Grim Problems for the "Smiler"

ZIMBABWE RHODESIA

Violence and boycott threats mar the election campaign

His affable, jowly countenance has earned him the nickname "Smiler" Soames among Rhodesians. But the lordly Governor of Britain's last African colony has little cause for buoyancy these days. He bears responsibility for running "free and fair" elections to Zimbabwe Rhodesia's new, 100-member House of Assembly; yet many of the parties have threatened to withdraw from the balloting. He also has to hold together a shaky cease-fire amid continuing violence.

One of Lord Soames' main headaches last week was what to do about Robert Mugabe, leader of the ZANU wing of the former Patriotic Front guerrilla alliance. Though Mugabe was anxious to return from Mozambique to launch his electoral campaign, Soames made it clear that he would not be welcome in Salisbury until he released the 71 ZANU dissidents who have been held in Mozambique prisons for more than two years. Insisting that the prisoners were the responsibility of the Mozambicans, Mugabe angrily threatened to boycott the elections. At week's end, however, he grudgingly agreed to their release under pressure from Mozambique President Samora Machel, and scheduled a triumphant return to Rhodesia on Sunday.

Another problem confronting Soames was the fragility of the six-week-old ceasefire. Though some 21,600 guerrillas have reported to 14 assembly points, the truce is marred almost daily by sporadic clashes and acts of banditry and lawlessness. British authorities attribute most of the violations to ZANU guerrillas loyal to Mugabe, several thousands of whom remain at large or wander in and out of the camps at will. The 1,200 Commonwealth troops monitoring the cease-fire seem powerless to stop them.

Opponents of Salisbury's former Prime Minister, Bishop Abel Muzorewa are equally distressed by the activities of his heavily armed "auxiliaries," numbering between 16,000 and 20,000 according to various estimates. Known as Pfumo Re-vanhu (spear of the people), this force was recruited some 18 months ago from among "reformed" guerrillas. In their o ten ruthless efforts to regain rural areas from Patriotic Front control, the auxiliaries have won a reputation as bullies dedicated to furthering Muzorewa's political fortunes by violence and intimidation.

Leaders of the Rhodesian security forces, who technically retain authority over the auxiliaries, defend them as a disciplined and apolitical force for "national reconstruction." But Muzorewa's rivals argue that they represent a threat to free and fair elections. One irate black leader, the Rev. Ndabaningi Sithole, last week called on the other opposition parties to join him in boycotting the election unless the Governor asserted more control over the auxiliaries. Said he: "We have law-protected lawlessness, and Lord Soames doesn't appear to have the imagination or the capacity to deal with the situation."

The campaign officially got under way last week in the ominous shadow of political violence; unknown gunmen shot and killed Oliver Saunyama, a top official in Sithole's party, in front of his suburban Salisbury home. Sithole blamed Mugabe's hit men for the murder and predicted the beginning of "an era of political assassinations." That fear was apparently shared by Muzorewa and Nationalist Leader Joshua Nkomo; they have ordered bulletproof Mercedes-Benz sedans for their campaign appearances and travel under heavy security guard. One noteworthy fact about the violence is that all the victims are black; not one white-owned farm has been attacked since the ceasefire.

Forebodings of danger have not cramped Nkomo's electioneering style While his ally turned rival Mugabe was sulking in Mozambique, Nkomo held huge rallies for blacks in Salisbury and Bulawayo under the Patriotic Front banner, which he has cleverly appropriated to his own party. He also wooed groups of white businessmen, industrialists and farmers. Nkomo's basic campaign message: reconciliation, political moderation and racial harmony. In contrast to much of his previous rhetoric from exile in Zambia, his official platform makes no mention of socialism or large-scale nationalizations.

Nkomo's fence-mending efforts are hampered by a deep-seated white bitterness over the role of his guerrilla forces in downing two civilian Air Rhodesia Viscounts in September 1978 and February 1979. But Nkomo feels sure that the whites will eventually "forgive and forget." He may be right. A growing number of whites, led by former Prime Minister Ian Smith, believe that Nkomo is the only black leader with the charisma and political clout to pull the shattered pieces of Rhodesia together again. Said one white businessman who met him in Salisbury last week: "Politically speaking, Joshua makes the Bishop look like a choirboy."

Although Nkomo is unlikely to win more than 20 of the 80 black parliamentary seats, he seems to be gaining strength as an election broker. Eager to distance himself from Mugabe's Marxist line, Nkomo seems increasingly open to an accommodation with more moderate small-party leaders, such as Sithole and James Chikerema. He could also form a postelection coalition with Muzorewa, who stands to win about 25 seats in the House but can no longer count on the undivided support of the 20-man white bloc. Mugabe, because of his support within the predominant Shona tribes, might win from 30 to 40 seats, but his leftist policies could make it difficult for him to form an effective coalition. If totally excluded from power, however, Mugabe's party could become an embittered and volatile opposition.

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