The Price of Peace

"If this is a fair estimate of the cost," said Senate RepubIlican Leader Howard Baker, "it's a real bargain." Declared House Republican Leader John Rhodes: "I don't think it'll be a problem." Insisted House Speaker Tip O'Neill: "It's a cheap price." Joked a White House aide: "See, we got it for you wholesale."

The soothing comments were prompted by Jimmy Carter's private assurance to congressional leaders that the U.S. price tag for the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty would be only "a little over $4 billion" in additional aid stretched over three years. Administration officials later raised this estimate to nearly $5 billion, with Israel and Egypt each getting about $2 billion more for military aid and $500 million more each for economic support over the three years. Israel now gets $1.8 billion and Egypt $.8 billion annually, making them the largest U.S. aid recipients.

There was widespread speculation that the estimates will prove to be low. The figures had come as a relief to the legislators largely because unofficial predictions as high as $15 billion had been published. The President's approximations were apparently based solely on the basic commitments he had made to carry out the treaty terms. They include paying part of the cost of moving military equipment from two major airbases that Israel must abandon in the Sinai and establishing similar bases within Israel in the Negev desert. A U.S. survey team estimated the cost at $1 billion, and Israel has predicted that $3 billion more would be required to make the new bases operational.

Another U.S. obligation that was at least implied during the treaty negotiations was that Washington would help make up for any cut in economic aid that Egypt now gets, primarily from Saudi Arabia, plus small amounts from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. That aid runs at close to $3 billion a year. Other Arab nations are expected to apply pressure to end this Arab help to Sadat. If that were to happen, the Administration would apparently be ready to add some unspecified portion of the $3 billion to the U.S. contribution to Egypt.

The third treaty commitment involving a possible cost to the U.S. was the American guarantee that it would provide oil from its own resources if Israel cannot buy its normal oil supplies on the world market. Of greater concern in Congress than the cost, if any, is the likely adverse public reaction to sending oil to Israel if there are shortages within the U.S. The Administration argues, however, that any Israeli oil deficiency would be an insignificant portion of U.S. supplies.

Perhaps the biggest question is whether Carter can resist the requests from both Egypt and Israel for aid beyond the amounts involved in supporting the treaty. The defense ministers of both nations arrived in Washington last week to present their shopping lists. Egypt is seeking help to buy 600 M-60 tanks, 300 F-16 fighter aircraft, 70 transport planes, and up to eight destroyers or submarines. In nonmilitary aid, Egypt wants funds for housing, agricultural production and a new telephone system. In arms alone, Israel wants various tanks, naval guns, missile systems and armored personnel carriers.

The price of all this hardware remained subject to bargaining. Said Defense Secretary Harold Brown: "You've heard a lot of figures and you'll hear a lot more." Illinois Republican Congressman Robert Michel went further, predicting: "When all the diplomatic fine print is exposed, every one of Carter's bear hugs with Sadat and Begin will cost the American taxpayer a billion dollars or more per hug."

The peace bill comes at a time when Carter is fighting to hold down the federal budget deficit, advocates of various domestic programs are clamoring for more money, and inflation is a foremost concern of Americans. White House aides scoff at any inflationary impact of the treaty. "It's just a flea bite on that elephant," says one. But as the near euphoria over the peace treaty fades and the costs linger -and most likely increase -congressional and public resistance to paying the price could yet prove a formidable problem.

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