An Army That Needs Some Help

Old trucks, new missiles, tough soldiers and plenty of bravado " This is peanuts," scoffed Pakistan's President, General Mohammed Zia ul-Haq. That was his ungracious comment on the report that the U.S. was set to give him $400 million over the next two years to shore up Pakistan's defenses against the potential threat posed by 80,000 Soviet troops in neighboring Afghanistan. Zia's outburst of piqued surprise was a bit unfair since the offer had already been discussed with his chief foreign affairs adviser. In fact, the U.S. was far from being stingy; it was acting out of vital concern for the fate of Pakistan. Seeking to reassure Zia that more support would be forthcoming, Washington pressed forward with quiet negotiations with its Western allies, some friendly OPEC nations and China to establish an informal "consortium" that would supply the Islamabad government with additional military and economic assistance.

How good would Pakistan's forces be against a Soviet incursion? Zia's answer was bold and unqualified. "As far as the Pakistan army is concerned," he told reporters last week, "it is capable of defending our borders against any aggression." That bravado is not necessarily shared by Pakistani military commanders stationed along the country's 800-mile frontier with Afghanistan. An entirely different assessment was given visiting British Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington last week by Lieut. General Fazal e-Haq, commander of Pakistan's Northwest Frontier. Pointing across the legendary Khyber Pass toward Kabul, Fazal said that the occupying Soviet armies would be able to strike across the border "with impunity."

Fazal showed Carrington and accompanying foreign correspondents a British-built defense network of underground bunkers, bridges and tank traps that are sorely in need of repair. Reason: Pakistan has concentrated four-fifths of its armed forces along the eastern border shared with its historic enemy, India. Fazal currently commands only two infantry divisions, plus the famed Khyber Rifles formed by the British a century ago. Of the 40,000 men under Fazal's command, 18,000 are paramilitary troops equipped only with rifles.

Fazal's divisions are armed with such obsolete equipment as 2 1/2-ton American trucks, reconditioned after the Korean War. Roads in the area are not wide enough for modern tanks, and radar is virtually nonexistent along the western frontier. Nonetheless, Fazal estimated that the border could be made defensible within ten months by widening roads, upgrading communications and improving local railroads. The cost: $1 billion.

An additional $1 billion, however, might be needed for new weapons and equipment to upgrade the Pakistani armed forces. U.S. military experts believe that Pakistan's 430,000 troops are highly professional, tough, disciplined fighters. Says one top Washington analyst: "On an individual basis, the Pakistani soldiers are as good as any in the world. In terms of resisting small units of Soviets coming across a rough border with which the Pakistanis are entirely familiar, I think they'd give an extremely good account of themselves."

Analysts concede, however, that morale is sagging in Pakistan's volunteer army, many of whose recruits are illiterate 16-and 17-year-old boys from rural backgrounds. Other observers note that the quality of noncommissioned officers is below par because of the inordinate time needed to educate them. In addition, the regular officer corps is below strength because the military regime installed by Zia in 1977 has drawn many top-ranking officers into the civil administration of the country.

On a one-day visit to Washington two weeks ago, Pakistan's senior foreign affairs adviser, Agha Shahi, asked the U.S. for antitank missiles, air defense missiles, combat tanks, field artillery for its ground forces and transport aircraft for its air force. This new equipment is intended to supplement the 60 French Mirage III and Mirage 5 fighters, the 700 Chinese T-59 tanks and the assorted British, Soviet, Swedish and Argentine weapons. Islamabad purchased them--in large part with Saudi Arabian money--after Washington began limiting arms aid to Pakistan in 1965 because American weapons had been used by both sides in the India-Pakistan war that year.

The U.S. is likely to meet many of Islamabad's specific requests. It will not, however, provide Pakistan with attack aircraft and other offensive weapons that are likely to cause alarm in New Delhi. The new government of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has been extremely wary of American arms sales to Islamabad because of fear that once again Pakistan's weapons might be turned on India.

Pakistan will also need aid to cope with the unending tide of refugees crossing the mountain passes from Afghanistan. There are now about 450,000 refugees in the Northwest Frontier province alone, many of whom are being sheltered by their tribal cousins in the area, but the countrywide total is expected to reach 1 million by April. This huge population of uprooted peoples represents a threat both to the Soviets and to Zia. The bitterly anti-Communist refugees have no love for the new regime in Kabul; the Pushtun tribesmen in the province have long chafed under Islamabad's callous rule.

If the Soviets were to launch a military attack, chances are that it would be not in the Northwest Frontier but along the 300-mile stretch of border that cuts through lands occupied by the rebellious Baluch peoples, who live astride Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Baluchis, who have long yearned for autonomy, might welcome a Soviet-inspired Afghan invading force that would promise to honor the Baluchis' "legitimate aspirations" --as Afghanistan's new President, Babrak Karmal, has vowed to do. A friendly regime in a breakaway Baluchistan would give the Soviets an outlet to the Arabian Sea at the port of Gwadar and, from there, access to the Persian Gulf. "If I were a Russian," General Fazal told Carrington, "I would take the soft underbelly of Pakistan in Baluchistan and head straight for the warm waters of the Persian Gulf."

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