The Trouble Is Serious

That is the state of the nation, says a majority in a TIME poll

Optimism and self-confidence are as inherently American as the right to the pursuit of happiness. Just two years ago, most people responded to a TIME poll by saying they believed that the nation's problems were no worse than usual, that inflation would probably subside or a least get no worse, and that newly elected President Carter was a man in whom they could fully place their trust. That sunny view of the nation's affairs has been giving way to a gloomy and even slightly fearful mood. Haunted by anxiety about continually rising prices, which hit a painful annual rate of 9.5% during the first quarter of this year, plus a heightened concern about energy supplies and nuclear safety, Americans have turned increasingly sour on their own prospects. Specifically, they have become more pessimistic that Carter or any other politician will be able to cure the most pressing of their problems, inflation.

These are among the findings of a survey of 1,024 people completed this month for TIME by the opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc. The poll found that a record low 23% of those questioned feel things are going well in this country, compared with 45% in June 1977. The poll also found that Carter, who rose substantially in popularity in the wake of his Camp David meetings last September with Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin, has again fallen into low esteem in the country. The President has lost important ground to all his political opponents.

The main concern of Americans polled continues to be the rate of inflation and the apparent inability of the Government to cope with it. Nearly two-thirds of those questioned placed inflation at the very top of their list of worries, while more traditional fears like crime in the streets dropped sharply. The state of general gloom seemed to be deepened by the people's belated realization that the nation's energy problems are genuine. Sixty-three percent said they now worry a lot about an energy shortage, indicating that Carter has perhaps convinced the nation of the severity of this problem, if not of his competence to solve it.

Out of these apprehensions comes the belief by 64% of the sample that "the country is in deep and serious trouble," an opinion shared by only 41% one year ago.

On a more personal level, concern about paying bills has risen, as has anxiety about the inability to save for the future. Nearly half of those questioned reported having to dip into what savings they have to make ends meet. More than one-third have trimmed their gifts to charity because of higher living costs. Twenty-one percent say they have taken second jobs, and 32% of the men say their wives have gone out to work to bring in extra money.

All over the country, Americans have begun making small changes in life-styles to deal with rising prices. In Pittsburgh, for example, Newspaper Reporter Helen Kaiser abandoned her dream of having a band perform at her wedding next month. Says she: "I've decided to tape the music in advance and play it over the speaker system." While stores in citadels of wealth like Beverly Hills report booming business, others in similar areas in Texas say that even their wealthier clients are cutting back. One Neiman-Marcus saleswoman has just transferred from the high-fashion department to a moderately priced dress section where, she says, "I see all my old customers."

The basic problem for most people is the price of food. Says Judy Carey of Little Rock, Ark.: "For one thing, I quit buying ground beef. The junk food had to go. And we're using leftovers wherever we can. Yesterday we had a chefs salad for dinner. Sunday it was a casserole because we can get two meals out of it." Philadelphia Quality Control Technician Leo Valz has tired of supplying expensive snacks for his three children. Solution: do-it-yourself pizzas costing $16 for 24 shells, a big can of tomato sauce and a big bag of cheese. Says Valz: "A nighttime snack doesn't break our backs any more. I just wish they sold make-it-yourself steaks."

Some consumer groups advocate that a one-day-a-week beef boycott be organized to resist meat increases, which amounted to 110% at an annual rate for hamburger in the past three months. But beef producers retort that this will only aggravate the long-run shortage by discouraging the building of new beef herds. One Georgia grocery-store manager reports on his customers' switching to cheaper meats: "They're not boycotting beef, they just can't afford it."

Second on most people's list of price problems comes the cost of fuel. For new car buyers, this produced a high demand for gas-saving automobiles. In New England, the use of wood to replace high-priced oil has grown so much that last week New Hampshire was forced to establish a lottery for woodcutting privileges in state-owned forests.

What could be done? The Yankelovich survey showed that the public favors a variety of rather stringent measures to curb inflation. Half of those surveyed said mandatory price controls would help check inflation, even though popular opposition is usually considered one of the main reasons why controls haven't worked well in the past. Slightly more than half of the respondents said some sort of restriction on the use of credit cards would help, as would putting a ceiling on housing prices.

A pronounced protectionist sentiment also emerged from the survey. Fifty-seven percent said adding a tax to imported goods to bring them into line with American-made products would help control prices. On the other hand, more than 60% rejected limiting the availability of mortgages as a way to control housing prices, and nearly 90% turned down a tax increase as a way of reducing total demand for goods.

