Numbers Game

Two shadowy pols are exposed

While all three Democratic presidential candidates were scrambling to declare victory in the Maine caucuses last week, editorials in the New York Times and the Washington Post exposed the latest machinations of two seasoned politicians of whom little is seen but much is heard. The Post's man was the fourth candidate in the Maine contest, and his name is Expected. Observed the Post: "In Maine he finished better than the President (who 'didn't do as well as Expected') but somewhat worse than Senator Kennedy (who 'did better than Expected')." As the Times editorialized, the contest saw the presence of "that ghostly political personage, Better Than Expected," or B.T.E. In a race that ended with Carter winning 43.6% of the vote, Kennedy 40.2% and Brown 13.8%, the Times wondered: How can admirers explain their candidate's finish? For Carter fans, "To win by any margin means he did Better Than Expected." And for Kennedy adherents, "To trail by only a few points" means he did Better Than Expected. As for Brown's supporters, with his small tally, "He may not have qualified for a single delegate ... but he did three times Better Than Expected."

Who set these expectations for the Maine contest? As usual, the deed was done by members of the press, but only after they spoke with a small but powerful group that might as well be called the Knowledgeable Observers, or K.O.s. After Carter beat Kennedy in Iowa by 27 points, the K.O.s immediately pronounced the Massachusetts Senator as hurt badly. The Bangor, Me., News went one step further and published a poll of the state's Democrats two days before the caucuses showing Carter leading Kennedy 52% to 33%. Expectations plummeted. By caucus day it was predicted that Kennedy would be routed by Carter. When he lost by "only" 3.4 points, it was reported as a sort of victory.

The expectations game as played by the press is hardly new: in 1968, long-shot Eugene McCarthy "beat" President Lyndon Johnson by rolling up 42% of the New Hampshire primary vote to Johnson's mere 49.5%. Four years later, George McGovern "beat" the heavy favorite, Edmund Muskie, in the same state by polling a decisive 37% to Muskie's meager 46%. " 'Unexpected' is one of the words reporters use to cover their mistakes," says Political Columnist Richard Reeves. "Did the voters do something they didn't expect to do on Election Day? Of course not." Adds NBC's David Brinkley: "In the end, a candidate either gets votes or doesn't. All the expecting in the world can't change that."

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