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Playing the numbers game in the 1980 census

Counting Americans every ten years would seem to be a noncontroversial enterprise, but the 1980 U.S. census has become immersed in politics up to its last decimal point. A growing number of people are worried about the accuracy of the tally because so much--political power as well as the distribution of billions of dollars in federal funds--is riding on the outcome. The nose count will not begin until April, but Census Director Vincent Barabba already predicts that it will be the "toughest and most scrutinized ever. Everyone is going to be watching."

The U.S. Constitution requires a census every decade so that there will be a basis for reapportioning seats in the House of Representatives. During the past ten years, people have been migrating from the traditionally Democratic urban centers to the suburbs and rural areas, where the vote is more likely to be Republican. The Democrats are pressing the Census Bureau to make sure that all big-city residents are counted. Republicans are urging the bureau to see that people are not overlooked down on the farm. If the Census Bureau's predictions check out, New York will decline in population by only 2.7%, but lose four of its 39 House seats. Meanwhile, California, Texas and Florida will each gain two.

The second concern about the census arises because federal funds are distributed according to population. Minority groups argue that they have not been receiving their fair share because they were undercounted in the last census. The bureau estimates that its survey missed 5.3 million people, or 2.5% of the population. Most of those overlooked in the census live in metropolitan areas; the rate for missing blacks was 7.7%, compared with 1.9% for whites. Every person left out of the final count can cost a state as much as $200 a year in federal grants.

This year the bureau will take special pains to get the count as accurate as possible. The census will cost about $1 billion, compared with the $221.6 million spent in 1970. Part of the rise is due to inflation and part to the need to cover a larger population, but millions will be spent on projects like hiring community workers who are at home in crowded urban areas, where the count has been difficult to conduct. More extensive questionnaires will be used this year, and for the first time they will be available in Spanish. More money will be spent on advertising, including pleas for cooperation that will appear on calendars and restaurant place mats. The slogan: "We're counting on you. Answer the census."

Every known household--defined as a single person, a family, or people living together as a unit--will receive a questionnaire by mail. About 90% will be asked to send back their completed forms; the remaining 10%, living for the most part in remote rural areas where returns in the past have been poor, will be instructed to keep their forms until they are picked up by a census taker.

If a household does not mail back a questionnaire, it will be sought out by one of the census takers, called enumerators. Judging from the past, they may have trouble. The counters often run into suspicious or hostile people who slam the door in their faces or even threaten them physically. Discouraged enumerators may then indulge in what is called curbstoning, making up phony statistics. This year the enumerators will face additional problems. Since more married women are working (50%, compared with 40% in 1970), fewer will be home during the day to provide the census taker with information.

The hardest group of all to count accurately is the illegal aliens, who have always been considered the same as citizens in computing a state's seats in the House or its federal benefits. Estimates of the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. run as high as 12 million, compared with a rough figure of 2 million in 1970. These aliens are difficult to count because they fear that any information gathered about them will be turned over to the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, which will then order them out of the country. The Census Bureau is using community groups in an effort to persuade aliens that all its records are confidential.

Some critics object to the counting of illegal aliens on the grounds that this gives an unfair advantage to states where they are most abundant: California, New York, Florida, Texas. Last month the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a nonprofit organization working to end illegal immigration, filed a lawsuit charging that including illegal aliens in the census violates the U.S. Supreme Court's one-man, one-vote decision.

Jimmy Carter has not encouraged confidence in the census. The Civil Service Reform Act of 1978, which was passed with his active support, extended the merit system for the selection of Government workers. But Carter is allowing local Democratic organizations to recommend a large number of the 275,000 census takers. "We will ask Democratic politicians for lists of recruits, but not Republicans," says Barabba, who happens to be a Republican. Appointed originally by President Richard Nixon, he served as census director from 1973 to 1976, and was renamed to the job last June. Barabba defends the 1980 hiring process on the grounds that the jobs have always been handled on a patronage basis. He argues that it would be too cumbersome to screen all employees through civil service.

G.O.P. National Chairman Bill Brock calls the patronage approach "a blatant political effort to rig the count." Says he: "Allowing the political machine in Chicago to count the people in underpopulated districts is issuing a license to steal." Replies Barabba: "If there is an organized effort to rig the totals, our checking procedure will catch it." Perhaps. But, say Republicans, don't count on it.

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