Now It's Iran vs. Iraq

Clashes and provocations between two hotheaded Persian Gulf neighbors

Though it remained essentially a propaganda war, the quarrel between those traditional rival powers of the Middle East, Iran and Iraq, threatened last week to turn into open warfare. Following several days of mounting tensions, sporadic clashes broke out across the 700-mile Iranian-Iraqi border. Then, to the momentary alarm of capitals around the Middle East, an air battle erupted in the border area between Iraqi helicopter gunships and several Iranian Phantom jets and helicopters. There were also reports of increased military activity at Iraq's two main naval bases: Basra, on the Shatt al Arab, and Umm Qasr, at the northern tip of the Persian Gulf. Since more than 50% of the West's oil supplies originate in the gulf area, this confrontation was a new worry for the U.S. and its allies.

To confuse matters, through prisms of regional absurdity, the propaganda weapons of both regimes were busy attacking not only each other but the U.S. as well. The Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini, the stridently abrasive spiritual leader of Iran's revolution, called for international help in opposing "Zionist Iraq and the U.S." At the same time, the official newspaper of Iraq's Baathist ruling party blamed Iran's unruly actions on "the U.S., international Zionism, the Sadat regime and all the signatories to the Camp David accords."

Relations between Iraq and Iran have been deteriorating ever since the Iranian revolution brought Khomeini to power last year. One of the more curious aspects of the tensions is that Khomeini spent 13 years in exile in Iraq, preparing for the uprising that eventually ousted his enemy, the Shah. But in 1978, apparently as part of a continuing effort to improve its often tempestuous relations with the Shah, Iraq's government asked Khomeini to leave the country, thereby obliging him to spend the last four months of his exile in France. Khomeini has neither forgotten nor forgiven that insult. Last week he openly urged Iraqis to "wake up and topple this corrupt regime in your Islamic country before it is too late." With comparably strong provocation against the Iraqi government, headed by President Saddam Hussein, Iranian President Abolhassan Banisadr said that Iran welcomed the opportunity of "liberating the people of Iraq from this puppet of Zionism and U.S. imperialism."

The Iraqi government is extremely vulnerable to such pressure. In the first place, its political and military leadership is largely Sunni Muslim, while over half of Iraq's 12.8 million people are Shi'ite Muslims who share a sense of community with their religious brethren in Iran. Moreover, the Baghdad regime is Baathist, and the Baath Party, both in Iraq and Syria, favors secularism, social reconstruction and economic development. To make matters worse, Iran has reportedly been inciting the Kurds in northern Iraq to rebel against Baghdad. For their part, the Iranians suspect that the current border troubles are being aggravated by Iranian exile groups, including some rebels loyal to the Shah's last Prime Minister, Shahpour Bakhtiar, who fled Iran last year and is now living in France.

The current dispute is also territorial. Its focal point is a group of three small islands--Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb--that lie near the mouth of the Persian Gulf. These strategically placed islands have traditionally been claimed by the United Arab Emirates, but in 1971 they were seized by the Shah's forces, following Britain's military withdrawal from the gulf. Iraq has vowed to bring the islands back under Arab control, meaning Iraqi control, and on this point enjoys the support of the entire Arab world. Comments Kuwait's influential newspaper al Qabas: "As Arabs we cannot but be on the Arab side--that is, the side of Iraq."

An Iraqi attack on the islands would probably lead to outright war with Iran. In that event, it would be hard to predict the outcome of the struggle. Iraq's population is only a third the size of Iran's, and Baghdad would suffer from the fact that the three disputed islands lie 490 miles away from its border, at the opposite end of the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, Iraq's armed forces are believed to be the second most powerful in the region, after Israel's, while those of Iran have lost manpower, equipment and morale since the revolution.

Caught in the current squeeze is the Baghdad government of Saddam Hussein. It has had long and close links with the Soviet Union, but has recently been seeking ways to improve its relations with the West and particularly the U.S. The Carter Administration has considered approving the sale to Iraq of engines for gunboats that Baghdad has ordered from France and Italy. The proposed sale has drawn criticism from several Congressmen, on the grounds that Iraq has supported Palestinian guerrillas against Israel, including the terrorist group that last week attacked Israel's Kibbutz Misgav Am (see following story). Beyond that, Administration experts are said to be divided over the question, with some arguing that the U.S. should seize the opportunity to improve ties with Iraq, while others fear that such action could make Washington's relations with Tehran even worse than they already are.

The dispute between Iran and Iraq is profoundly embarrassing to the Palestine Liberation Organization, which enjoys the support of both countries. In fact, P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat visited Baghdad last November in an effort to convince Iraq not to try to seize the disputed islands; he also visited Riyadh and asked the Saudis not to support such a move. Arafat has even offered to mediate the present dispute, but so far to no avail. Last week neither side appeared to be in any hurry to cool off. Retorted Saddam Hussein in response to Iran's threats to destroy his regime: "Whoever raises a hand against Iraq will have his arm chopped off."

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