Carter's Rousing Revival

Riding a wave of patriotism, the President becomes the front runner

He asked that Americans fly the flag to indicate support for the 50 U.S. hostages in Iran. Across the country last week, flags flew. He asked for letters to the hostages. From every corner of the nation, the mail poured forth. The national Christmas tree that he had refused to illumine remained dark behind the White House as a reminder of the hostages' plight. And then, in response to Tehran's renewed threats to put the hostages on trial for spying, he threatened economic sanctions and even a naval blockade to cut off the world's commerce with Iran.

This was Jimmy Carter, President, leading the U.S. in a way that, until the Iranian crisis erupted in November, the former Governor of Georgia had not managed in his three years in the White House. Through those first thousand days, Carter had stumbled and tripped, scored some victories, but lost his way many times. Under his Administration, the economy had worsened, with inflation moving to levels higher than any since the end of World War II and with the threat of a serious recession growing more real each week.

On balance, the American people had judged Carter to be inept. So inept, indeed, that Senator Edward M. Kennedy, before announcing his candidacy last month, held a 2-to-l lead over Carter as the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination. All that has now changed. Riding a wave of patriotic fervor and a degree of unanimity unseen in this country since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, Jimmy Carter has suddenly become, according to the latest polls, the solid choice to be renominated and re-elected to a second term in the White House.

According to a survey of public opinion conducted for TIME Dec. 10 through Dec. 12 by Yankelovich, Skelly and White Inc., Carter leads Kennedy 53 to 33 among Democrats and independents.* That result, obtained from telephone interviews with 1,041 registered voters, reflects one of the most dramatic political turnabouts in modern American political history. Before the Iranian crisis, which began with the embassy seizure on Nov. 4, Carter trailed Kennedy by ten points, meaning that he has surged 30 percentage points in one month. As recently as August, Kennedy led Carter by 33 percentage points, which means there has been a shift of 63 percentage points in four months. An even more ominous sign for the Kennedy candidacy is the Yankelovich finding that among Democrats, even those who call themselves liberal Democrats, Kennedy's once commanding lead has been erased.

The Carter lead over Kennedy covers all parts of the country. In Kennedy's previous stronghold, the Northeast, Carter leads 47 to 39. In the West, where Carter failed to carry a single state against Gerald Ford in 1976 and where Kennedy has been strong, Carter is ahead 49 to 35. At the same time, Jerry Brown has virtually been pushed off the board as a serious presidential candidate. Carter leads him 71 to 16 nation wide.

The revival in Carter's political standing has occurred not only because of widespread approval of his handling of the hostage crisis (two-thirds say he has managed the situation "just right"), but also because Ted Kennedy has declined sharply in the public's esteem.

Kennedy has lost popularity partly because his image as a strong leader has softened as he has mumbled and fumbled on television and on the hustings. He suffered a serious, self-inflicted wound from his outspoken criticism of the Shah of Iran while the Americans remained captive in Tehran. A whopping 74% disapproved of Kennedy's remarks being made at that time. Only 17% approved.

Asked whether their opinion of Kennedy has changed, 40% said their impressions have got worse. Sixty percent of those reporting an unfavorable change said it was because of his remarks about the Shah. Twenty-five percent cited his stands on issues, and 13% said his attacks on Carter were the cause of their altered views of the Massachusetts Senator. Kennedy's image as a strong leader, although still the best among all presidential candidates, has also declined. In August 58% said he would be a "very strong" leader. Now 41% hold that view.

In addition to falling popularity, the Kennedy campaign itself has had its share of difficulties. In New York, for example, where Kennedy was thought to be the favorite to win the primary, Carter has moved quickly to pick up the endorsements of four of the five major New York City Democratic leaders and the mayors of the state's major cities. He also has the assistance of Governor Hugh Carey's organization in raising funds. Although Kennedy picked up half a million dollars at a Manhattan fund raiser, his speech was so lackluster that many of his supporters were disappointed.

