How Anderson Changes the Race

A TIME poll shows people want him to run, even if he loses

For some of the contenders, the campaign of 1980 was a multimillion-dollar enterprise that consumed as much as two years of their lives. For others it was a brief and quixotic fling. Now, with the seemingly endless set of primaries concluding next week, America's increasingly bizarre process for sorting out its presidential candidates is all but over.

President Jimmy Carter's crushing defeat of Senator Edward Kennedy in last week's Oregon primary put him within easy reach of the majority of delegates necessary for his renomination. Carter has already started planning his fall campaign, and last week began looking for ways to get the support of disappointed Kennedy backers. Declared Carter: "It is time to pull the Democratic Party together and to be generous in victory."

Republican Ronald Reagan, despite a lopsided loss to Challenger George Bush in Michigan, won easily in Oregon and was by many counts already in control of more than half of the Republican convention delegates. Said he: "There is a smell of roses in the air. We'd better start planning for the convention and beyond."

The Third Man, Independent John Anderson, continued his state-by-state efforts to petition his way onto the presidential ballot. His attorneys last week riled suit in Ohio and West Virginia, where they contend that early deadlines or unreasonable requirements deny Anderson access to the ballot. Anderson, buoyed by the fact that he has managed to get onto every state's ballot where deadlines came after his April 24 entry as an independent, said he no longer had any doubts about continuing in the race. "I'm going ahead, and my supporters can feel confident of that."

Thus Campaign 1980 heads into a new and critical phase that at the moment promises a close contest for the presidency. According to the latest national public opinion survey conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., none of the three candidates commands a large, devoted following. All three have major handicaps and vulnerabilities.

The survey, conducted among 1,221 registered voters from May 14 to 16,* showed a near standoff between Reagan and Carter, with Anderson still trailing. The percentage figures were Reagan 36, Carter 34, Anderson 23. Since TIME'S last survey, in late March, Anderson's total had risen slightly.

With Anderson not included in a presidential runoff, Reagan still leads Carter by the sliver-thin margin of two percentage points, 44 to 42. This means that today Anderson's independent candidacy draws support from both major party candidates in about equal amounts.

Although Anderson still trails both the President and Reagan in the three-way contest by a sizable margin, he has noteworthy areas of strength. Among voters identifying themselves as independents, Anderson actually leads in the race, edging out Reagan 35% to 34%. Carter trails with this group at 23%. At the same time, Reagan and Carter continue to command the support of their own party members, with Anderson making only minor inroads.

Among all voters in the Northeast, Anderson finishes a close second to Carter (30% to 32%), with Reagan third, only a point behind Anderson. This suggests that the Northeast could be pivotal in the fall election. In the West, often regarded as a Reagan stronghold, the three candidates are also grouped quite closely. Reagan leads with 35%, Anderson is second with 30%, Carter is third with 29%. Reagan appears strongest in the Midwest, and Carter still holds a narrow lead in his native South. Anderson does poorly in both regions and also has little support among blue-collar workers, older voters, blacks and other minority groups. At this stage of the campaign, however, even this support is subject to quick change. When asked how firmly committed they are to their first choice for President, only 31% of those surveyed say they are "very committed." Fully 30% say they are "not that committed." And when asked who among the three candidates would be their second choice, more voters (31%) choose Anderson than either Carter or Reagan. Among both Democrats and Republicans, about one-third name Anderson as a second choice. That puts him in a good position to pick up disaffected party loyalists who are not attracted by the other party's standardbearer.

Yet Anderson faces enormous skepticism about the success of his efforts as a presidential candidate. Asked who will actually be the next President, 52% say they expect Carter to be reelected, while only 30% predict a Reagan victory. Only 1% say Anderson will win. Asked for their reaction to the statement "You don't take Anderson's campaign too seriously, and he doesn't stand a chance of being elected," 59% say they agree. At the same time, only 23% of his supporters say they are strongly committed to him. No less than 55% continue to express unhappiness with a choice between Reagan and Carter as the nominees of the two major parties. And 64% say they agree with the proposition "You welcome John Anderson's decision to run as an independent, and you think it is good for the country." Much of the success of Reagan's candidacy will hinge on his choice of a vice-presidential running mate. The Yankelovich survey reveals that the first choice for that slot is George Bush. He is favored by 38% of all voters, while Tennessee Senator Howard Baker runs second, with 24%. Bush leads among all groups, Democrats, Republicans and Independents, and in all regions of the country, including the South.

All the men who are seeking the presidency will be confronted by a corrosive and unhappy public mood that will plague their candidacies. Four out of every five people interviewed continue to say that the country is in "deep and serious trouble." And the array of presidential candidates seems to offer little hope to the electorate. Asked which candidate personally interested or excited them, only 12% of the voters answer this revealing question by saying Reagan, 10% say Anderson, 8% say Kennedy, 6% say Bush, 6% say Carter. The final verdict on which presidential contenders excite Americans: 45% answer "none." qed

*The sampling error in the telephone survey is plus or minus 3%; the error factor for comparing current results with those of past surveys is 4.5%.

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