Hard Choices in Tehran

After two weeks of mounting tension, the frightening holy days ended last week--and the Shah still sat upon the Peacock Throne. Tehran was like a city that had survived a siege all but unscathed. Shops and schools were reopening, and office workers were returning to their jobs. Chieftain tanks and Russian-built armored cars, which had been in evidence everywhere, were now out of sight. Soldiers ventured into restaurants and parked their automatic weapons in corners as they ate. Locked in a monumental traffic jam, a Western diplomat sighed: "Things are back to normal in Tehran."

Well, not quite. The Shah had gained, at best, some breathing time in which to come to terms with his massive opposition. Oil workers were still on strike, costing Iran as much as $60 million a day in lost revenues and cutting production to as little as one-fifth of the normal flow. Premier Gholam Reza Azhari went on television to appeal to the oil workers to go back to work, declaring that their strike was "bending the backs of 34 million Iranians." Azhari said he was "ashamed to admit" that petroleum-rich Iran was being forced to import kerosene, which most Iranians use for heating and cooking.

The flash point had been passed Sunday, when millions of Iranians staged peaceful demonstrations against the Shah throughout the country. Some government leaders, including the military governor of Tehran, General Gholam Ali Ovisi, had wanted to stop the demonstrators "mercilessly." But Premier Azhari, who is also the armed forces chief of staff, argued that bloodshed should be avoided at all costs, and the Shah agreed. Accordingly, the government promised to withdraw its forces to north Tehran, leaving the heart of the city free for the demonstrators. In return, the organizers of the demonstration promised to discipline their ranks and pledged that there would be no rioting or burning. Both sides kept their word.

On Monday, the Shi'ite Muslim day of mourning known as Ashura, the parades were much more hostile, with thousands chanting "Death to the Shah!" By tradition, the faithful demonstrate their sorrow over the slaying of Husain, the grandson of Muhammad, in the 7th century A.D. by flagellating themselves with chains. But this year the Ashura ceremonies were in reality political parades led by turbaned mullahs. When asked what had happened to the ancient observance that had dominated the day of mourning for more than 1,300 years, one young marcher in Tehran replied: "We have more important things to do today than mourn Husain."

The demonstrations were much more violent in the industrial city of Isfahan, 210 miles south of the capital, where troops first withdrew from the downtown area and then battled for hours to restore order. For two days thereafter, the army staged demonstrations in support of the Shah in several other cities. In a particularly ugly incident, three on-duty soldiers opened fire with automatic weapons in the mess hall of an army camp just two miles from the Shah's Niavaran Palace in north Tehran; six noncommissioned officers were killed and ten wounded in the shooting.

As the demonstrations subsided, the struggle between the regime and its opponents became increasingly one of rumor and propaganda. At one point, word spread through Iran's Shi'ite Muslim community that Ayatullah (Sign of God) Qumi of Mashhad had dreamed that he had been visited by Imam Reza, a saint of ancient times. In the dream, Reza complained that Shi'ite Leader Ayatullah Khomeini had been turning Muslim against Muslim and that his teachings were thus running counter to Islamic law. Among the faithful, many were stunned; others dismissed the report as a government trick.

The Shah continued his unsuccessful efforts to put together a civilian government. He needs to find a strong Premier absolute monarch, and must take urgent steps if he wants to ensure the survival of the Pahlavi dynasty. In Ball's view, the best the Shah could hope for would be a constitutional monarchy containing moderate members of the opposition. An alternative would be to establish a regency under his son, Crown Prince Reza, who is now in advanced fighter-pilot training in Texas. Ideally, this regency would be supported by moderate opposition leaders, middle-ranking army officers and key religious leaders.

Ball's conclusions differed from the views of the man who invited him to Washington to review U.S. policy on Iran: Carter's National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Until now at least, Brzezinski has held that the U.S. should back the Shah staunchly, in part because of the unsettling effects any wavering about the Shah might have on such other monarchies as Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Officials insisted that as of last week, however, there was no disagreement within the Administration on fundamental points. Certainly the Ball report's conclusions are shared by most Middle East experts at the State Department. As one Middle East specialist describes it, the view is that "the longer the chaos continues, the more difficult the solution, and the longer the Shah waits, the fewer the options he will retain."

One major problem is the army. Since the Shah derives his strength from the army, it may prove difficult to convince him of the wisdom of relinquishing control of it. Similarly, the army's loyalty could be stretched to the breaking point if the Shah should appear to be doing anything to weaken his own authority and thus that of his armed forces. A confidant of the Shah's said late last week that there were only two possibilities left: either there would be a civilian government with strong support or there would be a military coup from either the left or right. The fact that someone close to the throne would even mention such a possibility underscores just how serious the Shah's situation has become. There was one other small straw blowing in the ill wind: a Massachusetts book publisher last week received an order from a Tehran bookstore for one of its titles: Leadership and Change.

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