In Illinois, where Kennedy scored something of an early coup by winning Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne's endorsement, the campaign organization is still in a disorderly state. Even the mayor's aides have begun joking about the Kennedy effort. Sneered one: "It's the only campaign operation in town with an unlisted telephone number."

And in Iowa, where the organization that Kennedy is building is sound and well run, campaign aides say supporters are growing disappointed with the Senator's poor performance and with his continued inability to give a crisp and convincing reason why he is running for President. The Iowa operatives are now saying that only a superior performance in the January debate against Carter in Des Moines can help them carry the state.

Still, the very volatility of the public mood shows that Carter's lead over Kennedy is far from insurmountable. Despite the unity over Iran, the national mood remains bleak, although somewhat improved since summer. Forty-two percent of those surveyed said the state of the nation was "very bad," and 34% rated it "poor." Only 24% said the nation was in "good" shape.

Personal financial concerns were also troubling many Americans. Forty-three percent said they worried a lot about keeping up with their bills and nearly a third now report major anxiety about losing their jobs. Two-thirds said they were worried about an energy shortage.

Lack of confidence in Carter's handling of these persistent domestic concerns is undiminished. The survey found that only 15% expressed "a lot of confidence" in Carter's management of the nation's energy problem.

Indeed, Carter has been slow to use the Iran situation as a way to mobilize the country for his energy programs. But last week he was considering the imposition of a broad series of compulsory conservation measures, ranging from odd-even rationing to no-driving days to increased gasoline taxes.

Similarly, 56% said that "inflation, high prices and the economy" were the main problems the country faces, but only 10% thought Carter has done well in dealing with these concerns. Kennedy ranked twice as high as Carter in people's confidence in dealing with energy and the economy. When Iran is no longer the chief concern of the voters, Kennedy will again have an exploitable issue with which to attack Carter.

The new public support for Carter has also had a strong effect on his chances when he is compared with the leading Republican candidates. In a TIME/Yankelovich survey in August, former California Governor Ronald Reagan led President Carter by four percentage points. But now Carter has pulled into a comfortable 14-point lead over Reagan. Carter would also now swamp John Connally, 53 to 23, compared with a mere four-point advantage for Carter in August. Carter leads Howard Baker by 30 points; in August the President and the Senate minority leader were running in a dead heat.

Not only has Ted Kennedy lost ground to Carter, but his once dominating position against the three Republican candidates has vanished, although he still manages to beat all three in trial heats. Kennedy barely edges Reagan, 46 to 42, and has an eleven-point advantage over Connally, 46 to 35, and a twelve-point lead over Baker, 46 to 34.

Among Republicans, the struggle for the nomination remains virtually frozen. Ronald Reagan, now an announced candidate but one who has done only the most perfunctory campaigning, remains almost unchallenged in the Yankelovich survey. He continues to command the support of nearly a third of Republicans and independents. Gerald Ford, although he has disavowed an active quest for the nomination, continues as the second-most popular Republican, with 23%. John Connally remains third with 14%, up slightly from his October rating of 11%. Howard Baker is still fourth with 10%. Former CIA Director George Bush, touted by many as a potential threat to Reagan in next month's caucuses in Iowa, has gradually moved up from a mere 2% last April to 7% now.

Many of the Republican campaign managers whose candidates trail Reagan have grown increasingly frustrated by Carter's dominance of national attention with his management of the Iran crisis. They feel that whatever chance they have of catching Reagan is being diminished by their own inability to criticize the President and thus to draw attention to themselves. Last week staffers on one campaign even approached Republican National Chairman Bill Brock, urging him to lead the way in breaking G.O.P. silence about Carter and Iran. Brock agreed that all the party's candidates were suffering from Carter's political popularity, but shied away from leading a Republican charge at this time.

As the crisis drags on into the new year, the impact of the long stalemate over the hostages is less predictable. The political benefit Carter has gained could erode as national impatience increases. The final resolution of the crisis will determine whether Carter benefits or suffers from his handling of the situation. -

*The sampling error in the survey is plus or minus 3%.

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