To the extent that Americans perceive government spending to be a cause of inflation, they want it cut back. Despite the opposition of most political and economic leaders, they favor by a ratio of 50 to 31 the controversial idea of a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget. And if it turned out that peacemaking efforts abroad required increased taxes, half the respondents would rather have that part of the budget cut. As for their personal spending, 63% said they would accept a pay freeze if they could have stable prices rather than continued inflation.

As pervasive as is the concern about prices, the prospect of high unemployment seems no less frightening. By 38% to 29%, respondents said they would rather deal with high inflation than high joblessness. At the same time, only 6% said they felt loss of jobs was a currently urgent issue and only 2% volunteered that a recession was of immediate concern.

When asked to choose between conflicting energy policies, 53% said they would prefer gasoline rationing to an increase of 500 per gal. in the price of gas. Some 75% said that increasing all oil prices, as President Carter plans, would not help discourage excessive use. Nearly two-thirds felt that closing gasoline stations would do nothing to limit the consumption of gasoline.

On the question of nuclear power, Americans were predictably undecided. With the Three Mile Island nuclear plant accident still fresh in their minds, 42% said the dangers of a nuclear accident concerned them a lot. Yet when confronted with the choice of building more nuclear power plants "even in neighborhoods such as your own" or facing a serious energy shortage, more than half said they would prefer building more plants.

Beyond the choices and concerns about the national economy lies a more difficult and perhaps more damaging problem: the corrosive effects that continued inflation have on the political and psychological atmosphere. Throughout the country, people are finding that despite rising incomes their economic situation is either stagnating or worsening, leading to feelings of having been cheated. Observes Dubuque University Sociologist Wayne Youngquist: "Inflation takes all the old rules and invalidates them. It creates an unstable, speculative, spendthrift mentality and causes the erosion of social values. As a result, the electorate is extremely volatile. Voters have become like unguided missiles as they try to figure out how to have an effect."

According to the Yankelovich survey 53% of the people questioned agreed fully with the statement: "People who work hard and live by the rules are not getting a fair deal these days." More than a third agreed that "people like yourself are powerless to change things in the country."

Plainly, this resentment is not unguided. It is targeted directly on Jimmy Carter. Most striking is the decline in the trust the President inspires in the country, a political quality that has been the hallmark both of his candidacy and his two years in office. Less than a majority of those polled said they think Carter is a leader they can trust. Even among Democrats, only 48% gave the President their undiminished loyalty, and 50% or more in each section of the country said they had doubts and reservations about his trustworthiness.

In the first few months of his presidency Carter impressed many people with his performance; 82% now say their impressions of Carter have either remained the same or worsened. More than one-third of those who voted for him in 1976 say their opinion of Carter has declined since his election.

The prime factor behind this decline is his handling of the economy. Forty-two percent gave his economic policies as the reason for lowering their opinions of the President. Thirty-one percent blamed his overall lack of leadership and 23% listed his management of the energy situation. Asked specifically if they had a lot of confidence in the President's handling of the economy, a mere 8% said yes, compared with 33% when he took office.

The results on the energy question were a disappointment for the President as well. Only 14% expressed a lot of confidence on that score, while 41% said they had no real confidence at all.

The post-Camp David surge in the President's popularity has not been repeated after his triumph in the Middle East. While half of the sample reported some confidence in Carter diplomacy, only 27% said they had a lot of confidence, and slightly less than a quarter said they had no confidence at all. Any hope the President has of bolstering his flagging popularity with new foreign policy triumphs, like the impending SALT II agreement, thus seems rather empty.

The SALT treaty itself still does not command support from a majority of the country, but the trend since last June seems to be toward greater acceptance. Forty-one percent now say the treaty should be signed, compared with only 32% nearly a year ago, while the percentage of those who feel the treaty is too risky has declined in the ten months from 56% to 48%. Some 37% still feel that the Soviet Union would be the chief beneficiary of the treaty.

As the President's popularity has declined, the mood of pessimism in the country has increased, creating ominous signals both for a second Carter term and for inflation itself. Fifty-one percent now believe that with Carter in the White House inflation will get worse, as compared with less than 10% who think that he will be able to stop inflation. That kind of lack of expectations is self-fulfilling; economists say that people alter their life-styles in anticipation of ever higher prices. This pessimistic mood extends beyond the Carter presidency. Not more than 17% feel that any other President, Republican or Democrat, will be able to stop the inflationary spiral.

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