More Than Just A Border Clash

Saudi fears about subversion

For more than a decade, Saudi Arabia has viewed with much alarm the Marxist, pro-Moscow regime in the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen), a government so far to the left that it considers Iraq a "fascist state." South Yemen, the Saudis believe, wants to destabilize and subvert the entire Arabian Peninsula. That gloomy view gained credibility last week as South Yemen, taking advantage of a long-simmering border dispute, launched an all-out attack on its more populous but militarily weaker northern neighbor, pro-Saudi North Yemen (The Yemen Arab Republic). A ceasefire, hastily worked out by Syria and Iraq, went into effect at week's end, but there was no certainty about how long it would last.

Frontier skirmishing between the two states began several years after South Yemen gained its independence from Britain in 1967. The people of the two Yemens consider themselves to be one nation, but the radically different political views of their governments have made reunion impossible. According to North Yemen, Aden mounted the latest invasion to halt an embarrassing exodus from the south--perhaps 20,000 people since last June. The North Yemenis also charged that the invading forces had killed "large numbers of women and children" in an assault led by Soviet-supplied planes, tanks and artillery. Although claims to captured territory were difficult to verify in the remote and mountainous region, the South Yemen forces had apparently seized the towns of Maryas and Qataba and the surrounding border province of Al Baidha.

The conflict came at an awkward moment for Saudi Arabia; its Foreign Minister, Prince Saud, was receiving his South Yemeni counterpart when the violence broke out. The two men had been arranging a visit to Riyadh by South Yemen's President, Abdel Fattah Ismail, in an attempt to relax regional tensions, ultimately leading to the departure of a reported 3,900 Soviet, Cuban and East German troops and advisers harbored by the South Yemen government. The Saudis, who have underwritten 1 billion dollars in arms for the northern San'a regime, immediately put their 45,000-man army on alert, recalled 1,000 troops assigned to the Arab peace-keeping force in Lebanon and joined North Yemen in demands for mediation.

The Saudis also criticized the U.S., which it charged was dismissing the Yemen conflict as "just another border clash that doesn't mean anything." Said one Saudi official: "This is not a border clash, it is a full-scale war with the potential to spread in all directions and bring catastrophe to the entire gulf." The Saudis believe that Aden wants to unify the two Yemens by force and fear that after the collapse of American influence in Iran, Washington may not respond strongly enough to Communist subversion in the Arabian Peninsula. The Saudis are also worried about renewed South Yemeni backing of Marxist insurgents in the Dhofar region of Oman, whose rebellion was checked three years ago only with the help of forces supplied by the now-deposed Shah of Iran.

As it happens, Washington is worried about South Yemen's adventurism, if only because it is a matter of such vital concern to the Saudis. The State Department condemned the intervention, and the Administration announced that it would step up deliveries of $140 million worth of military supplies to North Yemen--paid for by the Saudis--in an effort to redress the military imbalance. In addition to its assorted East bloc advisers, South Yemen has a 25,000-man army, at least 50 jet fighters and 300 tanks. Comparable figures for the north: 10,000 troops, 30 planes, 200 tanks. Washington stands ready to do even more. During his swing through the Middle East, Defense Secretary Harold Brown announced that the U.S. would provide $400 million worth of advanced defensive equipment to North Yemen. This too would be paid for by the troubled Saudis. sb

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