Kennedy: "We're in It to Stay"

He plugs away toward Illinois, while Carter surveys his roses

After his first drubbing by Jimmy Carter, in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, Ted Kennedy ordered a speechwriter to draft a statement of withdrawal from the presidential race. But the Senator soon had second thoughts and filed the speech away. Since then he has been beaten three more times--in Maine, Minnesota and, most embarrassingly, in his own backyard of New Hampshire. Yet because he got more New Hampshire votes than Carter did in 1976.* Kennedy thrust out a fist and made a peculiar boast: "Tonight we are claiming victory." And he later added, "We're in it to stay."

Some victory. The final tally showed that Carter, who never left the White House, won 49% of the votes, vs. Kennedy's 38%. No matter how good a face Kennedy put on the outcome, it was still a bitter blow. Last September, early in the draft-Teddy boom, a Boston Globe poll showed Kennedy leading Carter in New Hampshire by better than 2 to 1. But when the Senator became an announced candidate, he plummeted in New Hampshire as elsewhere in the country. Voters questioned his stands on issues, wondered over his inept campaigning and brought up old doubts about Chappaquiddick. On the weekend before primary day, Kennedy threw everything and everyone into the campaign, including 1,500 volunteers who rang countless doorbells and phones to summon supporters to the polls. He managed only to narrow the margin to 11%, enough for him to keep on campaigning, but still an embarrassing defeat by most standards.

Wailed Dudley Dudley, who headed the original Kennedy write-in campaign in New Hampshire: "It was the flag. People kept saying that in a time of crisis, they had to support the President." Kennedy carried no major segment of New Hampshire Democrats, except the young. He lost the blue-collar vote, which he considered one of his basic constituencies. He lost the most heavily Catholic precincts, in part because he favors federal financing of abortion for poor women when medically necessary. He lost all of New Hampshire's largest cities except Dover and Portsmouth, where he was in agreement with the local opposition to construction of the nearby Seabrook nuclear power plant. And worse prospects lie ahead. After this week's primary in his home state of Massachusetts, Kennedy faces three contests on March 11 in Carter's Southern stronghold: Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Kennedy plans only token appearances in those states, so that he can concentrate on Illinois, which on March 18 will have the first primary in an industrial state outside the two candidates' native regions.

Kennedy's only real hope at this point is a political miracle--that Carter will make a major mistake or that the news will suddenly change. If the American hostages were released in Tehran and Soviet-occupied Afghanistan faded as an issue, Carter might suddenly seem very vulnerable on domestic issues, such as inflation and energy, and Kennedy's political fortunes could soar. It is no wonder that when some of the Senator's aides learned that the inflation rate had jumped 1.4% in January, they actually cheered. Kennedy believes that the economic issue has already taken hold, and will work to his benefit despite his image as a big-spending liberal. Said he of this issue: "It's sharpened. It's intensified. The party that addresses it is the one that's going to be successful."

But even if voters do switch their attention from the crises overseas to inflation at home, Kennedy will still be up against his most enduring political problem: voters' doubts about his character. Because of them, he switched his broadcast spots in the last days of the New Hampshire campaign from criticism of Carter to character defenses by his mother Rose and sister-in-law Ethel. Rose Kennedy said her son was devoted to his family and had been "a tower of strength on the tragic occasions of the deaths of my three older sons." Ethel Kennedy described how he has served as surrogate father to her eleven children. Nonetheless, surveys showed that many voters opposed Kennedy mostly because of questions about his personal life and integrity; because of similar doubts, 24% of the Democrats across the country would not vote for him under any circumstances, according to a New York Times-CBS poll.

Kennedy got an ugly reminder of this hostility last week during a brief side trip to Birmingham, Ala. Hecklers there repeatedly interrupted his speech, jeering "You're a murderer" and waved signs that asked HOW CAN YOU RESCUE THE COUNTRY WHEN YOU COULDN'T RESCUE MARY JO? When Kennedy said that he favored handgun registration in part because "my family has been touched by violence," the hecklers cheered and applauded.

In Illinois, Kennedy now lags far behind Carter, by 13% to 66% according to a poll made public last week by the Chicago Sun-Times and WMAQ-TV. Kennedy has the backing of combative Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne. But elsewhere in Illinois, most Democratic pros are working for Carter. In downstate Morgan County, for example, when Democratic Chairman Leonard Kramp, a Kennedy fan, was stripped of control over hiring local census workers, he was told by Regional Census Director Manker Harris: "You're a nonperson. You decided to back the wrong man for President. You understand politics, and this is politics."

In Washington last week, Carter was busily looking presidential. He lunched at the White House with U.S. Olympic athletes, calling them "modern-day American heroes." Exclaimed Carter: "The U.S. hockey team! Their victory was one of the most breathtaking upsets, not only in Olympic history but in the entire history of sports." He ringingly renewed his support of Israel at a conference of the United Jewish Appeal, saying: "We will continue to provide sufficient aid to Israel to enable it to defend itself against any possible adversary." He dined with 38 Governors in the East Room, reminding them that he is the first former Governor since Franklin Roosevelt to reach the presidency. The Rose Garden strategy is working just fine, and Carter has no intention of changing it.

The afternoon after his triumph in New Hampshire, the President changed into blue shorts and a blue Olympic jacket with USA across the back in red letters. Then, all alone, he chugged steadily round and round the Rose Garden, his breath visible in the chilly air.

* That year, Carter won with 28% of the vote, followed by Morris Udall (23%), Birch Bayh (15%), Fred Harris (11%), Sargent Shriver (8%), Hubert Humphrey (6%) and Henry Jackson (2%).

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