Passing a Patch of Blue Sky

Callaghan postpones an autumn election

London's bookies were already taking bets on the election's outcome. An estimated $1 million worth of Tory Party advertising was bursting from billboards and TV sets proclaiming LABOR ISN'T WORKING. Conservative Party Leader Margaret Thatcher, 52, canceled a holiday trip to France and waded into a twelve-hour-a-day schedule of speeches and political appearances. For his part, Prime Minister James ("Sunny Jim") Callaghan, 66, seemed as caught up as everyone else in a pre-election whirl, trumpeting the virtues of his Labor Party at the annual Trades Union Congress in a rousing partisan speech that brought delegates to their feet.

But last week the election balloon that had seemed to be nearing takeoff in Britain for most of the summer ran flat out of hot air. In a move that stunned pundits and outraged political opponents, the Prime Minister announced in a four-minute televised address to his countrymen that his minority Labor government would not call for a general election next month, as nearly everyone thought it would. Declared Callaghan: "The government must and will continue to carry out policies which are consistent and determined, which do not chop and change ..." In practical terms, that almost certainly postponed Britain's next election until spring, and under the law Callaghan could draw out the suspense until the following November.

Britain's P.M. watchers had been expecting Callaghan to move ever since the sagging Liberal Party walked out on the 17-month-old "Lib-Lab" pact in August, taking with it its 13 crucial parliamentary votes. That left Labor nine votes short of a majority--and, in the opinion of most analysts, with little choice but to go to the polls. Instead, Callaghan evidently patched together a working majority by bargaining for the 14 yeas and nays held by Welsh and Scottish Nationalists. These extra votes should enable Callaghan to survive a Tory test of confidence in November, when the Queen delivers her annual government-written speech to Parliament. It is virtually inconceivable that Callaghan would have decided to hold on without the Nationalists' promise of help.

On the strength of some indicators, Callaghan would seem to have little cause for seeking the delay. The latest polls show Labor running only slightly behind the Tories in voter approval, 47% to 45%, a vastly improved standing from that of only a year ago. Yet Callaghan and some of his closest advisers were not so sure. Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey, in particular, warned the Prime Minister "not to go for the first patch of blue sky." His reasoning: there is a good chance that Britain's economic recovery, notably a decline in inflation from 26% a year in 1975 to less than 8% at present, will have more impact on voters in another six months or so than now. Labor expects another benefit from the postponement: a new register of voters due next February will include a heavy proportion of 18-year-olds, who tend to vote Labor.

By mid-August, Callaghan had decided to wait--then sat watching in amusement as the Tories scrambled needlessly to get ready for a campaign. Just hours before last Thursday's statement, says a Cabinet member, Callaghan "with a droll grin told us what he was going to do. There was a burst of laughter around the table and some good-humored comment on how he had handled it."

Caught with their leaflets out and their campaign war chest partly spent, the Tories were understandably furious. Predicting that Callaghan's decision would lead to a period of "hand-to-mouth" government, Thatcher declared: "He has lost his majority and with it the authority to govern. He should now properly seek the verdict of the people." Even the London Times, which had bestowed lavish praise on Callaghan's record a day earlier, was disappointed by a decision that "condemned the country to probably another half year of pre-election tension." If Callaghan wins his gamble, however, that will seem a modest enough price for another lease on No. 10 Downing Street. .

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