Going Straight for the Jugular

By John F. Stacks

Carter will attack Reagan as a dangerously militant ideologue

THE STRATEGY. So swiftly does opinion shift in the information age that the eleven-week presidential campaign can seem, as Carter's resident pollster puts it, "five lifetimes." But the game plan must always begin with a precise knowledge of who's ahead in the 50 states. Precise, until tomorrow.

Renominated last week by a party that hardly loves him, Jimmy Carter now begins the struggle to be re-elected by an electorate that regards him with only traces of confidence. Says Pat Caddell, who does the President's opinion sampling: "There is no way that I could begin to overestimate Jimmy Carter's problems politically in the country."

Nonetheless, the Carter forces last week projected a surprising degree of optimism. Speaking to TIME editors, Campaign Chairman Robert Strauss boasted, "I have little doubt that the people will re-elect the President. I felt confident enough to make a couple of pretty good bets on it. And I bet with my head."

The hope of Strauss and his colleagues that Reagan can be overtaken is based in large part on their own experience in 1976 with the power of the incumbency. When Carter challenged President Gerald Ford, he led by 35 points in the polls. That lead dwindled through the fall until Carter managed to edge out Ford by only one point, and might have lost if the campaign had gone on another week or two. "The real crux of the problem is the nature of being a challenger," says Caddell.

In the view of the White House, Reagan is at a tremendous disadvantage because he will have to convince voters that he is responsible enough to keep the country out of dangerous confrontations in the nuclear age. Carter will strive to make that job even more difficult. Carter Media Man Gerald Rafshoon is already creating television spots around what the Carter people bluntly call "the button problem." The working title of one such advertisement questioning Reagan's coolness under pressure is called "Places He Would Attack."

The Carter campaign will also paint the Californian as a right-winger out of phase with the more moderate views of most Americans. (Said Reagan last weekend: "I do not think the image of me as Ebenezer Scrooge will sell.") Carter's aides admit Reagan is what they call a "likable ideologue," but they are convinced that he is vulnerable. Says Caddell: "The fact that he is liked does not take away from the fact that people perceive him as far more of an ideologue than most politicians."

This essentially anti-Reagan campaign may unite the Kennedy and Carter wings of the party in the polling booths on Nov. 4, but it is unlikely to generate much enthusiasm for the President. Just how to do that is the subject of dispute inside the Carter organization. One group believes that Carter's record is actually better than he gets credit for; the problem is that the White House has failed to communicate it effectively. Says an aide: "Carter can actually run on his record, as ridiculous as that may sound at first to some people." But Caddell disagrees. Says he: "I would suggest that there is little to be gained in trying to refight the past three years to prove some point that some people feel about the Administration's performance."

Carter aides of this persuasion hope that the President, instead of looking back, can project a vision of where he wants to lead the country. To date, as shown all too clearly by his acceptance speech, Carter has been unable to form such a vision in his own mind, let alone enunciate it.

The White House's strategy also depends heavily on besting Reagan in the presidential debates. Carter will hold out for head-to-head contests with Reagan. If the League of Women Voters, the debates' sponsor, includes Independent John Anderson in the lineup, the President will appear but probably also look for another forum in which to take on Reagan alone and, as far as he is concerned, the more times the better. Despite Reagan's formidable television talents, Carter is sure that his detailed knowledge of the government and the issues will give him an advantage.

As he tries to come from behind, Carter will face real problems across the country, even in the South, where he got 40% of his electoral votes in 1976. While strategists like Hamilton Jordan profess confidence about holding the South, they concede that more time and money will have to be spent this year than in 1976 to protect this base. As the President's analysts now see it, Carter only narrowly leads in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Reagan is ahead in Texas and Florida.

To offset the potential losses in the South, Carter's aides say they will make some effort to take California from Reagan, at least to the extent of making Reagan protect his base, thus tying up money and manpower he could use elsewhere. The Carterites believe they have a chance to take Washington and Oregon, especially if Anderson's strength declines as they predict. This could give them two states they did not win in 1976. But the Rocky Mountain and Western plains states seem to be firmly in Reagan's camp.

As usual, however, the major electoral battles will be fought out in the large industrial states of the Northeast and Midwest. Carter's aides are frank enough to admit that they are behind in nearly every one of these key states.

The hopes for turning this situation around rest essentially on the effectivness of the attacks on Reagan. The Republicans, similarly, hope to keep attention away from their candidate and on the failures of the Carter Administration.

Asked last week whether the election might not be decided in the end between some voters who feel "Reagan is going to be worse" and others who feel "Reagan can't be any worse," Caddell reluctantly replied: "That's a good capsule."

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