On the Brink of Peace

The Patriotic Front agrees to a ceasefire, but hazards remain

"I don't think anybody will turn back I now," said Britain's jubilant Foreign Secretary, Lord Carrington. After 86 days of stop-and-go negotiations at the London Peace Conference, Patriotic Front Co-Leaders Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe agreed to a cease-fire that should end the seven-year-old civil war in the breakaway British colony. Although some important details remain to be worked out, the principal issues barring the way to peace for Zimbabwe Rhodesia were resolved; agreement on a new constitution and arrangements for the transition to elections had been reached in earlier talks at Lancaster House.

The last major hurdle in the quest for a truce was achieved by a formula that made subtle concessions to both sides without spelling them out in detail. It was cobbled together in a brilliant, behind-the-scenes piece of diplomacy by Commonwealth Secretary-General Shridath Ramphal and a group of British Foreign Office aides. At a three-hour meeting Tuesday night with Nkomo and Mugabe, Ramphal and the guerrilla chiefs examined each line of the deadlocked cease-fire proposals until a reasonable formula was found. Then they called Tanzania's President Julius Nyerere, who is chairman of the Presidents of the so-called Frontline States.* Ramphal convinced hun that the Front would not be put at a disadvantage by the revised ceasefire formula.

Three key issues had emerged as the sticking points for the Front:

Equality of Treatment. The Carrington cease-fire plan specified 15 "assembly points" inside Zimbabwe Rhodesia for the guerrilla forces when a cease-fire begins. But no comparable provision was made for Salisbury's troops, who were merely to remain at their bases. The matter was resolved when Carrington agreed that the question of assembly points for the guerrillas would be removed from the principles governing the cease-fire and transferred to formal discussions on how the agreement will be carried out.

Rhodesian Air Force. The Patriotic Front demanded that Rhodesian fighter and bomber aircraft be grounded from the first day of the ceasefire. Carrington assured them that the air force would be monitored effectively by the 1,200 Commonwealth troops who will supervise the cease-fire--about four times as many as the British first envisaged. The U.S. agreed to provide transport aircraft to fly military equipment needed by the supervising forces. (Last week, by an overwhelming 90-to-0 vote, the Senate approved a compromise bill that authorized the Administration to lift economic sanctions against Zimbabwe Rhodesia, which have been in effect since 1966, by the earlier of two dates: either Jan. 31 or when a new British governor arrives in Salisbury.)

South African Troops. An estimated 1,600 South African troops, equipped with 16 to 18 Puma helicopters and light howitzers, are serving with Salisbury's forces. Carrington assured the Patriotic Front that "there will be no external involvement in Rhodesia" after the British governor arrives. "This position," he added, "has been made clear to all the governments concerned, including South Africa." Carrington privately assured the Patriotic Front leaders that he had warned Pretoria's Foreign Minister Roelof ("Pik") Botha that the moment the British governor arrived in Salisbury, all South African troops and paramilitary forces were to leave immediately. The Pretoria government promised Carrington that the troops would be pulled out.

Allowing himself a rare smile, Mugabe delivered the Patriotic Front's acceptance of the Carrington plan. "We now feel the British proposals for a cease-fire provide the basis for agreement, and for moving on quickly to settle the details of the implementation," he said. There followed an exchange of compliments all round. The Salisbury delegation smiled across at the guerrilla leaders, and Deputy Prime Minister Silas Mundawarara said: "It gives me much pleasure to compliment our Patriotic Front brothers." Carrington, in best deadpan humor, said that he was delighted the conference was ending with Zimbabwe Rhodesians calling each other brothers and joked: "No one calls me brother."

Nonetheless, as a spokesman for Mugabe put it: "There are still hazards ahead. The safety of our forces is at stake." In Salisbury there was talk about the prospect of civil war, since nearly every major political leader in the country commands a well-armed private militia. Said one lawyer in the capital: "Whoever loses the election will turn to his military supporters and say: 'The elections were rigged. Carry on fighting, boys.' " The Mugabe and Nkomo armies together number about 40,000 trained guerrillas. Salisbury has 12,000 men in the army and air force, backed by 40,000 reservists. Other licensed arms holders in the country, mostly white Rhodesians, number 160,000.

Carrington is determined not to lose the momentum for peace. Hence he decided to dispatch the entire British team to Salisbury immediately. It includes the new governor, Lord Soames, Conservative leader in the House of Lords and Winston Churchill's son-in-law; his deputy, Sir Antony Duff, a top African expert; and the military commander, Major General John Ackland. As soon as a date for the cease-fire is fixed, Lord Soames will hoist the Union Jack for perhaps the shortest period in British history. It could be struck as early as next March, by which time elections should have been held and a new majority-rule government formed and installed. With that, Rhodesia will become the new independent nation of Zimbabwe. -

*The others: Angola, Botswana, Mozambique and Zambia.

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