Wielding Africa's Oil Weapon

President Shagari vows to wage "holy war"against apartheid

The big and brawny west African country of Nigeria has ample cause to celebrate this week. It is 20 years since it achieved independence from Britain and one year since it returned to civilian democratic government after more than a decade of military rule. Beyond the purely commemorative reasons for rejoicing, Nigerians can revel in their emergence as black Africa's richest and most powerful nation--and a rising economic force on the world scene. With daily shipments to the U.S. of nearly 1 million bbl. of low-sulfur "sweet" crude oil, Nigeria ranks as the U.S. 's second largest supplier of foreign petroleum (after Saudi Arabia). Nigeria's staggering trade surplus with the U.S. this year is expected to top $11 billion--possibly more than that of any other nation. This week Nigerian President Alhaji Shehu Shagari will arrive in the U.S. to address the United Nations and pay a three-day official visit to Washington. In a wide-ranging, one-hour discussion with TIME Nairobi Bureau Chief Jack White at the State House in Lagos last week, Shagari left no doubt that he intends to use Nigeria 's formidable economic might for determined political aims both at home and abroad. White's report:

Shy, mild-mannered and bespectacled, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, 55, seems the very antithesis of the stereotypical boisterous Nigerian politician. But when the former school-teacher speaks, people listen. The reason: he is the leader of a country that boasts Africa's biggest population (90 million), largest standing army (130,000) and a G.N.P. of more than $50 billion. As one African diplomat puts it, "Whenever there is an important African issue, everyone waits to see what Nigeria decides. You can oppose it, but you must always take it into account."

Shagari's clout was evident at the July summit of the Organization of African Unity in Freetown, Sierra Leone. When the organization threatened to founder over the divisive issue of Morocco's war against the Algeria-backed Polisario guerrillas in the former Spanish Sahara, Shagari defused the crisis with a compromise peace-keeping plan. Similarly, it was Nigeria's displeasure over the executions of 13 top officials in Liberia that ultimately forced the erratic new regime of Sergeant Samuel Doe to refrain from further bloodspilling. With the exception of those states that actually border South Africa, Nigeria has done more than any other African nation to assist liberation movements in the white-ruled tip of the continent. As Shagari puts it, "This holy war against colonialism and racism in southern Africa is more important to us than anything else."

Shagari has moved on domestic is sues with the same quiet determination. Confronted this year with angry demands for an investigation into the alleged theft of a staggering $5.6 billion from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., Shagari appointed a special tribunal headed by a respected judge. The tribunal concluded that while the government-controlled N.N.P.C. had been grossly mismanaged, there was no proof of thefts on a large scale. The persuasive report headed off a vindictive probe into the oil company's affairs that might have enraged Nigeria's former military rulers and perhaps provoked another coup. "It was a delicate task," says an admiring Western diplomat. "He pulled it off with style." Shagari admits, however, that there is still a lingering possibility of a new military takeover. Says he: "The military handed over [power] voluntarily. They have a stake in the success of this experiment with democracy. But if the operators of the new government misuse it, I am sure the military will not sit back."

Nigeria's U.S.-style constitution is designed to break down the tribal animosities--notably among the dominant Hausa, Yoruba and Ibo tribes -- that a decade ago exploded into the most savage civil war in Africa's history. Explains Shagari, himself a member of the Fulani tribe: "The federal system was the only one that could contain all the diversities within our country." With a total of 250 tribes to contend with, the new constitution requires, among other things, political parties to prove they have significant followings in most areas of the country. Shagari was elected President as the standard-bearer for the centrist National Party of Nigeria, which is aligned mainly with the Hausa and Fulani. Nevertheless, he chose a respected Ibo urban planner, Alex Ekwueme, as his running mate.

On the economic front, Shagari's biggest problem is to find a way to convert Nigeria's oil earnings, which will total $25 billion this year, into stable development. Oil has been a mixed blessing for Nigeria, pumping billions into an economy that cannot absorb it. In search of quick wealth, millions of peasants have left the land for the overcrowded cities of Lagos (pop. 4.2 million), Ibadan and Port Harcourt. The influx has not only damaged Nigeria's farms and forced the country to depend on expensive food imports ($1.7 billion in 1979), it has also helped make Nigeria one of the world's most corrupt nations. Foreign businessmen routinely add 15% to 50% to the cost of contracts to provide the "dash" with which to bribe government officials.

Shagari envisions an extensive "green revolution" aimed at making Nigeria self-sufficient in food by the 1990s. Says he: "Agriculture is the priority of this administration." The plan will require a huge input of U.S. agricultural technology, which the Carter Administration is eager to provide. The sales would not only help reduce the American trade deficit with Nigeria, but also give the U.S. some diplomatic leverage on the issue that most divides the two nations: Nigeria's goal of trying to force black rule in South Africa by boycott.

Shagari is highly critical of Washington's policy to date. "The U.S. believes that apartheid South Africa can be talked into stopping its nefarious practices against mankind," he says. "I believe that it can never be talked into changing. There must be boycotts of all dealings with it." In order to persuade the U.S. and other Western nations to cut their trade ties with South Africa, Shagari warns, "I cannot rule out using our oil or anything else." Washington gets the point. Says one U.S. diplomat: "If they ever thought we were backing off from our commitment to majority rule, I have no doubt that Nigeria would cut off oil shipments to the U.S."

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