The Bull Wins

JAPAN

A disciple of give and take

"Frankly," admitted a stunned Premier Takeo Fukuda, "I was astounded." "It was a surprise to me, too," aid Masayoshi Ohira, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (L.D.P.). What startled them and their countrymen last week was the result of a four-way race for Fukuda's job as the leader of the L.D.P. and, therefore, of Japan's government. Though the experts had forecast a dull election in which the urbane Fukuda, 73, would easily win a second term, he was thoroughly whipped by Ohira, 68, a deliberate, unassuming technocrat known in Japanese politics as the Dongyu--the slow-thinking bull.

Washington was equally startled. Fukuda was a particular favorite of President Carter, despite the 20-year difference in their ages. Fukuda at least appeared to understand American irritation over the imbalance in trade between the two countries that has been one main cause of the dollar's tribulations. Ohira intends to continue and even increase support for the greenback (see box). But because Ohira, as chief Cabinet secretary to Premier Hayato Ikeda in 1960, was an architect of Japan's spectacularly successful drive to make Japan an exporting juggernaut, Washington is uncertain about how eager he will be to trim those exports at a time when Japan's domestic economy has turned sluggish.

It was attention to domestic problems that forged Ohira's upset victory. Until this year the L.D.P., which has held control of Japan's parliamentary government since it was formed in 1955, always picked its leader, who automatically becomes Premier, in a caucus of L.D.P. members in the Diet. In a party composed of strong and combative factions, this led to open vote buying, bribery and scandal. With former Premier Kakuei Tanaka now on trial in the Lockheed influence-peddling scandal, the L.D.P. decided to try to clean up its image as a party of feuding bosses and "black mist" (bribe money) by choosing their leader this time in a kind of national primary in which all 1.5 million party members would be eligible to vote (87% did). Fukuda emphasized his foreign policy accomplishments, such as the recent ratification of a peace treaty with China. Ohira, who as party secretary-general knew where the new votes were, went around the country emphasizing domestic issues, such as the need for improving rural living conditions.

Ohira was also helped by the backing of the wealthy and politically crafty Tanaka, who is a longtime foe of Fukuda. Tanaka, who still heads one of the strongest L.D.P. factions despite the corruption charges, helped devise Ohira's winning strategy, which was to lie low until two weeks before the vote, then launch a costly, eleventh-hour campaign blitz. Lulled by the polls, which consistently showed him with a comfortable lead, Fukuda never had time to counterattack.

Ohira is a stocky, heavy-lidded farmer's son who sifts his thoughts, acts cautiously and speaks slowly. But behind Ohira's placid manner lurks a strong mind and steel will. He is more intellectual than most Japanese politicians. At least once a week he visits a bookstore to browse and buy; he reads Japanese authors and foreign writers in translation (a recent acquisition: John Kenneth Galbraith's The Age of Uncertainty).

As a high school student, he converted to Christianity, became a teetotaler--a true rarity in Japan's political circles --and for a time preached the gospel on street corners. After graduating from Tokyo University of Commerce in 1936 with an economics degree, he managed to get a job in the Finance Ministry, which traditionally recruited only from the elite Tokyo and Kyoto universities.

Ohira spent the World War II years in the Finance Ministry. Early in the 1950s he went into politics, eventually winning ten terms in the Diet. In 1960 he started his climb to power by moving from one ministry or Cabinet post to another in different L.D.P. governments. He has been Finance Minister and Minister of International Trade and Industry; he has also been Foreign Minister twice in different regimes. As Tanaka's Foreign Minister in 1972, he initiated the restoration of relations with Peking.

One colleague describes Ohira's party role as "the lubricating oil that smoothed things out." His ability to mediate was to become his main political asset. "Confrontation is a waste of energy," he has said. "A little give and take is much more efficient in politics."

Three times since 1972, Ohira has had a chance to drive for the party leadership, but on each occasion the reluctant bull backed away. The last time, in 1975, he and Fukuda, his opponent, reportedly made an oral agreement that Ohira would withdraw and support Fukuda and that Fukuda in turn would step aside as Premier and party leader at the end of his term, in Ohira's favor. Fukuda apparently reneged on the deal, and that may be what finally moved Ohira to put up a real fight for the leadership.

Ohira was Finance Minister in 1975 when Jimmy Carter, then an ex-Governor from Georgia with ambitions, went to Japan for a Trilateral Commission meeting. To Ohira, whom he met on that trip, Carter made a confident promise that he would see him "next time at the White House." When Ohira takes him up on that invitation, his Oval Office visit will be more than a courtesy call.

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