And Reagan Catches Carter

So says a TIME poll, but Americans are unhappy with the pair

Only three months ago, Jimmy Carter was riding high in public esteem. Largely because of crises overseas, Americans had rallied around the President, and he led Ronald Reagan in support among voters by 2 to 1. Since then, millions of Americans have changed their minds. About 60% of the electorate now think that Carter has been too soft in dealing with Iran and the Soviet Union. Public confidence in his handling of the economy has also slipped, and few voters expect his most recent economic program to be effective in curbing inflation. Now he runs neck and neck with Reagan as the voters' choice for their next President.

This striking reversal of public opinion was uncovered in two surveys conducted for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly & White. The first poll was taken March 19 and 20, the second on March 29 and 30, thus bracketing President Carter's upset losses in the New York and Connecticut primaries.* In the second survey, 44% of those questioned preferred Reagan for President, 43% Carter, and 13% were undecided.

American morale and confidence in the future have plummeted to the lowest point since Yankelovich began charting these elements in 1974. The number of people who think that the U.S. is in serious trouble has swelled to 81%, from 74% of those interviewed in January. At the same time, Carter's image as a strong leader has diminished sharply. A full 70% of the voters think that it is time for a change in the Oval Office.

Of all Carter's rivals, Reagan is benefiting most from the President's loss of popularity. As indicated by Senator Edward Kennedy's defeats last week in the Kansas and Wisconsin primaries, few Democrats and independents look on him as an alternative to Carter. Kennedy's acceptability as a candidate has improved to 41% in the latest poll, up from 33% in the previous week. But the Senator still lags behind Carter in important qualities such as trust, and he would be clobbered in a race against Reagan: by a margin of 22 points in the late March survey, 53% to 31%. Chappaquiddick remains one major reason. It seems to be hurting Kennedy more than it did last winter. Fully 35% of the voters now say that they are unwilling to set aside the accident and judge Kennedy on other issues, up from 29% who felt this way in January.

The latest surveys provide further evidence that George Bush's campaign has stalled. His image as a strong leader has evaporated, and only 17% of the Republicans and independents interviewed want him as their nominee, down from 35% in January. Nor is there a groundswell for Republican Maverick John Anderson. His support is strongest among voters under 35 and among those with incomes of more than $25,000. But only 32% of the people surveyed would like him to run as an independent candidate if, as now seems certain, he cannot wrest the Republican nomination from Reagan; 48% would not. And if he were to run as an independent, the poll indicates that he would finish third in the general elections, with 20% of the vote. The rest would be divided almost evenly between Carter and Reagan.

The surveys bear out the belief of most analysts that this is a particularly cheerless presidential race, with Americans more often voting against candidates than for them. Although a majority of the people interviewed expect Carter and Reagan to be their parties' nominees this summer, 58% of them wish that there were an acceptable alternative. Furthermore, nearly half of the people who say they would vote for Carter would do so without enthusiasm, indicating that his support is even softer than the numbers demonstrate.

The polls also indicate that many voters are backing candidates irrespective of their stands on issues. Two-thirds of Tax-Cutter Reagan's supporters would oppose a tax cut if, as most economists believe, it would increase inflation. Half of them favor ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment and mandatory registration of handguns, both of which Reagan adamantly opposes. Similarly, half of Carter's supporters favor wage and price controls, which he has ruled out. And three-fourths of Kennedy's backers disagree with his opposition to registration of young men for the draft.

Reagan's strength lies mostly with older and more affluent voters and those in the South. He lags behind Carter among women, union members, blacks and other minorities. But Reagan does just as well as Carter among independents, and he has attracted the backing of one out of four Democratic voters. On the other hand, Reagan is not the first choice of a substantial number of Republicans and independents; 39% would prefer Gerald Ford. More than half of all voters think that Reagan is too conservative to attract enough independent and Democratic votes to win the presidency, and most voters are concerned about his lack of experience in foreign affairs. Moreover, Americans clearly recognize the powers of incumbency: no matter what their feelings about Reagan, 54% of the voters expect Carter to be reelected.

*The first phone survey was of 1,221 voters; the second of 917. The sampling error is plus or minus 3% for each survey; the error factor in comparing results with those of earlier surveys is plus or minus 4.5%.

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