Monday, Jul. 14, 1980

A Stricken Begin Holds On

His government survives, and autonomy talks resume

The Knesset had convened only a few minutes earlier to debate a measure of some consequence: a motion by the small (sixmember) opposition Shai Party to dissolve parliament and hold early elections. At the horseshoe-shaped Cabinet table, Prime Minister Menachem Begin, 66, complained to colleagues that he suddenly felt warm. He mopped his brow with a handkerchief and loosened his tie. When Deputy Prime Minister Yigael Yadin asked him if he was all right, Begin weakly replied: "Get a doctor."

After leaving the chamber unobtrusively and locating the Knesset's physician, Yadin returned and led Begin to the Prime Minister's office. At first Begin insisted he wanted to stay and take part in the vote, but colleagues assured him there was no need. As he waited for the ambulance to arrive, Begin joked with friends, but then appeared to be in pain. He told Cabinet Secretary Aryeh Naor, who had been hospitalized with a heart attack only a month earlier: "You just came out. Now I'm going in."

At Jerusalem's Hadassah Hospital, where Begin shared an intensive-care room with five other heart patients, doctors confirmed that the Prime Minister had suffered a slight heart attack. They said he should remain in the hospital for two to three weeks, followed by two weeks of further recuperation at home. Despite his history of heart disease--including a major heart attack in March 1977--they predicted that he would be ready to resume his full duties after that. In fact, said ah aide, "we have been assured that he will be able to return to his usual twelve-to 18-hour days."

Begin's latest illness came at a time when the Prime Minister had seemed to be in unusually good health and spirits. The resignation of his Defense Minister, Ezer Weizman, in late May had seemed to galvanize his determination to save his tottering government. Begin's speeches had thereafter been notable for their feisty and aggressive tone. "I feel terrific," he had been telling friends. Indeed, the night before the debate he had stayed up late at a bar mitzvah party for a friend's son.

Begin's collapse seems to have spared his government the full heat of criticism, at least for the moment. During the surprisingly low-keyed debate on last week's motion, opposition speakers emphasized Israel's domestic problems: a current inflation rate of 133%, a 500% increase in the cost of living since Begin came to power in 1977, a huge foreign debt and a soaring emigration rate. But then the Knesset defeated the opposition's call for elections by a vote of 60 to 54. Neither Weizman nor former Foreign Minister Moshe Dayan supported the government; Weizman stayed away, after telling newsmen he was going fishing, and Dayan voted with the opposition.

The government had survived. But, as one Cabinet member acknowledged, "the margin is getting narrower and narrower." The next challenge will probably come this fall, after the Knesset's summer recess. If Begin cannot return to work, the most likely candidate to replace him would be his current Foreign Minister, Yitzhak Shamir, 64, a longtime ally. But the hawkish Shamir, who favors expansion of the controversial Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, might not be able to commmand enough support to form a government.

There is not much doubt that if elections were held now, Begin's Likud coalition would be decisively defeated. A Jerusalem Post poll released last week showed that the opposition Labor Party would win 63 Knesset seats to 17 for Likud. In the present 120-member Knesset, Labor has 34 seats to Likud's 43. Another poll, this one by the independent newspaper Ha'aretz, suggested the depth of Israeli concern over the autonomy talks and where the nation is heading. According to the survey, 53% of Israelis either "do not believe at all" or "do not believe very much" that the talks will eventually lead to a genuine peace agreement.

Meanwhile, open opposition to the Begin government's policy on the occupied territories has surfaced in the American Jewish community. Last week a statement was released by 56 prominent American Jews, including three former chairmen of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish

Organizations. Previously endorsed by 250 influential Israelis, the statement criticized "extremists" within the Israeli government who "distort Zionism and threaten its realization." Implicitly opposing the Begin policy of building more Jewish settlements in the West Bank, the statement also condemned those who "advance the vicious cycle of extremism and violence" and concluded that "their way endangers and isolates Israel." The statement, in the view of Brandeis University Professor Leonard Fein, was "a vote of no confidence in the present Israeli government by a significant segment of the American Jewish leadership."

These days the Israeli government seems unwilling or unable to take any significant action that would win friends or influence allies, especially where the occupied territories are concerned. Last week the Knesset law committee endorsed a backbencher's bill that would legalize the annexation of East Jerusalem, which the Israelis seized in 1967, and confirm the city as Israel's permanent capital. On the same day, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution deploring Israeli attempts to change the status of Jerusalem. The vote was 14 to 0, with the U.S. abstaining.

In Washington, negotiators for Israel, Egypt and the U.S. met for two days of discussion and announced that the autonomy talks would resume this week. In effect, the Washington meeting was a device for enabling Egypt to re-enter the negotiations, which had broken down after President Anwar Sadat learned of the Jerusalem annexation bill.

The Carter Administration was relieved to have the negotiations back on some kind of track, even though little if anything will be accomplished in the next round of talks. Israel's chief negotiator, Interior Minister Yosef Burg, denied that he had any new proposals to make. In private, Egyptian diplomats gloomily conceded that they saw no hope of progress until after the U.S. elections.

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