"J.B.A., J.B.A., J.B.A.!"

John Anderson: there is something independent about him

Not only had he just lost his home state's primary but his second-place finish was not even the squeaker that many had predicted. Nevertheless, the air of moral victory filled the Chicago hotel ballroom when Representative John B. Anderson spoke to a wildly enthusiastic crowd of 1,800 believers after last week's Illinois primary. "Politics means more than just a game of winning and losing," preached the white-haired candidate. "It is instead a chance for an honest effort to chart a new course for the nation." Cheers welled up, and chants of "J.B.A., J.B.A., J.B.A.!" "The old ideas, the old politics, simply will not do," declaimed Anderson. More cheers, more chants. Anderson closed by leading the crowd in a rendition of the fight song of the University of Wisconsin, where he is campaigning this week in hopes of winning that state's April 1 primary. The words sounded especially stirring: "On, Wisconsin! On, Wisconsin! Plunge right through that line!"

Aside from the musical finish, it was a standard performance--moralistic, idealistic, enthusiastic, and always self-assured --by this year's most uncommon candidate, the liberal Republican maverick who started his campaign last June as John Who?, then nearly won the primaries in Massachusetts and Vermont and now enjoys the enthusiastic support of a ragtag but sizable collection of independent voters, disenchanted Democrats and even a few like-minded Republicans.

But, what Anderson believes in --among other things, SALT II, gun control, high gasoline taxes and the ERA--is not what most Republicans believe in. Anderson Campaign Manager Michael MacLeod insists that his candidate is pursuing a primary campaign strategy that will send him to the July convention "with between 800 and 900" of the 998 delegates needed to win the nomination. Once in Detroit, according to this plan, Anderson will be able to woo enough other delegates to win on the first ballot. But this scenario combines so many unlikely events, including a victory in the June 3 winner-take-all primary in Reagan's home state of California, that the strategy is not considered realistic by anyone not in the Anderson camp.

Instead, Anderson's popularity outside his own party has given rise to speculation that he might try to launch an independent or third-party candidacy. Up until last week, Anderson declined to rule out such a bid, and finally did so only after his party loyalty was criticized by Reagan. But if Anderson is thwarted by the G.O.P., he could once again be tempted by the notion of an independent candidacy. Says a White House aide: "He's one of those terribly fervent believers. He's got the mission now, and he won't let go."

If so, he faces a horrendous obstacle course. In order to get on the ballot in all 50 states, Anderson would have to submit a total of about 685,000 valid signatures to the individual states, ranging from 25 in Tennessee to 101,000 in California.

Though the deadlines for filing petitions have already passed in two states--Ohio and Maryland--most fall between late June and early September. Even if Anderson waited until just after the Republican Convention, July 14 to 17, to launch his candidacy, he would still be eligible to get on the ballot in 33 states and the District of Columbia, representing a total of 344 electoral votes (270 are needed for election).

Financing an independent or third-party candidacy could prove just as formidable a task. The Democratic and Republican candidates will each receive $29.5 million in federal campaign funds, but Anderson would not be eligible for any such funding. Yet while trying to raise money on his own, he would still be required to observe the limits on individual ($1,000) and committee ($5,000) donations. If he eventually got at least 5% of the popular vote, he might be eligible for a partial reimbursement from federal funds.

Though the history of third-party and independent presidential bids in the U.S. is a long one, it holds little hope of victory. From Teddy Roosevelt and his Bull Moose Party in 1912 to George Wallace and his American Independent Party in 1968 to Independent Candidate Eugene McCarthy in 1976, all such candidacies have been rejected by the voters. Indeed, since 1860, only two urban states in one presidential election (Pennsylvania and Michigan in 1912 for Roosevelt) have cast their electoral votes for anyone other than the two major-party candidates.

However, third-party and independent candidates sometimes attract enough support to influence a presidential election. Roosevelt took so many votes away from Republican William Howard Taft in 1912 that Democrat Woodrow Wilson won the election. If Anderson did decide to mount such a candidacy, a strange scenario might unfold. In a Carter-Reagan contest, Anderson presumably would siphon away more votes from the President than from Reagan. On the other hand, if Anderson attracted so many votes that no candidate received a majority of the electoral votes and the election was thrown into the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, Carter would certainly have the edge. In such an election, each state delegation casts one vote, and since most delegations can be expected to vote along party lines, Carter would win.

Perhaps the prospect of such a scenario is what makes Anderson deny any plans for an independent race. Instead, he claims, he will "peel Reagan's fingers away from the nomination."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.