory Leader Margaret Thatcher intends to make much of Britain's unemployment rate, now at 5.6% and rising. The Tories are heavily banking on polls showing that Britons, for the first time in a decade, appear to be more worried about joblessness than inflation. To be sure, the Conservatives will also hit hard on the theme that consumer prices have doubled after four years of Labor government. Meanwhile, the prim Mrs. Thatcher will keep up the brisk ideological tone she has given to Conservative policy since she took over as leader in 1975. Says she: "This will be a watershed election. The basic issue is liberty vs. collectivism."

Laborites will answer that Britain is returning to better economic times--and ask whether it will continue to do so under Tory rule. Thanks in large part to North Sea oil, and despite the unemployment problem, Britain has steadily climbed out of its economic morass of three years ago. Prime Minister Callaghan feels his government deserves the credit. One of his last acts before Parliament recessed was to secure endorsement of a 5% suggested national limit on wage increases. Previous Labor-inspired wage guidelines have been instrumental in reducing Britain's inflation rate to 7.5%, from the 26% of 1975.

Although some venturesome bookies rate the Conservatives as 6-to-4 favorites, most opinion polls show the two parties running virtually neck-and-neck; this is a triumph of sorts for Labor, which two years ago was trailing by 22 points. A key question for the government, however, is the future electoral fate of the faltering Liberal Party, whose 13 M.P.'s provided the margin of victory for Labor on numerous key votes in the 635-seat Commons. Last week the Liberals were dealt a staggering blow outside Parliament (see following story), which made their balloting prospects look even bleaker. If the Liberals lose more ground, most of their disaffected supporters are expected to back the Conservatives. Says one Labor M.P.: "The Tories have only to hold their own vote and pick up two out of five Liberal votes, and they've won."

So close is the election race that, in a departure from tradition, the personalities of the competing leaders will make a significant difference. With his avuncular "Sunny Jim" image, Callaghan still ranks six points ahead of Thatcher in the popularity polls, although lately she has impressively narrowed the gap.

In head-to-head parliamentary debates, some of which are now nationally broadcast on BBC radio, the Prime Minister has consistently outpointed his Tory challenger. As if in recognition of a tough election fight ahead, Callaghan has begun to launch a few harpoons at his rival. Borrowing from Dryden's Absalom and Achitophel, for example, the Prime Minister has scoffed at Thatcher in the Commons as "Stiff in opinions, always in the wrong; Was every thing by starts, and nothing long." Thatcher, who can indeed be starchy at times, gave an uninspired response to that pointed sally, in which she dismissed as "a little optimistic" any hopes of hearing "an intellectual argument" from Callaghan. Tory backbenchers listened in uncomfortable silence. -

*Current standings in the House: Labor, 305 seats; Conservatives, 284; Liberals, 13; Scottish Nationalists, 11; others, 22.

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